FanDuel Futures: Will The Steelers Go Over 7.5 Wins?

Death, taxes and…the Pittsburgh Steelers winning eight games or more? Correct. This has become an absolute certainty in the Mike Tomlin era, with their last losing season coming in *2003*. You know, the year before Facebook was invented! What makes this even more mind-blowing is the next team on that list is the Kansas City Chiefs, who last had a losing season way back in…2012.

How are they going to win eight games when the season is in a couple of weeks and the starting quarterback is still unknown? Well, did you watch Ben Roethlisberger last season? The same signal-caller who led the team to a nine-win season parlayed with a somewhat unexpected playoff appearance. He got it done (somehow) despite replacement-level statistics, so there’s hope for Mitchell Trubisky or Kenny Pickett.

Pittsburgh is +330 to make the playoffs on FanDuel, and I wouldn’t say this is something I’m overly confident in. However, their season win total over/under is 7.5 at FanDuel. Is eight wins really a stretch? Let’s go over some of the numbers.

What needs to happen for the Steelers to go over their win total at FanDuel? For starters, the offence would need to improve from an underwhelming performance in 2021. Pittsburgh ranked 25th overall in offensive EPA per play, second-worst to the Las Vegas Raiders among playoff qualifiers. If the touted draft class from 2022 has the impact that odds makers and betting markets are forecasting, this should be a no-brainer. 

Their star-studded defensive line was an integral part of a unit that lead the league in sacks with 55. The next best in the AFC North? Cleveland with 43. That’s their strength, and I don’t envision it changing any time soon. TJ Watt is the second choice (behind Myles Garrett) to win Defensive Player of the Year, while George Pickens and Kenny Pickett are co-favourites (+900) to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.

The schedule is always important to look at when diving into a team’s win totals before the season. We know they’ll face the Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals twice apiece. Can they win half of those games? For argument sake, Lets put them at 3-3 in the division - though they managed to go 4-2 with the shell of Roethlisberger at the helm in 2021. Can they find five more wins in the remaining 11 games? Here’s the remaining eleven matchups ranked from easiest to hardest based on FanDuel win totals for each opponent:

Vs Jets (5.5)

At Falcons (4.5)

At Panthers (6.5)

Vs Saints (8.5)

At Dolphins (8.5)

Vs Raiders (8.5)

Vs Patriots (8.5)

At Eagles (9.5)

At Colts (+9.5)

At Bills (11.5)

Vs Bucs (11.5)

The only games here that I consider an unlikely win would be against the Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the two teams with the shortest Super Bowl odds according to FanDuel. It’s also important to reiterate that this team went into Baltimore, Cleveland and Buffalo as underdogs in 2021 and won. They also beat the AFC top-seeded Tennessee Titans and swept Baltimore.

I’m not portraying this as a contending team, or even a division-winning team, but 7.5 (-105) at FanDuel is simply to low of a number for a franchise and coach who prove time and time again that no matter the situation, they’ll remain competitive. With an extra game added to the schedule and some intrigue and young blood at quarterback, I don’t see this trend changing any time soon.

Steelers over 7.5 wins is the play.