A Blue Jays Opening Day roster projection

TORONTO — With less than a week to go until Opening Day in St. Louis and the season-opening 10-game road trip that faces them, the Toronto Blue Jays roster is looking just as it did a month ago.

The same can’t be said for other contenders around baseball.

At this time of year, the best-laid winter plans can change in an instant.

Just ask the division-rival New York Yankees, who will start the season with 40 per cent of their starting rotation on the IL in Frankie Montas and Carlos Rodon.

Or the Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies, teams that watched Gavin Lux and Rhys Hoskins go down with devastating knee injuries.

The Houston Astros, New York Mets and Tampa Bay Rays — Jose Altuve, Edwin Diaz and Tyler Glasnow — haven’t been immune, either, as many a contender has been forced to endure potentially season-altering injuries this spring.

Health is the one thing that could’ve impacted this Blue Jays roster in March, and other than a relatively minor Vladimir Guerrero Jr. knee scare, it hasn’t up to this point with just a few days of pretend baseball to go.

A quiet spring means little in the way of job battles or roster drama, but here’s a look at how the 26-man roster likely lines up for next week against the Cardinals.

ROTATION

Alek Manoah Toronto Blue Jays

1. RHP Alek Manoah (at St. Louis)
2. RHP Kevin Gausman (at St. Louis)
3. RHP Jose Berrios (at St. Louis)
4. RHP Chris Bassitt (at Kansas City)
5. LHP Yusei Kikuchi (at Kansas City)

Not much has changed here. 

It was pretty well known that Yusei Kikuchi would’ve needed to completely implode this spring not to get another run with the No. 5 starter job, and he’s done the opposite, generally looking pretty locked in with a revamped arsenal and a focus on filling up the zone. 

The only questions at this point have to do with how they line the rotation up for the first series. 

It’s likely Manoah gets a chance to make up for his playoff clunker on Opening Day, followed by Gausman, but who gets the ball in the finale in St. Louis is up for debate.

Whether it’s Berrios or Bassitt likely depends on what the analytics department spits out about the matchup versus the Cards bats, as well as the Kansas City Royals. Berrios also has a career 4.81 ERA at Kauffman Stadium in KC, but Bassitt has been worse in just two starts with a 6.48 ERA there.

I don’t have access to the R&D department’s computers, so I’ll just say Berrios gets the nod in game three as they look to rebuild his confidence.

BULLPEN

Jordan Romano Toronto Blue Jays

1. RHP Jordan Romano
2. RHP Erik Swanson
3. LHP Tim Mayza
4. RHP Yimi Garcia
5. RHP Adam Cimber
6. RHP Anthony Bass
7. RHP Trevor Richards
8. TBD

RHP Zach Pop
RHP Zach Thompson
RHP Trent Thornton
RHP Nate Pearson
RHP Jay Jackson (NRI)

IL—RHP Mitch White (shoulder; could return in April)
IL—LHP Hyun Jin Ryu (elbow; could return in July or August)
IL—RHP Chad Green (elbow; could return in July or August)

Another area where the Jays have enjoyed the good fortune of staying healthy, this group will run it back with six of the same eight arms that finished the season in Pete Walker’s bullpen last October. 

The new guy is Swanson, who will immediately be inserted into a vital setup role ahead of Romano. 

The final job was slated to be Mitch White’s in a long-man role, but a shoulder injury has slowed the right-hander this spring, leaving an IL stint to start the year looking likely.

If that happens, any of Zach Thompson, Zach Pop, Trent Thornton or Nate Pearson — all on the 40-man roster — or one of the handful of non-roster invites in camp could break camp with the big club. 

Again, that will depend more on need in the first series in St. Louis rather than any long-term projection.

Out of the NRIs in camp, 35-year-old righty Jay Jackson has stood out the most with 13 strikeouts and zero earned runs allowed across 9.1 innings, but they’d have to add him to the 40-man roster first.

With starters limited early in the year, it’s likely they’ll opt for some length rather than another one-inning arm, but with a day off and a rest for the ‘pen scheduled for Friday, their options are open.

LINEUP

Bo Bichette Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Toronto Blue Jays

1. RF George Springer (R)
2. SS Bo Bichette (R)
3. 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)
4. DH Brandon Belt (L)
5. C Alejandro Kirk (R)
6. LF Daulton Varsho (L)
7. 3B Matt Chapman (R)
8. 2B Whit Merrifield (R)
9. CF Kevin Kiermaier (L)

With veteran Adam Wainwright starting the season on the IL, the odds-on favourite to start opening day for the Cardinals is right-hander Miles Mikolas, likely followed in some order by fellow righty Jack Flaherty and lefty Jordan Montgomery.

For Opening Day at least, that sets up nicely for the Jays to debut their new-look lefty-laden lineup, with Daulton Varsho, Brandon Belt and Kevin Kiermaier separating the many right-handed bats throughout manager John Schneider’s order.

The soon-to-be 35-year-old Belt could debut in the cleanup spot, and this year’s lineup is about as balanced as it gets. 

It’s also potent, with contract-year Chapman primed for a big season, but he’s starting way down in the seven-hole in a deep, deep group that stacks up with anyone in baseball.

It’s likely Varsho is eventually in the cleanup spot — or even the three-hole if the Jays decide to experiment with Bichette as the cleanup hitter again — once he heats up.

BENCH

Danny Jansen Toronto Blue Jays

1. C Danny Jansen (R)
2. INF Santiago Espinal (R)
3. 2B/OF Cavan Biggio (L)
4. TBD

OF Nathan Lukes (L)
INF/OF Otto Lopez (R)

The catching tandem is arguably the best in the game, and Jansen’s power makes him a nice option off the bench on nights he doesn’t start. 

On nights he does, one of Kirk or Belt will be the go-to pinch-hit option. 

Espinal should play second base against most lefties with his career .802 OPS against southpaws, while Biggio is expected to see a lot of time in right field when Kiermaier or Springer need a rest, in addition to time at second base. 

How Biggio hits will dictate his playing time this season, and there’s no question he needs to bounce back with Addison Barger’s emergence and the No. 6 prospect in the system is looming at Triple-A.

For now, the final roster spot is down to a left-handed hitting outfielder in Nathan Lukes, a 28-year-old who has yet to debut in the majors, and the versatile Otto Lopez, my No. 16 prospect in the system and a player who’s impressed this spring at both the World Baseball Classic for Canada and in Grapefruit League action.

The right-handed hitting Lopez has seen time at second base, shortstop, centre field and right field this spring, and definitely has the versatility edge on Lukes, but it’s also a fairly redundant profile with Espinal and Biggio around. 

Lopez might be nice to have around for certain base-running or defensive situations, but if he’s not going to play he’s probably best served getting at-bats in Triple-A to start the season and letting Lukes serve as the 26th man, an assignment that won’t come with much playing time unless there’s an injury. 

Or maybe the Jays look into a waiver claim depth addition when those start firing up next week as teams across baseball set their rosters.