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Morning Coffee: Chiefs, Niners set for Super Bowl rematch

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Maybe revenge had nothing to do with it after all this time.

Still, you must think that for Sean Payton, a crucial win on the road over the team he led to a Super Bowl win had to feel just a little bit sweeter than most.

The Denver Broncos beat up on the New Orleans Saints in a 33-10 victory on Thursday Night Football.

The 23-point margin of victory was the third largest ever for a head coach against an opponent that they won a Super Bowl with.

Bo Nix’s numbers would have looked even better if the game wasn’t over by the third quarter.

The Broncos are down to +205 to make the playoffs at FanDuel after they improved to 4-3.

With the Carolina Panthers on deck in Week 8, there’s a chance that number is even lower 10 days from now.

On the flip side, things went from bad to worse for a Saints side that has been absolutely devastated by injuries so far this season.

Considering how many key pieces the team is missing, it’s no surprise that New Orleans has been outscored by a combined 56 points since halftime of last week’s loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Saints have lost four in a row following an 0-2 start.

Still, when you consider all the core players that are currently sidelined due to injury, it’s hard for me to believe that head coach Dennis Allen should be blamed.

Finally, we pulled out another sweep last night with the FanDuel Best Bets in this column to make it five straight winners overall dating back to Monday night.

We’ll try to stay hot with another winner in this column.

This is the Morning Coffee for Friday October 18th, 2024.

Chiefs, Niners Set For Super Bowl Rematch

The Kansas City Chiefs are the two-time defending Super Bowl champions and the favourite to complete a historic three-peat at FanDuel with another ring this year.

The San Francisco 49ers are the reigning NFC champions and the favourite to represent their conference in the Super Bowl again this season.

On Sunday, the top two choices to win it all will clash in San Francisco in a rematch of Super Bowl 58.

 

 

The 49ers have held steady as a small favourite at FanDuel at -1.5.

The total has ticked up from 46.5 to 47.5.

There are a few notable trends that stood out to me when looking at this match-up.

First, Patrick Mahomes is 11-1-1 against the spread as an underdog in his career with four straight outright wins.

 

Second, Andy Reid is 21-4 straight up in his career following a bye week – the best mark by any head coach since the bye week first came into play back in 1990.

 

Kansas City is the first defending Super Bowl champion to start 5-0 since the New England Patriots started 8-0 in 2019.

Meanwhile, the 49ers are coming off their most impressive win of the season over the injury-riddled Seattle Seahawks in Week 6.

 

 

However, San Francisco is 3-3 straight up and against the spread through the first six weeks.

That record includes a pair of ugly losses to the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals as favourites of 6.5 points or more.

With Christian McCaffrey still sidelined and Jordan Mason dealing with an injury, a traditionally strong 49ers’ rushing attack could be in tough to move the football on the ground against a Kansas City defence that has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs in the NFL (52.6 per game) this season.

If there’s one area where the Chiefs are vulnerable, it’s the middle of the field where tight ends have put up some big numbers against them this season.

Kansas City has allowed an average of 81.8 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends this season.

On the other side, George Kittle has been a very reliable weapon for Brock Purdy and the Niners this season.

Kittle has registered 40 or more receiving yards in all five games that he has played.

 

He posted a season-high eight catches for 64 yards and a touchdown in Week 5 against the Cardinals, then followed that up with five catches for 58 yards and two touchdowns against the Seahawks in Week 6.

With Jauan Jennings questionable due to a hip injury, Deebo Samuel limited at practice with a wrist injury, and Brandon Aiyuk set to go up against Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie in a difficult match-up, all signs point towards another big game for Kittle.

I’ll lock in Kittle over 48.5 receiving yards as a FanDuel Best Bet for Week 7 in the NFL.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs are also dealing with some significant injuries heading into this game.

Rashee Rice is done for the season and his replacement JuJu Smith-Schuster popped up on the injury report with a hamstring injury that limited him in practice.

Initially, I was looking forward to jumping on Smith-Schuster’s receiving yards prop as he filled in the Rice role opposite Travis Kelce, but I’m hesitant to lock it in as a FanDuel Best Bet because of the injury news.

 

 

I also considered an SGP with Kittle 40+ receiving yards and Kansas City +8.5 at -110 for this game.

As I mentioned off the top, historically Mahomes and Reid have been very good in similar spots.

Over the last three seasons, the Chiefs have just one loss by more than eight points.

That’s certainly another bet that I’ll consider as we get set for NFL Sunday Week 7.

One more thing before I go – I mentioned in Thursday’s column that my fantasy hockey pool group chat has been on fire of late.

We cashed a Same Game Parlay with the Edmonton Oilers to win and Jeff Skinner to record 2+ shots on goal on Tuesday night.

Then on Wednesday night, it was the Auston Matthews anytime goal scorer prop as the Rocket Richard Trophy favourite scored his first of the season.

Then last night, it was another NFL prime-time game sweep as the FanDuel Best Bets in this column went 2-0.

We also tailed the best bet from Davis Sanchez, which has also gone 2-0 this week.

 

 

As I told everybody in the group chat, the most important rule to remember is that responsible gaming is the key to success.

I always place one unit on each FanDuel Best Bet recommendation and it’s usually a quarter-unit on the longshot Same Game Parlays and SGP+ that I build.

In case you’re wondering, the group chat was fired up this morning about a traditional NHL parlay with the Winnipeg Jets and Colorado Avalanche to both win outright that netted -113 odds at FanDuel.

Hopefully, the Jets and Avalanche both deliver as big favourites on the ice tonight.

My FanDuel Best Bet for Sunday is locked in with Kittle over 48.5 receiving yards against the Chiefs.

As usual, I’ll also post my full NFL Sunday card on my X account @Domenic_Padula so stay tuned for that!

Have a great weekend, everyone!