Morning Coffee: Chiefs eye AFC crown as playoff races heat up

You can’t build a reputation on what you are going to do.

Reputations and credibility are built on accomplishments.

The Kansas City Chiefs are the two-time defending Super Bowl champions.

They’ve won 42 of their previous 52 games over the last three seasons, including 

They’ve gone a combined 42-10 over the last three years, winning 17 of their previous 18 games dating back to Christmas Day last season.

Patrick Mahomes and company took another important step towards an unprecedented Super Bowl three-peat with a 19-17 win over the rival Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday Night Football.

The Chiefs clinched their ninth straight AFC West title.

Kansas City also extended its lead atop the AFC to two games with an NFL-best 12-1 record.

Andy Reid’s team is on pace to lock up the AFC’s No. 1 seed, a first-round playoff bye, and home-field advantage for the potential road to another Super Bowl once again.

Despite all of this, the Chiefs aren’t the betting favourite to win it all at FanDuel this morning.

The Detroit Lions remain the frontrunner after a narrow win over the rival Green Bay Packers to improve to 12-1.

The Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills, and the Baltimore Ravens round out the list of teams that have 10-to-1 odds or shorter to win the Super Bowl.

Is there any reason to expect that list – or the order of that list – to change between now and the postseason?

There’s still a lot left to be determined over the final four weeks of the NFL regular season.

This is the Morning Coffee for Monday December 9th, 2024.

Chiefs Eye AFC Crown As Playoff Races Heat Up

It’s one of the most wonderful times of the year for football fans.

The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff is set.

The college football bowl season begins this Saturday.

Plus, we’ll get a ton of NFL action throughout the month of December, including Wednesday and Saturday games.

While we could see some interesting scenarios play out as teams in the hunt battle for a playoff spot, the fight for postseason position might be the most interesting angle.

In the AFC, the Chiefs are in pole position for the coveted No. 1 seed and all the advantages that come with it.

Despite another MVP-calibre performance by Josh Allen on Sunday, the Bills ultimately lost to the Los Angeles Rams in a game they couldn’t afford to lose as they try to chase down Kansas City for that No. 1 seed.

The schedule doesn’t get any easier for Buffalo this week. 

They’re a small underdog for Sunday’s game in Detroit.

If they had won on Sunday, the Bills might have had a chance at the No. 1 seed.

With a loss, Buffalo is now tied with Pittsburgh for the No. 2 seed at 10-3 with four games remaining.

There is no doubt the Bills are among the NFL’s most talented teams.

At the same time, they would have been in much better shape to face Kansas City with one fewer playoff game and home-field advantage for a potential showdown in the AFC Championship Game.

The Ravens emerge from their bye week with their sights set on an AFC North title and home-field advantage for at least one playoff game. 

Based on the way they dismantled the Bills in a 35-10 win earlier this season, it’s easy to believe Baltimore would prefer a home playoff game against the second Wild Card and a trip to Buffalo over a road playoff game in Houston and a trip to Kansas City come playoff time.

The Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens are all legitimate contenders in the AFC. 

The Texans are the only other AFC team that I believe has the potential to surprise as a clear fourth choice from that conference.

It will be very interesting to see how the AFC playoff picture plays out.

Meanwhile, the Lions have won 12 of their first 13 games, but they’re still just one game up on the Eagles and the Minnesota Vikings for the NFC’s best record.

The Lions need a win over Buffalo to maintain their current position in the standings.

With games against the Bills, at the Chicago Bears, at the San Francisco 49ers, then home to the Minnesota Vikings to close out the regular season, Detroit isn’t even guaranteed a home playoff game just yet.

The Lions might have the edge over the Eagles as the NFC’s best team, but their path to the Super Bowl would become that much more difficult if they were forced to swap a first-round playoff bye and home-field advantage for games at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, at Minnesota, and then at Philadelphia.

The same goes for both the Eagles and the Vikings.

All three of Detroit, Philadelphia, and Minnesota enjoy distinct home-field advantages in their stadiums.

That makes the next four weeks that much more important for all three teams as they jockey for position atop the NFC in a fight for the No. 1 seed.

A FanDuel Best Bet For Monday Night Football

Unfortunately, we’ll have to wait until Thursday for the next NFL game with significant playoff implications.

Fortunately, we can still enjoy Monday Night Football with a chance to lock in another FanDuel Best Bet winner in this column this morning.

The Cincinnati Bengals and Dallas Cowboys have been two of the league’s most disappointing teams.

Both teams have already clinched the under on their regular season win totals (10.5).

Barring an absolute miracle run by Cincinnati, both teams will miss the playoffs.

The Bengals are currently a 5.5-point favourite for tonight’s game in Dallas.

Cincinnati is 3-0 against the spread as road favourites.

On the flip side, the Cowboys have gone 0-4 ATS as a home underdog.

While I lean Bengals against the spread, I’m going a different route for my FanDuel Best Bet.

I’m focused on the Canadian Chase Brown against a Cowboys defence that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.

Dallas has allowed an average of 101.9 rushing yards and 37.6 receiving yards on 3.7 receptions per game to opposing running backs this season.

Brown has emerged as a fantasy stud, averaging 5.7 receptions for 46.3 receiving yards, along with 66.0 rushing yards over the past four weeks.

He’s registered 30 or more receiving yards on three or more receptions in four straight games.

Brown should be in line for another busy night with an ideal match-up in prime-time tonight.

I’ll lock in Brown over 23.5 receiving yards as my FanDuel Best Bet for Monday Night Football.

Enjoy the game, everyone!