Morning Coffee: Maple Leafs, Senators brace for Game 6 in the Battle of Ontario

In the Stanley Cup Playoffs, every game is another round in the ring of a championship fight.

Sure, it matters how hard you hit.

It’s also about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward.

The Edmonton Oilers were on the ropes late in Game 4 of their first round series against the Los Angeles Kings.

Imagine how easy it would have been for their stars to throw in the towel down 3-1 late in the third period.

Instead, the Oilers endured and battled back with a pair of third-period goals by Evan Bouchard to force overtime.

Leon Draisaitl landed the knockout punch in OT.

Edmonton could be found as long as +1800 to win that game live at FanDuel trailing late in the third period.

After surviving with a Game 4 win, the Oilers responded with their best performance of the series in a 3-1 victory in Game 5 in Los Angeles to take a 3-2 series lead.

Now, that first round series shifts back to Edmonton, with the Oilers getting an opportunity to punch their ticket to the second round with a win on home ice tonight.

In the Stanley Cup Playoffs, when you see an opportunity, you better take it, because it might not come again.

Tonight, the Toronto Maple Leafs will get a third chance to eliminate the Ottawa Senators in the Battle of Ontario.

The Maple Leafs had the Senators on the ropes after winning three straight games to open the series.

However, Ottawa has responded with back-to-back wins, and suddenly it’s the Senators on the attack heading into another must-win on home ice in Game 6 tonight.

Brady Tkachuk and company were forced to let go of any doubts they had and go all-in to win Game 4 and Game 5.

Suddenly, the Senators see a window of opportunity to steal the series, and they believe they can do it.

Now it’s up to Auston Matthews and the Maple Leafs to counter with their best punch in the Battle of Ontario.

Toronto better take advantage of this opportunity.

Because in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, every missed chance is a potential one-way ticket to get knocked out.

This is the Morning Coffee for Thursday May 1st, 2025.

Maple Leafs, Senators brace for Game 6 in the Battle of Ontario

Fool me once, shame on you.

Fool me twice, and well, that’s all it took for Leafs Nation to start preparing for another playoff implosion.

Maybe it’s just me, but burning jerseys seems a little excessive under the circumstances.

Sure, the Maple Leafs are 1-13 in their last 14 potential playoff series-clinching games dating back to 2018.

And yes, I agree that their lack of urgency in Game 5 on home ice was difficult to watch.

Almost nobody expected the winner in the Battle of Florida to advance to the second round before the winner in the Battle of Ontario.

Still, Toronto hasn’t lost three games in a row this season.

And it will take four losses in a row for an early exit.

Does the winner of the Battle of Ontario have a fighter’s chance against the defending Stanley Cup champions in the second round?

Sure, they do, but I’ll still bet the Panthers regardless of whether they play Toronto or Ottawa.

If the Maple Leafs win the series in six or seven, then Game 5 might not have much of an impact on the actual outcome of their season, even if it was awful to watch.

Leafs Nation has the scars to prove the heartbreak they’ve endured over the past two decades.

So, I understand how frustrated they must be after they thought the Maple Leafs were about to punch their ticket to the second round, only to watch them get shut out in their sixth-consecutive potential series-clinching loss on home ice.

Still, I’m willing to give Toronto the benefit of the doubt, and all things considered getting them at -102 to win tonight at FanDuel is excellent value if you believe they have what it takes to respond as the better team.

Per the FanDuel traders, only 63 per cent of the bets are on the Maple Leafs to win tonight.

37 per cent of the bets are on Ottawa to force a Game 7 and 69 per cent of the bets in the puck line market are on the Senators to at least keep it close and cover the +1.5.

I’ll take the Maple Leafs to win in Ottawa at -102 as a FanDuel Best Bet for tonight’s Stanley Cup Playoff action.

Meanwhile, I’ll also lock in over 5.5 goals for Game 6 between the Oilers and Kings as a FanDuel Best Bet.

Game 5 was the first in that series that didn’t go over 5.5 total goals.

Believe it or not, a whopping 99 per cent of the bets are on the over to hit in Edmonton tonight.

Count me among that overwhelming majority.

Hopefully, two Canadian teams punch their ticket to the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs tonight.

Anything less, and it’s going to be a very anxious 48 hours for hockey fans in Toronto and Edmonton.

Have a great day, everyone!