Game Of Throws: Texans remain the best team in NFL’s worst division
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The Carolina Panthers handed the Houston Texans a golden ticket when they allowed C.J. Stroud to fall to the second overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
The Texans cashed in with back-to-back 10-win seasons.
Whether or not they can take the next step as a playoff team is one of the most fascinating storylines to watch heading into Stroud’s third NFL season.
This offseason, Houston’s general manager Nick Caserio attempted to overhaul an offensive line that conceded the most sacks (52) in the AFC last season.
Stroud was sacked a league-high 25 times in four seconds or less – five more than any other NFL quarterback.
Stroud won’t turn 24-years-old until October, but he’s already been sacked 90 times in his first two NFL seasons.
It’s fair to wonder how long he can hold up if he continues to get hit at that rate.
Caserio clearly isn’t interested in finding out. Stroud appears to be happy with the progress.
The Texans traded tackle Laremy Tunsil and released guard Shaq Mason.
Houston acquired tackles Trent Brown and Cam Robinson in free agency, along with guards Ed Ingram and Laken Tomlinson.
They also selected tackle Aireontae Ersery in the second round of the 2025 NFL Draft.
The Texans have invested significant resources to improve their offensive line.
Now we’ll see if those new additions can develop chemistry together quickly and keep Stroud from eating another 50+ sacks this season.
Houston also drafted wide receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel in the second and third round, respectively.
The Texans were in good shape at wide receiver to start last season, but Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs both suffered season-ending injuries, while Nico Collins was banged up throughout the entire second half.
Collins has the talent to be a top 10 NFL wide receiver.
Houston is banking on Higgins, Noel, and free agent addition Christian Kirk to provide depth and take some of the pressure off Collins as the top option.
While fixing the pass protection was a top priority, Stroud will also benefit tremendously if the Texans offensive line can improve its run blocking.
Last season’s 68 per cent run blocking win rate was the second-worst mark in the entire NFL.
Running back Joe Mixon will miss at least the first four games of the season due to a foot injury so the team will lean on former Cleveland Browns bell cow Nick Chubb with a mix of Dameon Pierce and rookie Woody Marks.
However, that running back trio will only succeed with better blocking up front from a revamped line.
They also have a new play caller in offensive coordinator Nick Caley, who replaced Bobby Slowik this offseason.
Meanwhile, the Texans defence was excellent at the point of attack last season, ranking among the best units in the entire NFL in both sacks and run blocking.
Head coach DeMeco Ryans and defensive coordinator Matt Burke will want to concede fewer big plays, but with a focus on improving their offensive line and wide receiver depth, improvements must come from within.
Houston is still the best team in the AFC South on paper.
Nobody will be surprised the Texans to win their division at +110 has been a popular bet at FanDuel. In fact, the FanDuel traders told us that Houston accounts for four in every five bets on the AFC South winner.
85 per cent of all bets on the Texans regular season win totals have been on the overs. My biggest concern for Houston is its schedule.
Last season, the Texans benefited from one of the easiest schedules in the NFL.
While they get to play the other three AFC South teams twice, they also must play each team from the AFC West and NFC West, in addition to reigning division champions in the Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Their chances of repeating as division champions likely hinge on improvements on the offensive line and at wide receiver.
It’s hard for me to imagine those groups being any worse than they were last year. Improvements on the offensive line and at wide receiver should translate to this being the best team maintaining its spot as the best team in a bad division once again.
I’ll lock in Houston to win the AFC South at +110 as a FanDuel Best Bet for the 2025 NFL season.
Hopefully, the Texans can improve Stroud’s protection and make it three division titles in three seasons since their golden ticket fell into their lap in the 2023 NFL Draft.