Morning Coffee: Jets cover after Mahomes’ slide to seal Chiefs’ win

There are moments that define each week of the NFL season for those of us that are bold enough to wager on the games.

For anyone who bet on the spread for Sunday Night Football this week, time stood still for a long moment in the final minutes of last night’s game.

The Kansas City Chiefs led the New York Jets 23-20 with two minutes left in regulation.

The Chiefs, which could be found anywhere between -7.5 and -9.5 at FanDuel throughout the week, faced a third- and-8 from the Jets 11-yard line.

Patrick Mahomes dropped back to pass, felt the pressure, and then took off towards the end zone. Seven points would give Kansas City a 30-20 lead.

Anyone who bet the Chiefs against the spread at any price throughout the week at FanDuel needed the touchdown to cover.

Instead, Mahomes reached the line to gain for the first down and then slid inbounds to make sure the clock didn’t stop.

That first down allowed Kansas City to end the game with a pair of kneels. Chiefs win, 23-20.

Anyone who took the points with the Jets at any point throughout the week celebrated Mahomes’ brilliance as a moment of destiny.

Anyone who laid the points with Kansas City likely had a much different take after suffering another memorable bad beat.

These are the moments that define the season for some of us.

If you bet on the Sunday Night Football spread at FanDuel, I hope you were on the winning side.

This is the Morning Coffee for Monday Oct. 2, 2023.

The FanDuel Five from NFL Sunday Week 4

Reid earns 250th career win as head coach

All of the buzz heading into last night’s game was centred on a certain star tight end and the pop star that put him on the map.

Unfortunately for anybody who bet on the “Swelce” props, it was the other Chiefs tight end Noah Gray who scored on Mahomes’ lone touchdown pass of the night.

It was the first time this season that a Same Game Parlay with Kansas City to win and Travis Kelce to score did not cash.

While the Jets ultimately covered the spread, Andy Reid earned his 250th regular-season win as a head coach, tying Tom Landry for the fourth-most in NFL history.

The Chiefs are co-favourites to win the Super Bowl with the San Francisco 49ers at +550 at FanDuel.

Kansas City is laying 5.5 against the Minnesota Vikings next week.

49ers, Eagles remain undefeated

Christian McCaffrey powered the 49ers to a 35-16 win over the Arizona Cardinals with 177 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns.

McCaffrey has scored a touchdown in 13 straight games for San Francisco.

A Same Game Parlay with 49ers to win and McCaffrey to score is 4-0 this season.

Don’t look now, but Brock Purdy is 9-0 in the regular season as an NFL starter.

The 49ers are laying 3.5 against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 5.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Eagles survived a scare from the Washington Commanders with a 34-31 win in overtime to stay perfect.

The Eagles are a 5.5-point favourite for their Week 5 clash with the Los Angeles Rams.

Bills dominate Fins in AFC East showdown

Josh Allen threw for 320 yards and four touchdowns with a rushing score to lead the Buffalo Bills to a 48-20 win over the AFC East-rival Miami Dolphins.

The Bills have scored 123 points in their past three games – the second-most points scored over a three-game span in franchise history.

Buffalo is the favourite to win the AFC East at -120. Miami is the second choice at +125.

Next up, Allen and company will head overseas to face the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 5.

The Bills are a 5.5-point favourite for that game at FanDuel.

The Dolphins are laying 9.5 against the New York Giants.

Broncos finally get in the win column

For the first time ever, Russell Wilson and Sean Payton celebrated a regular season win together as quarterback and head coach.

It wasn’t easy, as the Denver Broncos trailed the winless Chicago Bears by 21 points.

However, Wilson led the Broncos to 24 unanswered points in the second half as Denver pulled out the 31-28 victory on the road.

It was the largest blown lead in Bears franchise history.

Next up, Chicago will travel to Washington as a 6.5-point underdog in Week 5.

The Broncos are a 2.5-point favourite at home against the Jets.

Cowboys hand Belichick his worst loss ever

The Dallas Cowboys went off as a 5.5-point favourite against the New England Patriots.

Prior to the game, a co-worker asked me if I would take the points with the Patriots. I advised against it. Dallas won that game 38-3.

The 35-point loss was the largest of Bill Belichick’s career as a head coach.

While New England will continue to get the benefit of the doubt based on everything Belichick has accomplished throughout his career, the reality is that he doesn’t have the talent that he needs to guide his team to the playoffs in a loaded AFC.

That’s why I faded the Patriots and took them to finish under 7.5 wins at FanDuel.

I feel pretty good about that bet now with New England at 1-3 heading into next week’s clash with the New Orleans Saints.

The Patriots are a 1.5-point favourite for that contest at FanDuel.

An early lean for Week 5 in the NFL

While I usually have a FanDuel Best Bet for every prime-time game, I haven’t locked in anything for Monday Night Football just yet.

The New York Giants are 1-2 and dealing with some notable injuries, but their only losses have come against two of the NFC’s best teams in the Cowboys and 49ers, and this is a very interesting spot for them to get back to .500 at home.

That said, Daniel Jones is 1-11 all-time as a starting quarterback in prime-time games, and the Seattle Seahawks have flipped from a 1.5-point underdog to a 1.5-point favourite at FanDuel this week.

I’m going to hold off on recommending a FanDuel Best Bet for Monday Night Football for now.

However, I might have something that I post on social closer to game time, so give me a follow @DomPadulaEDGE on X.

For now, I’m going to lock in an early lean for Week 5.

As I highlighted above, the 49ers have never lost a regular season game with Purdy at quarterback.

McCaffrey has been an absolute monster for San Francisco, and he carried the team on Sunday to give Deebo Samuel and George Kittle a breather ahead of a Week 5 showdown against the Cowboys.

I jumped on the 49ers at -162 on the money line.

I’ll recommend a play on San Francisco to beat Dallas as my Early Lean for Week 5 in the NFL.