Morning Coffee: Parsons trade leads to major shake up in NFL betting markets

What are they feeding the squirrels in Dallas?!

Six months back, the Dallas Mavericks pulled off the most stunning trade in NBA history when they sent Luka Doncic - a perennial MVP candidate entering the prime of his career - to a conference rival.

Mavericks GM Nico Harrison tried to convince us all that the trade happened because Dallas needed to play better defence to contend for an NBA championship.

Never mind the fact that Doncic had just dragged them to the NBA Finals the previous season with an unforgettable individual performance that cemented his status among the elite talents in the association.

Harrison was convinced that Anthony Davis was a better option than Doncic and that meant he wouldn’t need to bother shopping one of the league’s biggest superstars to find the best possible return.

The fact that Harrison went on to find a golden ticket in the first overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft and the right to select a new face of the franchise in Cooper Flagg was a plot twist that we will talk about for decades.

Six months post-Doncic deal, it’s Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones looking for his own golden ticket.

The Cowboys pulled off an unprecedented trade when they sent Micah Parsons – a perennial All-Pro candidate and the AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year favourite entering the prime of his career – to a conference rival.

If you listened to Thursday’s post-trade press conference, you might have felt a sense of deja-vu as Jones explained how the team’s poor run defence factored so heavily into his decision to trade Parsons to an NFC rival.

It was like listening to somebody attempting to convince you it makes sense to trade a Lamborghini for a minivan because you need more space to carpool to the office.

Dallas wasn’t a Super Bowl contender with Parsons.

The Cowboys aren’t closer to contending without him.

This is Morning Coffee for Friday August 29th, 2025.

Parsons Trade Leads To Major Shake Up In NFL Betting Markets

The Cowboys have not reached the NFC Championship since their last Super Bowl win nearly three decades ago.

After three straight 12-win seasons, Dallas took a major step back last year when they went 7-10 and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2020.

With a new head coach, new coordinators, as well as the additions of several key free agents and rookies, FanDuel bettors bought the idea the Cowboys could be one of the most improved teams in the NFL.

Per the FanDuel traders, 82 per cent of all bets on their regular season win total were on Dallas over 7.5.

Of course, anybody who bet the Cowboys to improve their win total in 2025 expected the AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year favourite to be part of the equation.

In fact, nearly one in every four bets on the Defensive Player of the Year market at FanDuel is on Parsons.

Nobody who bet on improvement on Dallas expected Parsons would line up for one of their rivals this season.

Listening to Jones explain his reasoning behind the trade didn’t make it any easier for Cowboys fans to accept.

Parsons is a two-time First-Team All-Pro linebacker that has registered at least 12 sacks in each of his first four seasons in the NFL.

The 26-year-old has led the league in Pass Rush Win Rate since his arrival in Dallas in 2021, finishing first or second in that metric among players with at least 200 pass rushes in all four seasons.

The Cowboys traded Parsons to the Green Bay Packers for Kenny Clark and two first round picks.

The Packers immediately handed Parsons a record four-year, $188 million contract that includes a total of $136 million in guaranteed money.

Green Bay’s odds to win the Super Bowl were cut from +1900 to +1200 at FanDuel.

Meanwhile, Dallas to win the Super Bowl was always a long shot, but it did climb from +4500 to +6000.

The Packers also leapfrogged the Detroit Lions as the favourite to win the NFC North and are now the second choice to win the NFC Championship behind the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles.

Green Bay will host Dallas on Sunday Night Football in Week 4.

Those FanDuel market moves highlight the positive impact that adding Parsons has on the Packers outlook.

Meanwhile, any optimism surrounding the Cowboys has been tempered in both the short and long term.

Jones detailed how Clark was integral to any Parsons deal because Dallas needed to be better against the run.

However, even if the 29-year-old Clark improves their run defence in the short term, it just came at the cost of losing the best pure pass rusher in the entire NFL.

The Cowboys also got two first round picks in the deal.

Will they use those picks to find a player to replace Parsons as a pass rusher? 

The Packers are now among the top five choices to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel.

If they come even close to meeting expectations, it would mean that Dallas ends up with two late first round picks.

Maybe the Cowboys didn’t want to pay Parsons?

Well, Jones admitted he was willing to make Parsons the highest-paid non-quarterback in the NFL back in April. 

The fact that Dallas had the best pure pass rusher in the league on its roster and Jones wanted to keep him long term, only to end up trading him to a conference rival for a veteran defensive tackle and two late first round picks doesn’t seem to add up.

The fact that two superstars in the prime of their careers were traded from teams based in Dallas to conference rivals in a span of six months is still hard to believe.

The good news for Stars fans is that Mikko Rantanen appears to be safe, at least for now.

Then again, all bets are off when it comes to what happens next in Dallas six months from now.

Have a great weekend, everyone!