Bichette, Guerrero join Jays’ offensive surge

The Toronto Blue Jays are 14-6 in their past 20 games and playing much better baseball than they did in the first couple of months of the season. They are currently 40-34 in third place in the AL East, just three games behind the New York Yankees.  

Last week, I wrote about how the Jays have been much better offensively in their turnaround and that the depth players were leading the charge: Alejandro Kirk, Ernie Clement and Addison Barger in particular. Since then, stars Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have joined the surge. They have seven extra-base hits, scored six runs and driven in 11 between them.

The lack of offence over the first two months of the season made me believe the Jays had a very narrow path to make the playoffs. They weren’t scoring much, which meant that they had to score enough with the right timing to win on each given day. Now that the offence is rolling, they can win more types of games. They have an ability to outslug another team if that is what it takes. This has broadened my optimism on their playoff chances.

My experience is that even the biggest stars battle demons that make them question their ability. Bichette and Guerrero have both had ups and downs in their careers, which has challenged their confidence. But when they have come out of their occasional funks, they have been able to sustain success and carry the Jays. It looks and feels like they are on the verge of doing just that.

Starting pitching problems

Bowden Francis Toronto Blue Jays

Now that the offence is starting to truly roll, it is time to be concerned about the pitching.  

The Blue Jays are 10-7 in June, which is remarkable considering they have a 4.98 ERA (27th). That is only better than the Rockies, Athletics and Twins. Seven of the 10 wins this month have been credited to the bullpen, which highlights the deeper concern: starting pitching.

The Jays’ starters are 19-23 this season with a 4.72 ERA (26th). The relievers are a combined 21-11 with a 3.60 ERA (11th). This is not winning formula for continued success. The starting pitching is underperforming pretty significantly and needs to get better. Kevin Gausman (5-6, 4.60 ERA) and Bowden Francis (2-8, 6.05 ERA) have been exceedingly poor. Plus, Max Scherzer’s injury and stay on the injured list has created a vacuum in the fifth spot in the rotation. Eric Lauer has recently shown signs of effectiveness, but something needs to be done.

Gausman is better than this. He and pitching coach Pete Walker need to get him back on track. I believe it is possible because some of the underlying numbers indicate he has had bad luck and his overall performance is better than his stats indicate.

Francis needs to be sent to the minor leagues and rebuilt. The Jays can’t keep running him out to the mound. As the saying goes, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Something needs to change.

He needs to make adjustments. His walk rate has gone up significantly and his home run rate has gone up exponentially. Francis needs to throw more strikes and work ahead in the count. When he is behind in the count, opponents are hitting .342. When he works ahead, they are hitting .191. Therein lies the solution. Last season, he had a 67 per cent strike rate, while this year it is 62 per cent. He must work ahead in the count because he doesn’t have overpowering stuff that leads to swings and misses.

Scherzer had a successful rehab start on Tuesday. He went 4.1 innings and struck out eight batters. His fastball averaged 92.5 mph and the ball came out of his hand free and easy. The next threshold is to see how his arm and sore thumb recover from the start. If he feels good over the next few days he could rejoin the Jays rotation in Cleveland next week.

I’m tempering my expectations as Scherzer has had a difficult time staying healthy over the past couple of seasons. I have said all along that anything the Jays get from him needs to be icing on the cake because he has been so unreliable due to his health. Hopefully the icing is thick and flavourful. The Jays need him.

As a team, Toronto needs better pitching if they’re going to win 90 games. They have to win all types of games to get to that 90-win plateau. They can’t just rely upon the offence to overpower the opposition. They need to outpitch them on occasion.

Red Sox deal Devers

Rafael Devers San Francisco Giants

The AL East got a bit less competitive last week as the Boston Red Sox traded disgruntled slugger Rafael Devers to the San Francisco Giants.

The Red Sox had seen and heard enough from Devers, who refused to play first base or third base after he had been rather unceremoniously moved to the designated hitter role with the signing of free-agent infielder Alex Bregman.

Divorces can be ugly, and this one certainly was. Like most relationships, poor communication was at the heart of it all. Craig Breslow, Boston’s chief baseball officer, did not communicate appropriately with his star player in the off-season when he had a vision of signing another third baseman. He only spoke with Devers when he reported to spring training, and by then all of the speculation had spiraled about a position change for the slugger.

Devers was understandably offended that he wasn’t afforded a conversation. But from that point forward, Devers became a bad teammate. He was selfish and unwilling to do what was best for the team. I understand his frustrations, but in the end, he owed it to his teammates to play where he was asked to play. He is getting paid $31.5 million per season. Play where you are told to play.

But one team’s problem is another team’s solution. The San Francisco Giants have a very good pitching staff, but they needed to upgrade their offence to keep pace with the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres. Devers immediately becomes their best hitter.

The Red Sox got out from under the approximately $260 million remaining on Devers’ contract. In addition to the financial flexibility, they got four players in return: pitcher Jordan Hicks, top-flight pitching prospect Kyle Harrison, 2024 first-round draft pick James Tibbs III, and a rookie-league pitcher Jose Bello.

It was not the most substantial return in a trade, but the Sox also got addition by subtraction. They made a statement to their young major leaguers and the entire minor-league system that there are expectations for behaviour as a teammate. The Sox are a lesser team on paper but I think they will be better in the long run.

Devers has said he will play anywhere the Giants want him to play. His selfishness only applied to the Red Sox. He has already started taking grounders at first base.

The Giants have had a hard time getting good hitters to go there as free agents. Oracle Park is a pitchers’ ballpark. The Giants haven’t had a 30-homer hitter since Barry Bonds retired. Some part of that is because of the stadium and some part the quality of the hitters on the roster. Devers should have no problem hitting 30 or more there.

The Giants are definitely better with Devers in their lineup. It will be interesting to see if their team chemistry remains positive. My guess is that he will be on his best behaviour since a trade like this can often be a wake-up call to a player. I don’t believe his acquisition will be enough for the Giants to win out over the Dodgers or Padres, but it might help them sneak in as a second or third wild-card team in the National League.