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Morning Coffee: Revisiting Hellebuyck’s odds to win the Hart Trophy
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Remember the column I wrote about this chapter of the NHL season being all about the league’s biggest superstars raising the bar with elite performances as the top contenders to win the Hart Trophy?
Sure, I’m no Hemingway, but I get the job done.
Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon, Nikita Kucherov and Connor McDavid have set the standard so high that there is now a definitive distinction between the big four and the rest of the league when it comes to the discussion for the league MVP.
Matthews, MacKinnon, Kucherov and McDavid are all currently shorter than 4-to-1 to win the Hart Trophy at FanDuel this morning.
Beyond the big four, nobody else is shorter than 50-to-1.
While the league’s biggest superstars have stolen the spotlight, there is one other name that still jumps out at me in terms of being deserving of Hart consideration, even if he’s unlikely to get it.
As it stands, he’s the biggest reason that the Winnipeg Jets are in contention for a Central Division title as well as a top-10 choice to win the Stanley Cup.
This is the Morning Coffee for Friday March 1st, 2024.
Revisiting Hellebuyck’s Odds To Win The Hart Trophy
Selective memory – human’s greatest illusion.
Does that ring a bell?
Wait, seriously – if you didn’t read the column, there’s still time to get caught up on the working thesis here.
That’s the good news.
The bad news is that you missed out on the return of the FanDuel Best Bet.
Nathan MacKinnon had 4+ shots on goal and the Colorado Avalanche had a 4-0 lead before the end of the second period, so the Same Game Parlay wasn’t even a sweat at +124 odds.
Another winner to end another winning month.
Check.
Okay, back to the real story here.
When I wrote that selective memory is human’s greatest illusion, I might have been referring to one or several things, but I wasn’t overlooking the franchise goaltender for the Jets in the Hart Trophy conversation.
Connor Hellebuyck leads the NHL with a 2.23 goals against average and a .924 save percentage this season.
More importantly, Hellebuyck leads the league in goals saved above expected by a significant margin.
He’s also recorded more wins than any goaltenders other than Alexander Georgiev and Thatcher Demko, each of which have played at least three more games.
Hellebuyck has posted a 5.22 wins above replacement, according to moneypuck.com.
No other goaltender has done better than a 3.11 wins above replacement this season.
Hellebucyk is the obvious favourite to win the Vezina Trophy at FanDuel at -310 odds.
That number translates to a 75.6 per cent implied probability.
No other goalie is shorter than +390 to win that award.
At this point, nobody should be surprised.
While MacKinnon just joined Kucherov at the 100-point mark at the top of the NHL scoring leaders table, Winnipeg currently has one point per game player in Mark Scheifele.
Defenceman Josh Morrissey ranks second on the team with 46 points in 58 games.
Goaltending is the team’s biggest strength and the reason the Jets are now considered legitimate Stanley Cup contenders.
In fact, Winnipeg has been one of the biggest movers when it comes to the Stanley Cup odds at FanDuel.
The Jets could be found as high as 45-to-1 to win it all at FanDuel back in the summer.
At the time, 17 NHL teams had shorter odds, including the Calgary Flames, Ottawa Senators, and Buffalo Sabres.
Winnipeg is now a top-10 choice to win it all at 13-to-1.
Only the Edmonton Oilers (+800), Colorado Avalanche (+850) and the Dallas Stars (+950) have shorter odds to win the Stanley Cup among Western Conference teams.
Meanwhile, the Jets will enter the weekend as the favourite to win the Central Division at FanDuel.
Even after last night’s loss, Winnipeg is just two points back of Dallas for first place in its division, but with four games in hand.
The Jets could be found as high as 13-to-1 to win the Central Division at FanDuel back in October.
Now they are the favourite to win it at -130, ahead of both the Stars (+220) and the Avalanche (+320).
As for the league’s MVP discussion, Hellebuyck is currently 50-to-1 to win the Hart Trophy at FanDuel.
While those are certainly long odds, the reality is that it’s still the big four and then everybody else in the MVP conversation.
Seriously, you still haven’t read Thursday’s column?
Hellebuyck, Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes, David Pastrnak, and Artemi Panarin are all 50-to-1 to win the Hart Trophy at FanDuel this morning.
That’s a testament to the brilliance demonstrated by Matthews, MacKinnon, Kucherov and McDavid so far this season, which has been the most fascinating aspect of this chapter of the NHL season as far as I’m concerned.
Is Hellebuyck worth consideration as a long shot to win the Hart Trophy at 50-to-1 odds?
While he certainly deserves consideration as a top-five choice to win the league’s MVP award, the reality is that it would likely take a dominant performance the rest of the way with numbers that are even better than what he has produced to date for him to rival the top four choices on the board.
Hellebuyck is the obvious Vezina Trophy favourite and certainly one of the most valuable players in the NHL.
Hockey fans aren’t going to overlook that.
It’s just that Matthews, MacKinnon, Kucherov and McDavid have been so good that anybody paying attention understands that the NHL’s best have separated from the pack with some remarkable numbers this season.
Only one player can win the Hart Trophy this season.
Hellebuyck might not win it, even if it’s obvious that he’s among the most valuable players in the NHL this season.