Bellus’ Betting Breakdown: Is it Finally the Year for Minnesota?

Sometimes there are teams that just call my name. 

And this season, Kirk Cousins and his Minnesota Vikings won’t leave me alone. 

For years I have watched this team and cursed their head coach, Mike Zimmer. 

Zimmer wasn’t a bad head coach, he had a .562 winning percentage over eight years, and even won a few playoff games. 

But Zimmer also wasn’t a great coach. At times, the Vikings felt like an uninspired group, with an uninspiring person at the helm. 

But things have changed. 

Zimmer was fired following an 8-9 campaign in 2021, missing the playoffs for the third time in the last four seasons and bringing an end to his tenure in Minnesota that often left people scratching their heads. 

Now, fresh off winning a Super Bowl as an offensive coordinator with the Los Angeles Rams, Kevin O’Connell is in command of the Vikings in 2022. 

And he takes over a team that needs to be more efficient on offence. 

Despite having Dalvin Cook go for 1,383 yards from scrimmage, Minnesota was one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL last season in terms of efficiency. Closing the year 28th in the league in expected points added via rushing (-36.9 EPA) while ranking 17th in yards per carry. 

Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins enters Year 11 looking to do more Kirk Cousins-like things. 

Since 2018, Cousins has eclipsed the 4,200-yard mark three times and his 4,221 yards from last season ranked ninth in the league. 

During those four seasons, Cousins ranks seventh among all quarterbacks in passing yards. 

I like this Vikings roster. I mean, how could you not? 

The team made some key signings on defence during the off-season, adding linebackers Jordan Hicks and Za'Darius Smith, and bolstered their D-line with nose tackle Harrison Phillips. 

The team also grabbed safety Lewis Cine, after he won a National Championship with Georgia, at the end of the first round with the 31st pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. 

With an offensive-minded head coach in charge, I think this is the year we see the Vikings give the Green Bay Packers a run for their money in the division. 

Let’s dive into some reasons why I think this year’s team will make up for all the disappointments of Vikings’ teams from the past. 

A Change in Philosophy 

Kevin O’Connell comes from a system that has ranked fourth in early-down pass rate (56.4 per cent) in neutral game script over the past two seasons. 

Over that same period of time, Minnesota has ranked 26th with a rate of 49 per cent. 

And it’s hurt the team. 

For a few seasons, this team’s efficiency numbers have been better through the air, than they have been on the ground. 

However, Zimmer liked to run the ball so they ran the ball more often than they should have. 

 A change of philosophy on early downs could open up an offence that certainly isn’t the same as last year’s Los Angeles Rams, but it sure isn’t too far behind. 

Wide receiver Justin Jefferson has gotten high praise from his new head coach, who compared him to Cooper Kupp earlier in training camp. 

“The one thing about Cooper Kupp this past season is he lined up in a lot of different spots.” O’Connell said, “ It was hard for defences to really know where he was. He did a lot of different things. I see that with Justin. I see an incredible, incredible skill set, but I also see a player we can move around.”

Enter Adam Thielen and you have a duo that almost any organization would drool over. 

On top of their dynamic wideouts, three-time Pro Bowler Dalvin Cook also looms in the backfield. 

Last season, Rams’ running backs accounted for 183 pass routes in the slot or lined up out wide; meanwhile, Cook and Alexander Mattison combined for just 59 such routes with the Vikings. 

Getting Cook more involved in the pass game could be a great way to get him more room in space to make plays happen. 

A more efficient passing game will only open up more room on the ground for Cook. 

Cook, despite the inefficient numbers, has rushed for at least three straight 1,100-yard seasons, has been one of the league’s best running backs since 2019 and his new coach might unlock another level to his game.  

NFC North 

Minnesota had a tough draw last year and had one of the worst schedules based on rest. 

They played five games in 2021 against opponents who had over a week to prepare for them, but just one game when their opponent had less than a week to prepare for them. 

However, their schedule is more favourable in terms of rest advantages this season.

They’ll play three games this season against a team that has over a week to prepare for them; however, for two of those games, Minnesota will be at home. 

On the flip side, they have a rest advantage twice this year and both of those games are at home. 

They’ll also get an extra home game this season, as will the rest of the NFC, after AFC teams benefited from the extra home game last season due to the addition of a 17th game on the schedule.

The Vikings also catch a slight break with getting to open the season against the Packers at home. 

With Davante Adams out of Green Bay, the team could need a few weeks before getting that offence fully up to speed. 

It’s something that could play right into the Vikings hands and lead to a massive Week 1 win within the division. 

After the Packers, the NFC North is as open as it gets. 

The Lions will be feisty, and win some games this year, but they don’t instill a ton of fear in opposing teams when it comes to thinking about a divisional title. 

And then there’s the Chicago Bears, a team that TSN Edge lead producer Domenic Padula has been telling me to fade at every opportunity possible. 

It really feels like Minnesota enters this season in the best situation of any team in the division for instant, and season-long, success.

One-Score Games  

Almost every game Minnesota played was a close, one-score game in 2021. 

Fourteen games to be exact, and the Vikings went 6-8. 

Over the last two years, no team has played more one-score games than the Vikings (24). 

And while their record in those games has been perfectly average (12-12), it hasn’t been good enough to get them over the hump to make the playoffs. 

With O’Connell in command, we can only hope that he will be more aggressive in situations and manage the game better than Zimmer did and try to swing a a few one-point games in his team’s favour in 2022.