Morning Coffee: A winner, two bad beats and a FanDuel Best Bet for Thursday Night Football

Buckle up.

If the first two nights of NHL hockey on North American soil are any indication, this season is going to be an absolutely wild one.

First up, we cashed our FanDuel Best Bet for the second night in a row when William Nylander went over 2.5 shots on goal in last night’s loss to the Habs.

Not only that, but we climbed the ladder with Nylander’s shots on goal props, cashing over 2.5 shots on goal at -134, 4+ shots on goal at +190, and 5+ shots on goal at +420.

It’s a good thing that we hit on all of those, because it made the bad beats that happened next a lot easier to accept.

Here’s the Morning Coffee for Thursday Oct. 13th, 2022.

A Night To Remember For The Wrong Reasons

Wednesday started off as a night to remember with the Nylander shots on goal ladder.

I jumped on a handful of other shots on goal, anytime goal scorer and point total props at FanDuel, and I was seeing a lot of green throughout the first couple of hours of game action.

It was a good vibe.

Then came the bad beats.

First, my decision to swap out Teuvo Teravainen over 2.5 shots on goal for Andrei Svechnikov over 2.5 shots on goal on a five-leg, player prop that paid over $10K missed when Svechnikov missed the net with a shot attempt late in the third period.

After that, Evander Kane decided to pass on cashing an anytime goal scorer prop that I needed as the final leg of a parlay that would have paid $5K.

To be completely honest, I went to bed after the second period of the Oilers’ game, so I didn’t see what happened with Kane live.

It’s a good thing that I didn’t, because I don’t think I would have slept last night if I did.

For as bad as those two beats are, the TSN EDGE team is feeling pretty good about the last two nights.

Now we get a full slate of NHL games tonight, plus one of the most highly anticipated prime time showdowns of the NFL season so far for Thursday Night Football.

Let’s get back to work and get back in the green again.

A FanDuel Best Bet For Thursday Night Football

In case you haven’t been paying close enough attention, underdogs and unders have been hitting at a very high rate early on this NFL season.

Per ESPN Stats & Info, underdogs are 45-30-3 against the spread – a 60 per cent cover rate.

It’s the best cover percentage for either underdogs or favourites through five weeks since 2010.

Meanwhile, the under has gone 45-30-3 against the spread – a 58 per cent cover rate.

That’s the highest under percentage through Week 5 since 2004.

This is important information for anybody betting on the NFL this week to know.

Unfortunately for anybody looking to bet on Thursday Night Football, the markets at FanDuel have already moved.

The Washington Commanders were a 1.5-point favourite for tonight’s game at FanDuel on the look-ahead line.

While the line moved all the way to Chicago Bears -1 earlier in the week, it has since flipped back to Washington -1.

Meanwhile, the total has come crashing down from 40 to 37.5, which is easily the lowest total on the board for Week 5.

Thursday Night Football games with totals in the 30’s have gone a combined 18-7-2 to the under since 2000.

Prime-time unders have gone a combined 11-5 so far this season.

While I didn’t think I would write these words on paper much if at all this season, I’ll fully admit that I lean Commanders in this spot.

For as bad as things have looked at times for Washington during a four-game losing streak, they’ve lost to some decent opponents in the Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys and Tennessee Titans.

Anybody who reads this column or follows me on Twitter knows what I think about the Chicago Bears, which deserve full marks for a win over the Houston Texans and a win over the San Francisco 49ers in awful conditions, but might still be a tad overrated in market based on that win over Trey Lance and the 49ers.

Young quarterbacks and first-year coaches have struggled historically on short weeks.

The Bears have both of those things with a young QB in Justin Fields and a first-time head coach in Matt Eberflus.

I’ll never feel good about betting on Carson Wentz, but in this spot, I’ll take the better and more experienced team to find a way to get a win.  

I’ll make Washington -1 my FanDuel Best Bet for Thursday Night Football.