Maple Leafs likely to face major change if season ends in second round

The Toronto Maple Leafs are on the brink of elimination after an ugly 6-1 loss to the Florida Panthers in Game 5 of their second-round series on Wednesday night.

A loss in Game 6 – or Game 7 – would leave the Maple Leafs with just two series wins over the nine straight years the team has made the postseason. The Panthers eliminated the Maple Leafs in five games in the second round of the 2023 playoffs after Toronto advanced in the postseason for the first time since 2004.

The Maple Leafs are staring down an off-season filled with uncertainty as Mitch Marner and John Tavares approach unrestricted free agency and the contract of team president Brendan Shanahan is believed to be expiring as well.

TSN Hockey Insider Chris Johnston writes in The Athletic that there’s “a growing sense” Marner wants a fresh start after years of criticism in the Toronto market.

“There is absolutely zero reason to believe that he’ll be signing another contract in Toronto on or before July 1 – not after refusing to negotiate an in-season extension with the Leafs or even considering a request from management to waive his no-movement clause at the trade deadline,” Johnston wrote Thursday. “Everything is lining up for him to walk free.”

The Maple Leafs approached Marner about waiving his no-movement clause in a deal with the Carolina Hurricanes for Mikko Rantanen, who was eventually dealt to the Dallas Stars just weeks after the Hurricanes acquired him from the Colorado Avalanche. Johnston reported at the time that the Maple Leafs forward Matthew Knies – who is a pending restricted free agent – and other future assets were discussed between the two clubs as general manager Brad Treliving pursued a path to land Rantanen.

The 28-year-old winger signed an eight-year, $96 million contract as part of the trade to Dallas, leaving Marner as the clear top remaining unrestricted free agent ahead of July 1.

While Rantanen has dominated in the postseason for the Stars with nine goals and 19 points in 11 games, Marner is struggling once again under the playoff spotlight.

The 28-year-old Markham, Ont., native has two goals and 12 points in 11 games. He was a minus-2 in Wednesday’s Game 5, committing a costly turnover that led to Florida’s third goal. 

"No thoughts of that at all," Marner replied when asked he'd thought about the loss being his final home game with the Maple Leafs. "Reset, it's obviously not the spot that we want to be in but you can't doing anything about it. We knew this was going to be a roller-coaster of a ride. You know it's not going to be easy.

"We've got to have the mindset to go into Florida and take it shift by shift and win a hockey game."

Marner crossed the 100-point mark for the first time in his career this season, finishing with 27 goals and 102 points in 81 games. He spent the year playing out the last of a six-year, $65.41 million contract signed in 2019. His $10.9 million cap hit left him as the league’s 12th-highest paid player this season.

Tavares, who handed over the team's captaincy to Auston Matthews last summer, is the tied for the NHL’s ninth-highest cap hit this season at $11 million in the last of a seven-year, $77 million signed as an unrestricted free agent in 2018.

Johnston writes that Tavares “has repeatedly expressed a desire to stay but may not be granted that opportunity.”

The 34-year-old Mississauga, Ont., native has five goals and seven points in 10 games in these playoffs. He enjoyed a strong regular season with 38 goals and 74 points in 75 games.

Shanahan declined to confirm the status of his contract last summer. He signed a six-year deal in 2019 that is believed to be coming to an end.

“My contract status will not be a distraction,” Shanahan said last May after a first-round exit for the Maple Leafs and the firing of head coach Sheldon Keefe.

Shanahan joined the Maple Leafs in 2014. The team drafted star winger William Nylander just months later, selected Marner in the first round one year later and took Matthews with the first overall pick in 2016.

The promise of nine straight playoff berths is on the brink of resulting in zero trips to the Eastern Conference Final and, as a result, change could be on the horizon if things don't turn around.