Intelligent Hockey: Sens look to stay hot, Leafs set to correct course

The prediction business is one that swims in the sea of probability. When the sample size is small, it’s important to try to see tomorrow’s headlines today. Here they are fresh off the press.

The Detroit Red Wings’ team defence isn’t going to be able to protect Ville Husso indefinitely. No way the Toronto Maple Leafs will lose three straight and go under .500 at the hands of the slowly drowning Tampa Bay Lightning. The Vancouver Canucks crushed the Edmonton Oilers, who are in distress, but the numbers indicate that the Florida Panthers should roll over Vancouver at home.

Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators

Saturday October 21 – 1:00 PM ET

On paper, the Ottawa Senators checked all the boxes heading into the 2023-24 season. They have elite talent, depth and versatility in playing style. In 5-on-5 expected goals and high-danger chances in 2022-23, they fared roughly the same as the eventual Stanley Cup champs, the Vegas Golden Knights. But to make a leap into the playoffs, the Senators, who have finished no better than sixth in the Atlantic Division over the last four seasons, require something they have sorely lacked: consistency.

So far, so good for the 2023-24 season. After dropping their first game to Carolina, the Senators have ripped off three straight wins and won by three or more in each contest. They are receiving scoring from everywhere: their nucleus, depth forwards, and defencemen. At their best, the Senators are multi-dimensional, able to win with their heavy forecheck down low, on the rush, or on the power play. But their adversary on Saturday enters the contest on a similar tear.

The Red Wings have won three straight and have had one nearly unstoppable line as the tip of the spear in the Lucas Raymond-Dylan Larkin-Alex DeBrincat triumvirate. Through two games, they are doubling their opponents in scoring at 5-on-5 and outshooting them by a 10-shot differential. But in Ottawa, Detroit will face a heavy dose of Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub, the Senators’ shutdown defensive pairing.

Despite very difficult usage, Sanderson and Zub give the Senators the edge in high-danger chances and expected goals percentage when they are on the ice. Both defencemen have the mobility to step up and deny an opposing clean entry while their partner scoops up the dump-in to snap a quick pass to the outlet for the Ottawa breakout. This is salient because Detroit’s Larkin line has exceled at finding the cross-seam pass off clean entries. If Ottawa brings back pressure, that will allow Sanderson and Zub to take an aggressive posture at the blue line to force the chip and chase.

It would be a mistake to overlook the potential impact Red Wings goaltender Ville Husso could have on Saturday. Last season, he was the worst in the NHL in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) among goaltenders who played 40 or more games. This season, he has been fine, posting a 0.54 GSAx. No doubt that has been aided by a Detroit defence that statistically has been very stingy in the advanced stats, albeit in a small sample size.

And yet, one wonders if Husso is at risk of imploding at any moment. His time in the NHL has been one stellar season bookended by awful seasons. Conversely, with forward Josh Norris back in the fold, the Senators have one more dangerous scorer who allows them to roll a top nine that can match any team in the league.

I think that the Senators are deeper, I like the matchup between Sanderson and Zub for Ottawa against the Red Wings’ first line, and I fear Husso is a ticking time bomb.

Pick: Senators Moneyline -154

Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning

Saturday October 21 – 7:00 PM ET

The storylines are unceasing in the Atlantic Division, and Toronto and Tampa Bay offer two of the juiciest. The Maple Leafs had a rip-roaring beginning to their season, with Auston Matthews notching consecutive hat tricks and Toronto winning high-scoring games with six and seven on the board against Montreal and Minnesota respectively.

Then came the goal drought. Over the past two games, the Maple Leafs have registered two combined goals. It gets worse. As highlighted by the TSN broadcast, the Maple Leafs surrendered 16 rush scoring chances against the Chicago Blackhawks, which is the most rush scoring chances allowed by Toronto in a single game since 2018-19.

Heading into Saturday, the Maple Leafs are at risk of losing three straight games, which is something that happened to them only once over the full 82 games last regular season. (It also happened in October.) But I think Tampa Bay, a traditional foil for Toronto, is just what this Maple Leafs team needs because the Lightning are in a crisis that is far more perilous.

There is talk about the Lightning’s struggles in their own zone being a byproduct of the installation of new zone schemes. Sure. But it has been really, really ugly. Even in their win against Vancouver on Thursday night, the Lightning struggled to kill plays, getting hemmed in for long stretches at a time. The breakout is a mess. Lightning defencemen are spitting up pucks on their first passes, and the outlets aren’t offering much relief. In defensive coverage, opposing players are being left alone by a slow read, or Tampa Bay players are finding themselves on the wrong side of the puck.

The Maple Leafs would appear positioned to capitalize, as they are eager to initiate the cycle and spread their opponent out, opening up the slot. On faceoff set plays in the offensive zone, the Maple Leafs do a really nice job activating their defencemen to engineer a pass to Leafs skaters cutting toward the net.

Against the Panthers, the Maple Leafs struggled to combat the forecheck, giving Florida too many counterattack chances. Toronto also was the slower team on too many Panthers’ retrievals. That shouldn’t be an issue against the Lightning.

Toronto should be harnessing the stretch pass to advance the puck toward the offensive zone as quickly as possible and should find much more room through the middle of the ice. In previous matchups, goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy could be the great equalizer for nullifying his team’s inconsistent play. In a way, Tampa back-up Jonas Johansson can do that in reverse, possessing the ability to mask Toronto’s substandard goaltending with poor play of his own.

Drama and handwringing follow the Maple Leafs, but it’s hard to envision them missing the postseason. For the Lightning, their lack of depth and current goaltending pose significant issues that run the risk of torpedoing their playoff chances. I like Toronto to rebound in a big way.

Pick: Maple Leafs Moneyline -128

Vancouver Canucks at Florida Panthers

Saturday October 21 – 7:00 PM ET

Right near the end of college, you start to realize that you’ll never be walking distance to all your friends ever again. It was a blast while it lasted, but the party is over.

We’re in a similar “we need to cherish these moments” period in terms of fading the Vancouver Canucks when they are facing a playoff-caliber foe. In the not-too-distant future, the odds will reflect that this team is irredeemably flawed. After crushing the Edmonton Oilers in Game 1 and then edging them out in Game 2, the Canucks have dropped their past two games and their total body of work is not good.

The Canucks are bottom-three in high-danger chances and expected goals at 5-on-5. Goaltender Thatcher Demko is nearly standing on his head, registering 27 high-danger saves (which leads the NHL) and is top five in GSAx. The Canucks’ shooting percentage is 14.56, which will inevitably drop. The defensive group is bad despite being anchored by Quinn Hughes, who has been magnificent. On X, Thomas Drance from The Athletic threw out a crazy stat worth underscoring. In nearly 100 minutes, the Canucks have not allowed a goal when Quinn Hughes is on the ice. Sadly, Hughes cannot play 60 minutes. And the Panthers make for a very challenging opponent.

The Panthers relish getting the puck from behind the goal line to the point, and then forcing their opponent to box them out while they try to position themselves for tips. Even with top defencemen like Brandon Montour and Aaron Ekblad out, the Panthers have been effective at getting shots through and scoring through deflections.

While the Panthers are primed to dominate the Canucks off the forecheck, I think they’ll find a lot of success off the rush too. The Panthers gap up well and create turnovers in the neutral zone, and Florida’s forwards do an excellent job creating picks to open up shooting and skating lanes. Florida also has a few burners who can zip past a defender with a well-placed area pass.

I don’t think the Canucks will be able to match the Panthers’ blend of heaviness and speed. With Florida at home, the Panthers will be able to move their best scorers away from Hughes.

Pick: Panthers Moneyline -142