Barnes unfazed by lofty expectations ahead of sophomore season

TORONTO – Scottie Barnes could do no wrong in his first NBA season.

With the Raptors coming off a lost campaign in Tampa, the young do-it-all forward brought some much-needed excitement and enthusiasm back to Toronto. He endeared himself to his new team and its fans with his hard play and upbeat personality, and with an impressive set of physical tools and versatile skill set, he also made an immediate impact on the floor.

Oh, and crucially, he did it all en route to winning the league’s Rookie of the Year award. That nobody saw his rapid ascension coming made it even more special.

It’s not that people didn’t expect Barnes to be good, or even great, but very few could have envisioned it happening right away. When Masai Ujiri and Bobby Webster selected him with the fourth-overall pick in the 2021 draft – opting for the Florida State product over the consensus choice, Gonzaga guard Jalen Suggs – the 20-year-old was viewed as more of a long-term prospect.

He was promising but raw, most thought at the time. So, when he far exceeded those modest expectations in Year 1, there wasn’t much to critique. Like most rookies, he had his learning moments but, overall, there were far more ups than downs.

What happens next will be fascinating.

As Barnes gets set to begin his sophomore season, the expectations have gone way up. And that’s fair; there should be a lot expected of him. Perhaps the most impressive thing about his rookie campaign was that, unlike most first-year players, he got stronger as it went on. Whenever he seemed to be hitting a wall, he’d power through and come out of it even better than before. It was his post all-star break push that allowed him to catch and ultimately pass Cavaliers big man Evan Mobley in the tight Rookie of the Year race.

So, naturally, people are excited about what he might look like following a full off-season of training. But in some cases, where folks are getting too overzealous in their short-term projections, those sky-high expectations need to be tempered.

Young players develop at different rates, even the really good ones, and growth isn’t always linear. It’s safe to assume that Barnes will take a meaningful step forward this coming season, but if you’re hoping for him to make that meteoric leap towards super stardom, you may be disappointed.

“I think everybody should manage their expectations,” said Fred VanVleet, the Raptors’ point guard and eternal voice of reason. “I said it before last year, and I know Rookie of the Year doesn’t really help that situation – you expect another monster jump. But he’ll be fine. He’s a heck of a player and he’s a great kid. There will be ups, there will be downs, but I don’t think anybody’s worried about Scottie.”

So, what would be a realistic and attainable jump? For a player like Barnes, who impacts the game in so many facets, it could be tough to measure incremental growth in the box score.

In 74 games last season, he averaged 15.3 points, 7.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists on 49 per cent shooting from the field and 30 per cent from three-point range. Given the amount of work he put into his jumper this summer, it’s reasonable to think that his three-point percentage should start to trend upwards. He’ll likely take more than the 12.6 shots he averaged a year ago; the question is whether he can maintain his efficiency with an increased volume of attempts. The Raptors have talked about getting the ball in his hands more, which makes sense considering he was fifth on the team in usage as a rookie, so his assist rate could also climb.

But remember, while his role will continue to grow, there’s a limit to how featured he can be on this team, provided everybody is healthy. At best, he’ll likely be behind a pair of all-stars, Pascal Siakam and VanVleet, in the offensive hierarchy. Assuming those three start games alongside Gary Trent Jr., who certainly isn’t shy about getting his shots up, and O.G. Anunoby, who is also clamouring for a bigger role – that’s a lot of mouths to feed.

Getting drafted by a winning organization comes with some obvious advantages and has been beneficial to Barnes’ overall development, and probably his case for Rookie of the Year. It also means he won’t be force fed opportunities like some of his peers on rebuilding teams. Even minutes could be harder to come by this year.

Last season, the Raptors tried to balance winning with development but whenever they had to veer in one direction, they almost always prioritized the later. Every once in a while, head coach Nick Nurse would give him the quick hook after making a mistake, letting him watch from the bench for a few minutes before subbing him back in, but for the most part he was allowed to learn on the fly, even if it came at the cost of a win or two. That may not be the case now that winning appears to be higher on the priority list.

“I think [we were] maybe a little more lenient last year, just getting him minutes was a high priority,” Nurse said. “Now he’s got to [have] impactful minutes.”

The area of his game that could probably stand to improve most in Year 2 is on defence, where his potential remains limitless. To this point, he’s looked more comfortable guarding in the post – where he can use his size, strength and length – than moving his feet and defending out on the perimeter. His stated preference is to handle the ball and play point guard, something he did a lot of towards the end of the season and will do even more of this year. He’s got the skills for it, on both ends of the floor, but if that’s how they want to deploy him, he’ll have to do a better job of hanging with smaller and quicker guards.

“I think especially with our team, the way it’s [shaking] out on the stat sheet, it’s probably gonna change fairly dramatically each night,” said Nurse. “Understanding that you can have a really good performance and some nights that’s gonna mean 18 points and some nights that’s gonna mean eight points, but it can still be a really good performance all around.”

“We just need to keep plugging away and get him feeling [good] so he can be out there playing really hard. I always say that is his key. Is his energy and enthusiasm going to remain at the same level it was a year ago as the new kid in the candy store? If it does then he doesn’t have much to worry about.”

Four contests into Toronto’s five-game exhibition slate and we still haven’t seen that energetic, high impact version of Barnes. His slow start to the preseason could be the product of an ankle injury he sustained while driving to the basket in a workout last month. He was shut down for three weeks ahead of training camp and, as a result, is still working to get his conditioning back.

“Scottie is playing a little bit of catch up here and it’s noticeable,” Nurse said of Barnes, who’s averaging just 6.3 points and shooting 36 per cent on 5.5 field goal attempts and has yet to make a three during exhibition. “I don’t think he has shown a whole lot here in the preseason.”

“I feel like I’m pushing myself to try to get back in shape,” Barnes added. “I’m getting there. I feel like I’m close.”

To his credit, Barnes remains unfazed by the heightened expectations. That’s one of the things the team liked about him in the pre-draft process – he doesn’t get too high or too low, he’s just Scottie. And when push comes to shove, he’s all about winning.

“I just go on the floor and try to help us win any way possible,” he said. “I try to have that impact on the floor defensively, offensively, try to take what’s given to me, just try to play the right way. I don’t really think about [the expectations] when I’m on the floor.”

“I feel like if we win, the other things come with it. So I really try to focus on winning.”

That approach will serve him well over the course of what should be a long and successful NBA career. Make no mistake, he’s a really good player and he has the chance to be an all-time great player. It’s all there – the body, the skill, the work ethic and the drive. But these things take time. Don’t be surprised, or disappointed, if it doesn’t happen overnight.

“He’s gotta play for his own expectations first,” VanVleet said. “I don’t really think he’s playing for anybody else’s expectations other than his. He’s a winning player. I think if we win basketball games, that’s all that matters. Whatever you guys have him being, I think that’s kind of pointless. It’s gotta be up to him to be who he wants to be. For us, as long as he’s doing the things that help contribute to winning, I don’t really care what that looks like.”