Morning Coffee: Bills right back in the thick of surprising AFC playoff race

The Buffalo Bills desperately needed a win over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 14 to keep their playoff hopes alive.

At the end of another emotional roller-coaster, they got exactly the result they needed in order to remain in the thick of the AFC postseason hunt.

Josh Allen threw for 233 yards and a touchdown, ran for another score, and the Bills never trailed in a 20-17 win in Kansas City as a +104 money line underdog at FanDuel.

With two Week 14 games left to play tonight, there isn’t a single NFL team that has clinched a playoff spot yet.

Only two teams – the New England Patriots and Arizona Cardinals – have officially been eliminated from playoff contention.

11 of the 16 AFC teams have a winning record.

Nine of those 11 teams are either 8-5 or 7-6.

Those 11 teams are tied for the second-most from a single conference with a winning record through Week 14 since the AFL/NFL merger back in 1970.

Buffalo is one of six AFC teams that are 7-6 with four games remaining on their regular season schedule.

What are the odds that the Bills make the playoffs?

According to FanDuel, Buffalo has a 45.9 per cent chance to make the dance in the suddenly wide-open AFC race.

The Bills are still considered slightly more likely to miss than make the playoffs at FanDuel.

However, that’s a much better price than their odds to get into the postseason just a couple of weeks ago.

All of a sudden, there’s once again hope for Bills Mafia.

This is the Morning Coffee for Monday December 11th, 2023.

Bills Right Back In The Thick Of Surprising AFC Playoff Race

If there was such a thing as a lock in the NFL, it would be that nobody could have predicted that the AFC standings would look the way that they do this morning.

The Joe Flacco-led Cleveland Browns are currently the fifth seed in the AFC at 8-5.

Flacco, who wasn’t on an NFL roster at the start of the season, just threw for 311 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-27 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.

After the Browns, there are six teams tied for the final two AFC Wild Card spots at 7-6, including the Pittsburgh Steelers, Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, Denver Broncos, Cincinnati Bengals and the Bills.

The Steelers looked like they were on a path to a playoff spot following a 7-4 start that included wins over the Browns, Bengals and Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North.

However, Pittsburgh lost their starting quarterback Kenny Pickett to an injury in a Week 13 loss to the Arizona Cardinals, then lost to the New England Patriots with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback in Week 14 to fall to 7-6.

Despite losing their starting quarterback Anthony Richardson to a season-ending injury in Week 4, the Gardner Minshew-led Colts are 7-6.

The Texans are also 7-6 after a loss to the New York Jets on Sunday.

One week after they lost standout rookie wide receiver Tank Dell to a season-ending injury, Rookie of the Year favourite C.J. Stroud and wide receiver Nico Collins were both injured in Sunday’s loss to the Jets.

There is a lot of important injury news around the NFL this morning.

Meanwhile, the Bengals were considered an afterthought in the AFC after losing Joe Burrow to a season-ending injury.

However, Jake Browning has led Cincinnati to back-to-back wins over a pair of playoff contenders in the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis.

Suddenly, the Bengals are right back in it once again.

Then there’s the Broncos, which were completely dismissed following a 1-5 start to the season.

Since then, Denver has gone 6-1 to climb right back into the AFC playoff race.

In fact, Sunday’s win over the Los Angeles Chargers combined with Kansas City’s loss to Buffalo has left the Broncos just one game out of first place in the AFC West.

Denver is currently +900 to win the AFC West at FanDuel.

The Chiefs are still -1500 to win their division.

Then there is the Bills, which are right back in the mix following a crucial win in Kansas City on Sunday.

The bad news for Buffalo at this point is the fact that all five teams they are tied with in the AFC at 7-6 each currently own the head-to-head tiebreaker against them.

The good news is that they just beat the pre-season Super Bowl favourite in their own stadium to give themselves a chance in the suddenly wide-open AFC.

The Bills are currently +118 to make the playoffs at FanDuel.

That number represents a 45.9 per cent implied probability.

Buffalo’s season has been a roller-coaster ride to date.

Bills Mafia has to be thankful this morning that the ride isn’t over just yet.

A FanDuel Best Bet For Monday Night Football

Tyreek Hill leads the NFL with 1,481 receiving yards and 12 touchdown receptions this season.

The 1,481 receiving yards is the most through 12 games in the Super Bowl era.

Hill has averaged 123.4 receiving yards per game.

His receiving yards prop for tonight’s game is set at 108.5.

No other wide receiver set to suit up tonight has a higher over/under than 70.5 yards, which is the number for Hill’s teammate Jaylen Waddle.

That’s a 38-yard disparity between the top two receivers.

However, Hill is only a -130 favourite to be the leading wide receiver in tonight’s game between the Dolphins and Titans.

Considering Hill leads the entire league in receiving yards, I believe there is value taking Hill to be the receiving yards leader in tonight’s game at such a small price.

I’ll take Hill to be the receiving yards leader in tonight’s game between the Dolphins and Titans at -130 as my FanDuel Best Bet for Monday Night Football.