As calendar flips to June, four reasons the Blue Jays have underperformed
Published
TORONTO — The first two months are in the books, the quarter pole has come and gone, and there’s no arguing the fact that the Toronto Blue Jays have underperformed.
There are many reasons John Schneider’s club is hovering around the .500 mark instead of hanging with the league’s top-tier heavyweights, none more obvious than the club’s ace regressing into one of the worst pitchers in baseball in front of our eyes.
It starts there, but that’s not where it ends.
On the heels of an 11-17 month of May, here’s a look at four reasons the Jays have not yet met expectations as the calendar flips to June.
1. Manoah’s regression
The No. 1 reason on this list has been apparent since Opening Day, and it’s a situation that has everyone involved looking for answers.
From pure stuff to mechanics to mindset, everything has gone wrong for Alek Manoah this season, and it’s been a stunning turn of events coming off an ace-like 2.24 ERA last year.
After another dud against the Milwaukee Brewers in his 12th start of the season this week, Manoah admitted he’s a bit lost and has been in his own head on the mound, oftentimes thinking, “Don’t throw a ball” as his command continues to elude him.
Analytically, it’s pretty easy to look at Manoah’s numbers and his minus-0.4 fWAR figure and say the Jays would be at least two wins better up to this point if the big right-hander was in his 2022 form.
Manoah has completed five-plus innings just five times in 12 tries this year and hasn’t really given his team a chance on most days.
The numbers, outlined here, are ugly and there aren’t many signs it’s about to get better anytime soon, either.
--
2. Varsho trade disappointing early on
Daulton Varsho was supposed to bring a lot of things, and the 26-year-old outfielder has definitely been a plus on defence and on the bases at times.
Unfortunately, the lefty’s bat hasn’t shown up yet, and it’s really been a drag on the entire offence.
After hitting 27 homers last year in Arizona and posting an above-average 106 wRC+, Varsho was supposed to be in line for a breakout campaign, surrounded by a whole lot of talent in a lineup that was supposed to score a boatload of runs.
Combine that with the move from the NL West’s bigger ballparks to some AL East bandboxes and it looked like an ideal match for both Varsho and the club.
That has not been the case, as he’s struggled to a .213/.276/.372 slash line that has him sitting with just a 79 wRC+ heading into June.
The most concerning part is a lack of pop, with Verso’s isolated power figure dropping to a career low .159 after cresting at career high .207 last year.
To make matters worse, the guys the Jays gave up to get Varsho are cooking with gas for the Diamondbacks.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., always known for his smoking hot heaters, has already been more productive this year than he was all of last year, hitting nine homers and posting a 142 wRC+ over the first two months.
Gabriel Moreno has also held his own behind the plate as a rookie, carrying a .291 batting average and some impressive defensive metrics into June.
We won’t be able to fully evaluate this trade for a couple of years, but it hasn’t started out like the Jays had hoped.
--
3. Vladdy’s May slump
In baseball, you only go as far as your star players will take you, so it’s not shocking to see the Jays’ team struggles coincide with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s rough month at the dish.
In April, Vladdy hit .309 with five bombs and a 13:14 strikeout-to-walk ratio, numbers that had him looking once again like one of the best hitters in baseball.
May was a different story, however, with knee and wrist ailments causing some issues with his swing mechanics.
That showed up in the numbers, as Guerrero struggled to a .716 OPS in the month of May.
Striking out 25 times and walking just five is very un-Vladdy-like and it resulted in a .296 on-base percentage for the month.
--
4. Depth guys haven’t contributed enough
The Jays’ offence sits 10th in baseball in runs per game at 4.7 per contest this year, so it’s not like this team can’t score.
That matches last year’s 4.7 per game but is well off the 2021 lineup that hummed along at 5.2 runs per clip.
This year, far too often it’s been Bo Bichette, Matt Chapman or another top-of-the-lineup star carrying the offence.
At times, they’ve sputtered when they need someone down in the order to pick up the slack and provide a key knock, and it’s been the difference between being a very good offence and an elite one.
There are many areas you can look to for improvement.
It starts behind the plate, where the catcher duo of the now-injured Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk has posted a combined 91 wRC+, a far cry from the 127 figure that made them the most productive pair in baseball last year.
Kevin Kiermaier and Whit Merrifield have done their part as role players and have been key contributors in a variety of ways, but Santiago Espinal, Cavan Biggio, Nathan Lukes, Jordan Luplow, and Ernie Clement have provided next to nothing from the bench.
It also doesn’t help that veterans George Springer and Brandon Belt have started slow, especially in the power department as both players are sporting sub-.400 slugging percentages two months into the season.