Best bet for Game 3 between Leafs and Panthers

It’s been a hot start to the second round for the Toronto Maple Leafs and Domenic Padula. 

For the Leafs, the team took care of business on home ice winning both games in Toronto to take the team’s first 2-0 series lead in the second round of the playoffs since 1987 (a series they would go on to lose in seven games).

And as for Mr. Padula, TSN’s senior sports betting analyst opened the series with two wins of his own. After cashing his best bets in the first two games, Game 3 has him looking for a 3-0 start to the series, as well. 

As the series shifts to Florida, Toronto’s -210 odds to advance come with an implied probability of 67.74 per cent, a stark difference from the +146 price tag they entered Round 2 with. 

Entering the second round, no team had longer odds to win their series than the Maple Leafs. Now they sit with the fourth-best odds to win the Stanley Cup. 

But before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let’s take a look at a few storylines to monitor tonight before getting a best bet from Dom as he looks to stay hot. 

Playoff Willy 

“He lives for this s***.” 

That’s what I said to my dad, a card-carrying member of the William Nylander Needs to Play Better Defence support group (they meet once a month and complain that the winger who’s paid to score goals doesn’t block enough shots... it’s mind blowing), after his goal in Game 2. 

It seems like Nylander always finds a way to elevate his play in the postseason and this year has been no different. 

The 29-year-old has six goals and 13 points in eight playoff games this year, leading the team in both categories. 

Among active players Nylander is 10th in postseason goals per game and, over the last five years, only Colorado Avalanche forward Nathan MacKinnon has a higher goals per game average than Nylander in the playoffs. 

In his last four playoff games against the Florida Panthers, Nylander has five goals.

He is +180 to add to his total tonight and +1200 to log the fifth multi-goal playoff game of his career. 

Tkachuk in the clutch 

With the Panthers trailing as the series shifts back to home ice, my focus turns to Matthew Tkachuk and his history of showing up when his back is up against the wall. 

Since arriving in Florida, Tkachuk has suited up for the Panthers in six games on home ice with his team trailing in a playoff series. 

In those six games, the American has four goals and eight points while leading the Panthers to four wins. 

After scoring three times and adding two assists in the first round, it’s been a slow start to the second round for Tkachuk with just one assist and three shots on goal. 

If the Panthers are going to get back in this series, we can expect Tkachuk to play his part and show up when they need him the most. 

Tkachuk is -225 to record a point and +175 to score in Game 3.  He is also  -144 to log at least three shots on goal in regulation and +375 for at least five shots on goal. 

Dom's Leafs-Panthers Game 3 Best Bet 

The Panthers entered this series as a heavy favourite and while they couldn’t get the job done in Toronto, they still haven’t lost a game on home ice.

The Maple Leafs turned a lot of heads with back-to-back wins to start the series, which should provide a confidence boost.

Still, I’m not willing to completely write off the defending Stanley Cup champions just yet, and neither are FanDuel bettors as they’ve been bet from -185 up to -230 to win Game 3.

In order to have a chance, Florida needs its top line to get going.

The trio of Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, and Carter Verhaeghe were relatively quiet in the first round.

If that group doesn’t click on home ice in Games 3 and 4, it will be curtains for the Panthers.

Verhaeghe was excellent during last year’s postseason run and will be asked to step up again for a team that is desperate for offence.

He should get plenty of looks again on the top line at 5-on-5 and on the top powerplay unit.

I’ll lock in Verhaeghe 1+ point and -125 as a FanDuel Best Bet for Game 3.