Intelligent Hockey: Best Bets for Saturday’s Slate

For months, coaches and front offices spin stories, spew platitudes, and talk in euphemisms to the fans. But at the NHL trade deadline, we get to judge actions and not words. Buyer, seller, or bystander—in today’s column, the teams run the gamut.

Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars
Saturday, March 4 – 3:30 PM ET

Before the month of February, the Toronto Maple Leafs had scored one more goal than the Stars through each team’s first 51 games. Then the Stars slumped. Only the Philadelphia Flyers scored fewer goals than the Stars during the shortest month of the year.

At the trade deadline, Dallas acquired Max Domi to try to address its cratering secondary scoring. While the move may soon pay dividends, I’m bearish on the Stars’ scoring prospects against the Colorado Avalanche.

Before the Avs surrendered seven goals to the Devils on Wednesday, they were playing elite defensive hockey. In the first two months of 2023, only the Bruins and Stars had allowed fewer goals. A closer look at the advanced stats demonstrate that the Avs were giving up a lot of chances during that stretch, but their goaltending was tremendous. With a few days off, Alexandar Georgiev is primed to start, and he has been excellent this season, currently ranking in the top 10 in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx).

The Stars grudgingly live and die by their first line. Dallas coach Peter DeBoer likes playing his best forwards together, and it’s understandable why. The Jason Robertson-Joe Pavelski-Roope Hintz triumvirate outscores its opponents 37-18 at 5-on-5. In expected goals and high-danger chances percentage, it is dominant. The Stars have a forechecking bent, but the Robertson line provides the versatility to score off the rush and can gash opponents on the cycle.

But unless you are Jamie Benn and play with those three forwards on the first unit of the power play, scoring is a lot harder. Teenager Wyatt Johnston has been the No. 2 centre of this division leader, and impressively he’s held his own. He’s not a speedster, but he has really good hands and is a fierce competitor in one-on-one battles around the slot and in the corners. Johnston is currently on the hottest streak of his NHL career, having registered a point in four consecutive games.

But stringing together a handful of games with a point is extremely difficult, which is why I’m taking Johnston’s under. As promising as Johnston’s future may be, he only has scored a point in 25 of 62 games this season, so it is unlikely that his hot streak will continue. To provide context, Pavelski is one of the best American hockey players of his generation and is having another tremendous season on the Stars’ top line, but he hasn’t had a point streak that has exceeded four games.

The argument for fading Mason Marchment is simple. Marchment has value but is viewed harshly due to his contract, as he got overpaid in the off-season and his production this season has been disappointing. Marchment can retrieve the puck and stick his big frame in the low slot to create traffic, but playing on the third line with Tyler Seguin and Ty Dellandrea, he is a limited offensive player who doesn’t drive play. On Evolving Hockey, his offensive rating is -2.5.

The Stars will be playing their third game in four days, and it is an afternoon matchup, which means less time to rest. Even with Domi added, it’s hard to envision the Stars’ second and third lines lighting up the scoreboard at 5-on-5.

Picks: Wyatt Johnston U 0.5 points -130, Mason Marchment U 0.5 points -160

Nashville Predators at Chicago Blackhawks
Saturday, March 4 – 8 PM ET

The trade deadline was especially entertaining this season because of teams like the Predators that recognize they aren’t a viable Stanley Cup contender and were willing to sell off pieces. But then there are the SELLERS in all caps. Everyone with a modicum of skill must go as these teams demolished their competitiveness with both eyes focused on the future. Like Chicago.

For those who have watched recently, the Taylor Raddysh line, with Tyler Johnson and rookie Cole Guttman, has for long stretches appeared to be Chicago’s best forward trio. This line tries to stretch the ice, succeeds at involving the defencemen on the rush and cycle, and can lob the puck to the net as bodies are creating chaos. But reality sets in when I check the line’s 5-on-5 stats.

The Raddysh line is being outshot and is losing the shot-attempt battle. In expected goals and high-danger chances, it is a negative. The Predators aren’t good, but they are very likely starting Juuse Saros, who has been one of the league’s best goaltenders this season by GSAx, and I think a diluted Blackhawks defensive group is going to struggle against a Nashville team looking to wear it down with the forecheck. And while Nashville’s forward group is stripped down, the Predators’ defensive group still has capable puck-movers who can move the puck north.

Normally, players of Raddysh’s calibre aren’t available to fade, or the price is unpalatable. Raddysh isn’t fast. He doesn’t have a big shot and he’s not a gifted playmaker. He is a fourth-line energy player thrust into top-six forward minutes because of Chicago’s motivation to lose games.

On the man advantage as the net-front presence, Raddysh is effective providing screens and gives a worthy effort to tip pucks, but even when he moves into the bumper, he isn’t the most dangerous threat on a diminished power play. The Predators’ penalty kill is in the top half of the league, so power-play goals may be hard to come by for Chicago.

A streaky scorer at the best of times, Raddysh is mired in a cold spell with only two points since the start of February. I see that continuing against Nashville.

Pick: Taylor Raddysh U 0.5 points -135

Minnesota Wild at Calgary Flames
Saturday, March 4 – 10 PM ET

The Minnesota Wild and Calgary Flames occupy different positions in the postseason picture and acted accordingly. The Wild made a splashy move acquiring John Klingberg. The Flames did virtually nothing. Klingberg is a mobile, right-handed defenceman who will fit in nicely with the Wild’s style of play. Nevertheless, even with Klingberg joining Minnesota, this matchup between the Flames and Wild promises to be a game where goals are scarce.

For as many things that have gone wrong for the Flames, Mikael Backlund, Andrew Mangiapane, and Blake Coleman, who comprise the third line, have been a notable bright spot. They are outscoring opponents 20-5 at 5-on-5 while facing adversaries’ top players. Their percentage in expected goals and high-danger chances is spectacular. They play straight-line hockey, attacking the blue line with speed and effectively using their defencemen on the cycle. They were the Flames’ best line against the Maple Leafs on Thursday, with Coleman registering the team’s only goal. Playing at home on Saturday, they should get a steady dose of the Wild’s Kirill Kaprizov.

With all that being true, I still like Coleman’s under in points on Saturday. Since February 1st, only the Bruins have allowed fewer goals than the Wild. At 5-on-5 during that stretch, Minnesota is just outside the top in expected goals against and high-danger chances against. And even though Coleman can be a one-man transition off turnovers and can wedge himself in the slot for tips, his offence will need to come at 5-on-5 or shorthanded because he doesn’t receive power-play time. The Wild have been alternating goaltenders of late, and Coleman will likely be seeing the Gus Bus on Saturday. Since 2023 began, only two goaltenders have a better GSAx than Filip Gustavsson.

Taking under 1.5 points for Kaprizov sounds terrifying, but as productive as he is, Kaprizov has just 18 multi-point games in 62 contests this season. Furthermore, the last time he notched two or more points in consecutive games was Dec. 16 and 18. Having tallied two goals against Vancouver on Thursday night and facing the Backlund line, I’m dubious he repeats the feat.

As wonderful a player as Jared Spurgeon is, his offensive contributions on the score sheet are more modest. Partly that is because he doesn’t get first power-play minutes, but he also lacks the big shot of other No. 1 defencemen. His pinches, gaps, and interchanges are invaluable, but the addition of Klingberg is recognition by Minnesota’s front office that the team needs more scoring from the back end. Calgary does a fantastic job of controlling the puck and funneling shots on net, so it’s not entirely clear how many offensive looks Spurgeon will get, especially on the cycle where the Flames are stingy.

I see this as a low-scoring game. Therefore, the opportunity to take unders against a depth forward in Coleman, a superstar forward in Kaprizov facing a difficult shutdown line while needing two or more points to hit the over, and a defenceman who doesn't lead his team's defensive group in points is too good to pass up.

Picks: Blake Coleman U 0.5 points -180, Kirill Kaprizov U 1.5 points -155, Jared Spurgeon U 0.5 points -190

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