Morning Coffee: Maple Leafs face longer odds to advance than before Game 1 at FanDuel

Leafs Nation has watched this movie before.

As a matter of fact, this franchise has more sequels than The Fast and the Furious over the last decade.

The series of disappointments the Toronto Maple Leafs have compiled in the Stanley Cup Playoffs has rivalled the Marvel Cinematic Universe in recent years, only with the types of endings fit for a Game of Thrones spin-off.

Deep down, Leafs Nation is starting to get that sinking feeling a Red Wedding could be just around the corner.

Toronto hockey fans were feasting after their beloved blue and white pulled off consecutive upset wins over the defending Stanley Cup champions to take a 2-0 lead.

After back-to-back losses to the Florida Panthers, suddenly their Stanley Cup hopes seem a lot more like Robb Stark’s chances of surviving a feast with the Freys.

Siri, play the Rains of Castamere.

At least, that was the vibe I got last night from my buddies in the group chat after a Game 4 loss.

There was a lot of anger.

There was a lot of disappointment.

The guys in the group chat have been around the block with this team enough times to sense a potential collapse could be lurking in the shadows.

At the same time, an objective observer might caution against running for the exits just yet.

A year ago, Leafs Nation would have jumped at a chance to be two wins away from the Eastern Conference Finals with home-ice advantage after starting the series 2-0 at Scotiabank Arena versus Florida.

As tough as it is going to be to eliminate the Cats, the Maple Leafs return home with an excellent opportunity in front of them in a series that has been reduced to a best-of-three.

Suddenly it seems like nobody believes Toronto has what it takes to advance, as if it was ever supposed to be easy against the defending Stanley Cup champions.

Now the Maple Leafs have longer odds to win the series this morning at FanDuel than they did before Game 1.

This is the Morning Coffee for Monday May 12th, 2025.

Maple Leafs Face Longer Odds To Advance Than Before Game 1 At FanDuel

The Maple Leafs had the longest odds to advance of the eight teams that qualified for the second round in this year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Toronto upset Florida at +108 to win the series opener.

Then in Game 2, the Maple Leafs stunned the Panthers as a +132 underdog to take a 2-0 series lead.

At the time, Toronto’s odds to advance were cut from +146 to -210 at FanDuel.

Then with a 3-1 lead on the road in Game 3, the Maple Leafs appeared to be on the verge of getting the defending champs on the ropes.

Then came what could ultimately be a TSN Turning Point.

After falling behind 3-1 in Game 3, Florida has outscored Toronto a combined 6-1 while registering back-to-back wins on home ice to tie the series 2-2.

The Panthers odds to win the series flipped from +172 down 2-0 to -200 tied 2-2.

Florida opened -142 to win Game 5 in Toronto.

That number has since climbed to Panthers -152 with the Cats being a popular pick to make it three wins in a row.

If that happens, the Maple Leafs would go from being an overtime goal away from a 3-0 series lead to trailing 3-2 in the series with Game 6 in Florida on Friday night.

Nightmare fuel for Leafs Nation.

The good news is that Toronto can still right the ship.

The Maple Leafs have been underdogs in all four games so far, including both games on home ice.

Toronto already upset Florida in Games 1 and 2, and they nearly did it again in Game 3 on the road.

I get it.

Leafs Nation has been burned before and they have the scar tissue to prove that heartbreak.

Still, the current Maple Leafs have proved they can skate with the Panthers, with all three games decided by a single goal until last night’s 2-0 loss.

Considering they were the underdog heading into the series and that they still haven’t lost on home ice, I still believe there is reason for optimism.

Apparently, I'm not the only one.

Per the FanDuel traders, 57 per cent of the bets are on Toronto to win Game 5.

65% of the bets are on the blue and white to win the series.

Regardless, it will be a long 72 hours for Leafs Nation.

Wednesday night can't get here soon enough.

A FanDuel Best Bet For Monday Night

In case you missed it, Luke Bellus and I have been on fire setting up every Toronto game with a FanDuel Best Bet.

Last night, the FanDuel Best Bets improved to 4-0 in the series midway through the second period.

Hopefully, we can run it back with another winner for Game 5 on Wednesday night.

Maple Leafs moneyline, anyone?

In the meantime, I’ll lock in a builder Same Game Parlay with Connor McDavid 2+ shots on goal, Leon Draisaitl 2+ shots on goal, and the alt over 5.5 goals in tonight’s Game 4 between the Edmonton Oilers and Vegas Golden Knights as a FanDuel Best Bet at -110.

McDavid and Draisaitl to record 2+ shots on goal is a combined 6-for-6 in the series and 18-for-18 in these Stanley Cup Playoffs to date.

Over 5.5 goals is 3-for-3 in the series and 8-for-9 in Edmonton’s games this postseason.

I’ll take McDavid 2+ shots, Draisaitl 2+ shots, and the alt over 5.5 as a builder SGP at -110 as a FanDuel Best Bet.

Make sure you give me a follow @Domenic_Padula on X for my full card for tonight’s games.

Have a great day, everyone!