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Morning Coffee: Can Steelers surprise with Rodgers at quarterback?
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Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has never finished a regular season with a losing record.
Tell me why I would bet against that streak in 2025.
Mason Rudolph, Devlin Hodges, Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, Russell Wilson, Justin Fields.
That’s the list of quarterbacks that have started at least six games for Pittsburgh since Ben Roethlisberger retired at the end of the 2021 NFL season.
With that group of QBs, the Steelers have produced the following win/loss records over the last three seasons: 9-8, 10-7, and 10-7.
Pittsburgh reached double-digit wins and qualified for the playoffs in two of those three seasons.
Now the Steelers have turned to Aaron Rodgers with the hope that the 41-year-old could provide a spark and lead them back to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2010.
Rodgers might not be a Pro Bowl quarterback. He’s still better than any of the previous six QBs that have started games for Pittsburgh since 2022.
The fact that the Steelers were a playoff team in 2023 and in 2024 with a combination of Pickett, Rudolph, Trubisky, Wilson and Fields at quarterback has convinced me the black and yellow can make it back with Rodgers.
Forget last year’s disappointment.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are not the New York Jets.
On Sunday, Rodgers will return to East Rutherford, New Jersey with his new team to face his former team when the black and yellow visit the Jets in Week 1.
Fields will also start against his former team after he was named the new QB1 for New York.
The Jets have been the worst ATS team in the NFL in the month of September dating back to 2018, yet they’re getting less than a field goal at home versus Pittsburgh.
While this appears to be a lopsided match-up on paper, it’s also Week 1 and the lines you see at FanDuel are the sharpest you will see all season.
Rodgers has waited a long time for the opportunity to lead a legitimate Super Bowl contender to a memorable victory in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Tomlin has the complete scouting report on his former starting QB Fields and is ready to unleash T.J. Watt and a stacked defence after him this Sunday.
With Rodgers focused on redemption versus the Jets, I’ll bite and bet the Steelers to win and cover as a 2.5-point favourite on the road.
I’ll also lock in another player prop as a FanDuel Best Bet for this Wednesday September 3rd, 2025, edition of the Morning Coffee.
Will Steelers Surprise With Rodgers at Quarterback?
“A lot of times down years for me are career years for most quarterbacks.”
I don’t care what you think about Rodgers, that’s epic. It’s also true. While the Jets were a bust in 2024, Rodgers ranked among the top 10 quarterbacks in the NFL in both passing yards (3,897) and touchdown passes (28).
Despite that optimism, the Steelers are still +140 to make the playoffs at FanDuel – slightly shorter odds than the Jacksonville Jaguars at +150 and the New England Patriots at +164.
I understand the excitement surrounding Liam Coen’s arrival in Jacksonville and Mike Vrabel’s return to New England, but the disrespect is remarkable.
Pittsburgh has been a perennial playoff contender since Tomlin took over and they’ve gone all-in to win now with the additions of Rodgers, D.K. Metcalf, and Jalen Ramsey.
All signs point towards Rodgers leaning heavily on Metcalf as his No. 1 wide receiver this season.
With Calvin Austin, Robert Woods, and rookie third round pick Roman Wilson rounding out the Steelers’ depth chart at the position, Metcalf should shoulder a heavy target share in his first year with the franchise.
However, Pittsburgh added another pass-catching threat this offseason that I believe has flown under the radar in veteran tight end Jonnu Smith.
The Steelers acquired Smith from the Miami Dolphins following a career year in which he finished with 88 receptions for 884 yards and eight touchdowns.
Nobody was surprised when Pittsburgh made that deal. After all, this is a veteran tight end that played a key role on offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s teams in previous stops with both the Tennessee Titans and Atlanta Falcons.
The Steelers desperately needed another pass-catching option to compliment Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington at the position, and Smith could be the perfect fit in an offence he is very familiar playing in.
He should be the perfect fit both in terms of the position and personnel.
When Jonnu Smith played for Arthur Smith in Atlanta, the Falcons led the entire NFL in 12-personnel snaps.
12-personnel means two tight ends and one running back. Last season, the Steelers ran 12 or 13-personnel at one of the highest rates in the league under Smith.
The problem is that they lacked a top pass-catching option at the position.
The addition at tight end gives Pittsburgh the option of running 12 with Smith and Freiermuth on the field at the same time or 13 with Smith, Freiermuth and Washington. The lack of depth at receiver would be a bigger concern if the Steelers planned to play more 11-personnel.
This offence is specifically designed around two and three tight end sets.
As for the expectations for Pittsburgh’s new tight end, they appear to be tempered for Week 1.
FanDuel has Smith’s receiving yards prop at over/under 27.5 for this week’s game against the Jets.
While we know the Steelers want to run the football and play tough defence, we also know that Sauce Gardner will line up opposite Metcalf, the depth at receiver is thin, and they brought in Smith to be their No. 2 option in the passing game.
I’ll lock in Jonnu Smith over 27.5 receiving yards as a FanDuel Best Bet for Week 1 of the NFL season. I’ll also lock in Steelers -2.5 as a FanDuel Best Bet.
Hopefully, Rodgers and Smith shine in their debuts and lead the Steelers to a win over the Jets on Sunday.