Observations at midway point of Jays' spring schedule

TORONTO — With 18 of 33 Grapefruit League games now in the books, the Toronto Blue Jays are officially past the midway point of a relatively quiet spring training.

They’re hoping to keep it quiet, too.

For a World Series contender with a roster chock full of veterans, March doesn’t matter much and staying healthy is the absolute key.

Even at the best of times, trying to derive too much from spring narratives or Grapefruit League stats is a poor way to attempt to get a handle on things as March 30 opening day in St. Louis approaches.

Remember Gabe Gross? His eight bombs back in the spring of 2005 had everyone giddy. It did not carry over.

Russ Adams, Tomo Ohka, David Purcey, Eric Thames … the list goes on and on.

With an eye towards reigning in the hot takes but also realizing spring is a time for optimism and what-could-be, here are 11 observations at the from the first half of spring training in Dunedin.
 

Vladdy Jr.’s knee obviously something to monitor

There wasn’t much internal concern when he was originally pulled from a March 3 game after running the bases and coming up lame at second base, and the relatively benign diagnosis of right knee inflammation backed that up.

There was, however, enough caution needing to be exercised that Guerrero Jr. and the Jays decided the World Baseball Classic risk wasn’t worth it.

Ten days later, Guerrero Jr. is running the bases and is expected to be back in the Jays lineup at some point this week, assuming no setbacks.

While it’s a minor issue as of today, it’s obviously never good when a 23-year-old is dealing with any potentially nagging knee ailments in March.

It’s also notable that Guerrero missed time in Double-A back in 2018 with a strained patellar tendon in his left knee.
 

Jays being cautious with Tiedemann

The second piece of ominous injury news this spring came down Monday when manager John Schneider revealed to reporters that prized prospect Ricky Tiedemann has been shut down for a couple days with a sore left shoulder.

The 20-year-old lefty is already scheduled to throw a bullpen session on Wednesday, providing hope that the issue is relatively minor and not something that’s going to interrupt what’s looking like a meteoric rise to the majors after being drafted in 2021.

Shoulder injuries are scary as heck for a young pitcher, though, and the Jays will use extreme caution here, as well.

Expecting Tiedemann to contribute before the second half of the season wouldn’t be smart, and even that may be expecting too much given his lack of experience.
 

Kiermaier, Springer look healthy, spry

On the good news side, outfielders Kevin Kiermaier (left hip surgery) and George Springer (right elbow surgery) look not only healthy but in midseason form, too.

Springer, whose power was clearly affected by playing with one arm for much of last season, leads the club with three home runs this spring, while Kiermaier picked up two more hits Monday and is now batting a solid .526 with 12 hits through his first nine games.

So far, so good for the Jays’ reworked outfield mix.
 

Infielders running wild

The Jays under Schneider are expected to be aggressive on the basepaths this season, and it’s been the infield group leading the charge in that regard this spring.

Santiago Espinal leads the club with three stolen bases in three attempts, while Whit Merrifield (five attempts) and Bo Bichette (four attempts) have been running the most.

The issue is Merrifield has been caught three times and Bichette has been nabbed twice. Overall, the Jays have been caught stealing 10 times as a team, going just 14-for-24 thus far.
 

Gausman getting results with new delivery

After having to rework his toe-tap delivery this spring when MLB announced it was beginning a crackdown on balks, Kevin Gausman seemingly hasn’t been affected much when it comes to results.

It’s early, but through his first two starts spanning 5.1 frames Gausman has allowed just three hits, striking out five and walking one.

Normally, you wouldn’t even pay much attention to what the 32-year-old righty is doing in March, but a major change heading into the second year of his five-year, $110-million deal is unsettling for all involved.

Gausman and Alek Manoah staying healthy and continuing to get above-average results is one of the obvious keys to this season.
 

No. 5 starter isn’t up for debate

With so few job battles on this roster, we needed things to talk about back in February.

Who’s the fifth starter?

It’s Yusei Kikuchi, of course, and his results this spring have only further solidified that.

Even though the first year of his three-year, $36-million deal was ugly with a 5.19 ERA and a demotion to the bullpen, the Jays are nowhere near pulling the plug on this experiment for a number of reasons.

The first is the simple fact that just about every team in baseball has No. 5 starter questions, and the Jays are no different.

If Kikuchi isn’t the answer, they’ll likely address it at the trade deadline. They’re going to need pitching reinforcements no matter what.

The second is everyone has seen the glimpses of dominance, and the stuff plays against big-league hitters … when Kikuchi can consistently find the zone.

The third is it’s simply too early. It’s very similar to the Tanner Roark situation a few years ago when he was terrible in his first year with the Jays but was still handed a rotation spot the next spring. The difference was his leash was a lot shorter and he didn’t hold that spot for long. It’s the same for Kikuchi. He was always going to be in the rotation this year and likely will be until at least the summer months, but the leash is without a doubt tighter in Year 2 for the enigmatic lefty.

It’s also noteworthy that the Jays front-loaded the Kikuchi contract, leaving just $20 million owing, split evenly over this season and next.

Kikuchi, who has reworked the shape on a couple of his pitches since last year, has not allowed a run across his first four starts, striking out 13 in 9.2 innings.

He has, however, still walked six.
 

Berrios leads slim WBC contingent

With Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk bowing out late, the Jays sent just two big-league regulars to the World Baseball Classic in Puerto Rican starter Jose Berrios and Dominican reliever Yimi Garcia.

Lesser-known Jays prospects Otto Lopez (Canada), Damiano Palmegiani (Canada), Dasan Brown (Canada), OF Jaden Rudd (Britain), Luis Quinones (Puerto Rico), Spencer Horwitz (Israel) and Jiorgeny Casimiri (Netherlands) are also dotting WBC rosters.

Under a microscope already this year, Berrios’ debut did not go well, as the veteran right-hander was torched for five earned runs in his country’s loss to Venezuela on Sunday.

It’s still March so taking that performance with a grain of salt like the rest of them is probably the way to go, but for an expensive pitcher looking for a bounceback season it’s still easy to cringe and wonder what’s ahead.
Berrios just looks awfully hittable these days.
 

Kirk finally gets into game action

With his start to spring delayed by the birth of his baby, Kirk made his Grapefruit League debut Monday and quickly showed he did not forget how to hit while he was away from the club.

Normally, a player missing multiple weeks would be cause for concern, but Kirk’s ability to pick up a bat and walk into a box and hit is something special. He’ll be more than ready to go when the lights start shining bright on opening day.

The real focus for Kirk is just getting up to speed with the new arms on the pitching staff like Chris Bassitt and Erik Swanson.
 

Orelvis doing his spring thing (again)

Once again, Orelvis Martinez is impressing in camp alongside the big boys, the exact same thing he’s done three years running now.

Coming off an age-20 Double-A season that was disappointing for some because of a high strikeout rate, Martinez has consistently shown an ability to dial in for at-bats against big league arms every March.

One scout has seen potential plus defence at the hot corner, too, which would be a pleasant development with Matt Chapman’s ongoing march towards free agency next winter.

A lot of things can happen between now and opening day 2024, but Martinez and Addison Barger have a huge opportunity in front of them to stake claim to the title of third baseman of the future this year.
 

Prospects making an impression

Speaking of prospects, Martinez isn’t the only one making an impression this spring.

The aforementioned Barger has thrust himself into the bench spot mix with some eye-catching moments, essentially doing what’s been expected of Cavan Biggio over the last couple of years, which is hitting for power from the left side, showing some speed on the bases, and playing multiple positions capably on defence.

If the Jays are simply carrying their best players, Barger is one of their best bench options as of today.

With that said, some time in Triple-A in order to give Biggio another chance wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.

Lopez, with seven hits in 15 at-bats as the No. 16 prospect on my yearly Jays top 50 list, and Britton, with a pair of bombs as my No. 31 prospect, have also stood out.
 

Pearson likely destined for Triple-A

Nate Pearson got back on track Monday, throwing 10-of-14 pitches for strikes in a clean inning against the Boston Red Sox.

After allowing runs in two of his first three appearances this spring, the spotless frame was needed, as Pearson’s goals this spring are to remain healthy and regain confidence against major-league hitters.

A strong Dominican Winter League stint helped Pearson start to find his footing after a lost 2022 season, but now he needs to dial things back in and show his triple-digit fastball is more than just a radar gun novelty.

There was some thought Pearson would be able to stake claim to a multi-inning role out of the Jays bullpen at some point this season, but the more you watch him, the more he looks like a reliever of the one inning variety.

This much seems certain: Without a rash of injuries, Pearson and his two remaining options are likely ticketed for Triple-A Buffalo to start the season. There’s no reason he can’t work his way into a vital ‘pen role this year, but it’s going to take some time — and some command — for that to happen.