By The Numbers: Playoffs on the line as Blue Jays enter stretch run

The Toronto Blue Jays are entering the stretch run of the 2023 MLB season in a four-team race for the remaining two American League Wild-Card positions.

Toronto is currently a game behind the Seattle Mariners and a game-and-a-half behind the Houston Astros for the second and third wild-card spots while the Boston Red Sox are three games behind the Blue Jays.

One of the reasons the Blue Jays are in contention for the playoffs is because their record has been consistent throughout the regular season. While the club has not dominated for any extended period, they have had winning months in April (18-10), June (16-11), and July (14-10) and only struggled in May, going 11-17.

August has remained the same for the Jays, where they are currently 10-8 with series victories over the Red Sox and Cincinnati Reds, series losses to the Baltimore Orioles and Chicago Cubs, and series splits with the Philadelphia Phillies and Cleveland Guardians.

The struggles Toronto have had in August stem from a floundering offence, only scoring 17 runs and stranding 52 runners on base. This was highlighted by a pair of 1-0 losses to the Guardians and Reds that saw Toronto register 12 total hits and strand 14 runners.

Toronto has struggled with runners in scoring position all season. In 1,089 at-bats with runners on second base or third, the Jays are batting .249, converting only 368 of them into runs, ranking in the bottom third of the league.

One of the reasons for the team's offensive struggles has been star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has had an off year by his standards. The 24-year-old is slashing .265/.344/.432 with 18 home runs in 121 games this season, well below his peak of two years ago when he finished second in American League MVP voting.

In August, the 6-foot-2 infielder is slashing .238/.333/.333 with one home run in 63 at-bats and has grounded into three double-plays.

The Blue Jays were also without all-star shortstop Bo Bichettte for three weeks due to a knee injury. The 25-year-old is among MLB leaders with a .320 batting average (sixth), and 147 hits (fourth) in 108 games, putting him in the upper-tier for hitters in the majors.

The Blue Jays have been in and around a wild-card spot for the majority of the season behind the division-leading Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East, as well as the Astros for the final wild-card spot. The Jays have fallen out of the last playoff slot, but that has less to do with how the Blue Jays are playing and more to do with the meteoric rise of the Mariners.

Seattle is 15-4 in August, which includes an eight-game win streak to start the month and a current seven-game winning streak. During this 18-game stretch, the Mariners are hitting .282 and outscoring their opponents 97-65.

Outfielder Julio Rodriguez has been the catalyst, slashing .278/.336/.462 this season with 21 home runs and 79 RBIs. He's taken his game to another level in August, hitting .412 with four home runs and 22 RBIs.

Meanwhile, the Astros have fallen closer to the Blue Jays and Mariners, going 11-8 in August so far. They are coming off a tough weekend after the Mariners swept and outscored them 19-9 in the three losses. This included a 10-3 beatdown on Saturday where left-handed ace Framber Valdez referred to himself as "trash" after giving up six earned-runs in five innings.

Coming down the stretch, the Jays’ season will likely ride on how well they play within their division as 18 of their last 37 games are against AL East opponents, including six games each against the New York Yankees and Rays. The team has struggled within their own division this season going 11-23, but they also have not played the Yankees and Rays since the end of May.

The most important series for Toronto could be be a three-game clash with the Red Sox in September. The Blue Jays have struggled against Boston earlier in the season, going 0-7 after a four-game set in May and a three-game series in July. However, the Blue Jays rebounded by sweeping the Red Sox at the beginning of August and will need to continue that dominance in order to put an end to the Red Sox's bid for a postseason appearance.

Overall, the Jays will face teams that are over .500 in 17 of their last 37 games, giving them a relatively easy schedule to end the season. However, while the Mariners and Astros each face stronger teams for the remainder of their schedules, they also play one another for a three-game set at the end of September, which will have giant consequences for the AL wild-card picture.

With Seattle getting hot at the right time and the known pedigree of the defending World Series champion Astros, the Jays will need to finish August strong and take another step forward in September in order to have any postseason aspirations.