Morning Coffee: Can the Blue Jays beat the odds to win the AL East?

Hold on to your buns, folks.

Two titans are set to return to the table.

A red, white, and chew tradition unlike any other will resume later this morning with a pair of American icons set to steal the spotlight once again.

And a very special Happy Fourth of July to our friends south of the border.

Joey Chestnut is a 17-time Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest champion and the heavy favourite to add to his trophy case at noon eastern time.

First up, 10-time women’s champion Miki Sudo will take the stage as the obvious choice to win her competition.

How many hot dogs could you eat in one sitting?

It’s a beautiful morning in the city of Toronto.

The sun is out, the coffee is hot, and by the time this year’s Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest is over I might be tempted to fire up the grill for a little barbecue myself.

Honey, did you remember to pick up the Spaducci?

Meanwhile, there’s a buzz in the air throughout the city this morning as the Toronto Blue Jays have rallied to take over first place of the American League East standings.

It’s the first time since 2016 that Toronto has held sole possession of top spot in the division this late in the year.

Taking a quick glance at their upcoming schedule, there’s no reason to think that the Blue Jays can’t have the best record in the AL East at the MLB All-Star Break.

And with the defending Grey Cup champion Toronto Argonauts set to host the rival Hamilton Tiger-Cats, the downtown core should be buzzing again tonight.

This is Morning Coffee for Friday July 6th, 2025.

Can The Blue Jays Beat The Odds To Win The AL East?

The New York Yankees are considered the team to beat in the American League East.

Well, the Blue Jays just beat them four times in a row.

In case you missed it, Toronto was the underdog at FanDuel in all four games.

The Blue Jays beat the Yankees 8-5 as a +114 dog on Thursday to complete the four-game series sweep.

Toronto is now one game up on New York and the Tampa Bay Rays in a suddenly crowded AL East division.

It’s the latest the Blue Jays have held sole possession of first place in their division since 2016.

Raise your hand if you saw this curve ball coming.

Toronto’s 36 runs scored in their four-game sweep the franchise’s most ever in a series against the Yankees.

The Blue Jays have won five in a row overall – their longest win streak since the start of last season.

George Springer led the way with four home runs and 11 RBI against New York, including four RBI on Thursday.

He leads Toronto with 15 homers and 51 RBI this season.

What are the odds that Springer can lead the Blue Jays to a division title this season?

Better than they were on Monday.

Toronto to win the AL East was +650 at FanDuel heading into the four-game series against the Yankees.

That number is all the way down to +190 this morning.

In terms of implied win probability, the Blue Jays have gone from a 13.3 per cent chance to a 34.5 per cent chance in a span of four days.

Toronto is also considered more likely to make the playoffs this morning than at any other point this year.

The Blue Jays are -430 to make the playoffs this morning.

That number represents an 81.1 per cent chance.

While baseball fans across Canada are buzzing, it’s a much different tale in the Bronx.

The Yankees have lost eight straight road games against AL East opponents overall – their longest losing streak against division opponents since 2000.

Their 23 runs against Toronto were the most New York has ever scored in a series in which they were swept.

Aaron Judge is the obvious favourite to repeat as AL MVP, but the Yankees have allowed five or more runs in six straight games – too much for their offence to overcome.

Next up, the pinstripes will have to deal with the latest installment of the Subway Series against the rival Mets.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays will be the favourite when they welcome the Los Angeles Angels to town for the start of a three-game series tonight.

With three games against each of the Angels, Chicago White Sox, and the Athletics on deck to close out the first half of the season, there’s no reason Toronto can’t have at least a share of first place in the AL East standings by the time the MLB All-Star Break rolls around.

In fact, I’ll lock in Blue Jays moneyline as a FanDuel Best Bet for tonight’s series opener against LA.

Don’t stop the party now.

Meanwhile, down the street the Argonauts will be looking to keep their boat afloat against the visiting TiCats as they continue to deal with injuries.

Chad Kelly won’t play until after their upcoming bye.

Considering how many key players are banged up, Toronto desperately needs some extra time to prepare for a Week 7 showdown against the Montreal Alouettes.

If things don’t get better on the injury front, they might need Henoc Muamba to suit up again at some point.

The spread for tonight’s game opened Toronto -1.5 at FanDuel.

I’m staring at Hamilton -4.5 on the FanDuel app this morning.

If the current number holds, it would be the biggest adjustment we’ve seen in any CFL game this season.

If the Argos can somehow pull off the upset tonight, they’ll be in decent shape heading into the bye week.

Regardless, there’s no reason for fans of the Boatmen to panic this early in a long CFL season.

If you need some inspiration that they can turn things around just look at what the Blue Jays have done.

Happy Fourth of July weekend, everyone!

Enjoy the sunshine while it lasts!