Morning Coffee: A same-game parlay to consider for Game 3 of the NBA Finals
Nikola Jokic is +850 to score 40+ points in Game 3 of the NBA Finals at FanDuel.
Based on what we have seen so far this postseason, I’m guessing that the majority of Denver Nuggets fans are staying away from that prop altogether.
Jokic scored a game-high 41 points in a Game 2 loss to the Miami Heat on Sunday.
In fact, the Nuggets are now 0-3 straight up in these playoffs when Jokic scores 40+ points and 0-4 SU all-time when he hits that mark.
Jokic is averaging 41.8 points per game in Denver’s playoffs losses.
The only player in NBA history with a higher scoring average in losses in a single postseason? Michael Jordan in 1986.
How will the Nuggets adjust and respond as the NBA Finals shift to South Beach for Game 3?
According to FanDuel, we should expect another close game tonight.
This is the Morning Coffee for Wednesday, June 7, 2023.
Will Nuggets respond in Game 3 of the NBA Finals?
Denver head coach Michael Malone absolutely ripped his team for their lack of effort and focus in Game 2.
The Nuggets nearly tripled their total fouls in Game 2 compared to Game 1. They also gave up more than double the number of points off turnovers.
Still, they had a chance to tie the game in the final seconds of regulation in a 111-108 loss.
How will Denver respond in Game 3 in Miami?
The Nuggets have been a more efficient team at home versus on the road so far this postseason.
However, Denver has won a franchise-record three straight road playoff games.
The Nuggets opened as a 1.5-point favourite for Game 3 at FanDuel, but quickly moved to the current number as a 2.5-point favourite.
In Monday morning’s column, I wrote about playing Denver -1.5 as a FanDuel Best Bet with the expectation that the Nuggets would bounce back in Game 3.
I still think they are the better team overall, and despite everything that went wrong for them, they still rallied to give the Heat a scare at the end of Game 2.
The Nuggets can still be found at -138 on the money line at FanDuel this morning.
That’s a pretty good number for anyone who thinks that Denver will bounce back tonight.
A same-game parlay to consider for Game 3
Now that we’ve set the stage for a pivotal Game 3 in Miami, let’s look at a long shot same-game parlay to consider for Game 3.
Michael Porter Jr. had his worst game of the playoffs in Game 2 on Sunday.
He still managed to record six rebounds in the loss. He’s recorded 6+ rebounds in six straight games and nine of his past 10 games overall.
Porter Jr. had also hit 2+ three-point shots in every game this postseason before going 1-of-6 from beyond the arc in Game 2.
I’ll start this SGP with Porter Jr. 6+ rebounds and 2+ made threes.
Meanwhile, Jamal Murray has recorded exactly 10 assists in back-to-back games to open the NBA Finals.
Ball movement will be critical for Denver again tonight. I’ll add Murray 6+ assists to this Same Game Parlay.
Next up, I’ll look at Miami’s reliance on the three-point shot in order to keep up with the Nuggets at home.
Gabe Vincent and Max Strus went a combined 8-of-16 from beyond the arc in Game 2. I’m banking on both of those players to hit 2+ made threes in tonight’s game.
Here is the long shot same-game parlay for tonight: Nuggets ML, Porter Jr. 6+ rebounds, Porter Jr. 2+ made threes, Murray 6+ assists, Vincent 2+ made threes and Strus 2+ made threes.
You can find that NBA Same Game Parlay at +639 on the FanDuel app this morning.
A FanDuel Best Bet to consider for Wednesday’s MLB slate
The most difficult aspect of committing to a daily FanDuel Best Bet in this column is deciding which bet deserves to be classified as the “FanDuel Best Bet.”
On Monday, I hit seven of my eight MLB plays, including the Houston Astros to beat the Toronto Blue Jays at plus-money.
Unfortunately, the pick that I made my FanDuel Best Bet in Morning Coffee didn’t hit, which made the entire night bittersweet.
I ran it back with the No Run First Inning between the Kansas City Royals and Miami Marlins in Tuesday’s column and they delivered the six outs we needed to cash.
Tonight, I have my eye on that series again, but this time I like Miami on the money line.
The Marlins have outscored the Royals a combined 15-7 while winning each of the first two games of the series.
Miami has quietly put together a five-game win streak, and I believe they will extend that run tonight in the series finale versus Kansas City before heading out on a nine-game road trip.
The Royals have lost all 12 of their games when Jordan Lyles has started this season.
On the flip side, Miami is a perfect 4-0 at home when Edward Cabrera starts, and he hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of those contests.
Give me the Marlins ML at -158 as my FanDuel Best Bet for Wednesday’s MLB slate.