Morning Coffee: Can Rantanen swing Western Conference Final rematch?

The Florida Panthers are the class of the NHL.

Immediately after the Cats clinched the Stanley Cup last summer, they opened as the betting favourite to repeat as champions this summer at FanDuel.

Fast-forward nearly one full year later, the Panthers are seven wins away from successfully defending their crown.

While it’s been an unprecedented season in terms of the sheer number of teams that have had a turn as the top choice in FanDuel’s Stanley Cup winner market, Florida is once again the favourite to win it all this morning.

Here’s a scary thought to consider.

Are the Panthers getting stronger as the Stanley Cup Playoffs progress?

Believe it or not, Florida was considered an underdog to win Game 1 in Carolina at FanDuel.

After a dominant 5-2 victory on the road, the Panthers odds to win the Eastern Conference Final shifted all the way from -130 to -245 at FanDuel.

The current number represents a 71 per cent implied series win probability.

Can the Carolina Hurricanes find a way to bounce back and salvage a split on home ice to start the series?

Even with their backs already against the wall, I’m not convinced that Carolina deserves to be a -130 favourite for Game 2 on Thursday night.

Anybody who tailed my Morning Coffee best bets cashed Sergei Bobrovsky over 25.5 saves on Tuesday night and is in pretty good shape with plays on Florida to advance and Panthers -1.5 in the series.

Hopefully, we can build on the strong start and produce some similar results in the Western Conference Finals with Game 1 on deck tonight.

This is the Morning Coffee for Wednesday May 21st, 2025.

Can Rantanen swing Western Conference Final rematch?

Oilers Nation learned first-hand how dominant the Cats can be in last year’s Stanley Cup Final.

One year later, the Oilers and Panthers are on a collision course once again as the betting favourites to reach the Stanley Cup Final at FanDuel.

First, Edmonton will need to repeat as the NHL’s Western Conference champions in a rematch with the Dallas Stars.

It’s just the seventh rematch in the history of the NHL’s Conference Final round.

The Oilers won last year’s series in six games and remain a slight favourite to repeat at -118 at FanDuel.

However, as was the case with the Cats in Carolina, Edmonton will open its series as the underdog to win Game 1 at +106 at FanDuel.

How important is a Game 1 win?

Teams that win Game 1 are 5-2 this postseason and have advanced 68 per cent of the time overall.

However, it’s worth noting that the Oilers were the exception to the rule in the first round, when they dropped the first two games of their series on the road and then rallied to beat the Los Angeles Kings in six.

Still, Edmonton will want a better start versus Dallas.

The Oilers are 24-3 all-time when they win Game 1.

That 89 per cent win rate is the second-best in NHL history behind only the Panthers at 90 per cent.

Since 2020, Edmonton is 3-10 in Game 1 of a series in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, 14-23 in Games 1 through 3, and 24-9 in Games 4 through 7.

That’s a .359 winning percentage in Games 1 through 3 of a series compared to a .727 winning percentage in Games 4 through 7.

A year ago, the Oilers beat the Stars in double-overtime in Game 1, lost the next two games, then won three in a row to advance to the Stanley Cup Finals.

Would I be surprised if Edmonton won in six again? No.

Would I be surprised if Dallas won in seven games? No.

Last year, at the start of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, I predicted the Panthers would beat the Stars in the Stanley Cup Final.

I went 14-of-15 with my series predictions.

The lone loss was picking Dallas over Edmonton.

At the start of this year’s postseason, I predicted Florida would beat the winner of the first round series between the Stars and the Colorado Avalanche.

Fool me once, shame on you.

Fool me twice…

The Oilers seem to have flipped a switch since Game 3 against the Kings, outscoring their opponents a combined 36-22 while going 8-1.

Their ability to score at 5-on-5 is unrivalled, and it isn’t just Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl producing for them up front.

Factor in the re-emergence of Stuart Skinner, who is coming off back-to-back shutout wins and was excellent against the Stars in last year’s Western Conference Final, and I lean Edmonton to repeat in a best-of-seven.

Mikko Rantanen has been outstanding for Dallas, but the biggest question mark for me is whether they can find the depth scoring they need to keep up with the Oilers.

The Rantanen line has led the way with 18 goals.

The rest of the Stars forwards have combined for 11.

Jake Oettinger has been outstanding for Dallas this postseason, but he’ll be tested by Edmonton’s offence, and we could see a scenario where the Stars need their second and third forward lines to step up to have a shot.

As for a FanDuel Best Bet for Game 1, I’ll go with a builder Same Game Parlay that features the game’s three biggest superstars to each record two or more shots on goal at -115 odds.

McDavid ranks third in the NHL in shots on goal per game this postseason with 43, averaging 3.9 per game while 2+ shots on goal has hit in 11-of-11 games this postseason.

Rantanen isn’t far behind him in seventh place in the NHL with 39 shots on goal – an average of three per game.

Rantanen 2+ shots on goal has hit in both series openers and 10 of 13 games this postseason.

All eyes will be on the Stars top line tonight and Rantanen certainly understands his role as the driver of the offence.

Finally, Draisaitl has averaged exactly three shots on goal per game while cashing 2+ shots on goal in all 11 games.

With every game so important at this time of the year, I expect all three superstars to step up in Game 1 tonight.

For what it’s worth, McDavid, Draisaitl, and Rantanen to each record 3+ shots on goal is +347 at FanDuel.

As always, I’ll post my full NHL card to X.

Make sure you give me a follow @Domenic_Padula.

Have a great day, everyone!