Morning Coffee: What is the ceiling for Chargers in year two under Harbaugh?

“You can’t go 2-0 unless you’re 1-0.”

I’m 80 per cent sure Jim Harbaugh came up with that quote while chugging a whole glass of milk after mapping out a 4th-and-1 play on a dinner napkin.

It sounds more like something my dad would say to me before a hockey season opener as a kid than a quote from an NFL head coach, but Harbaugh’s ability to distill the chaos surrounding a $6 billion franchise down to something you’d read on a bumper sticker appeals to me.

In a world tangled in complexity, I’ve come to appreciate Harbaugh’s approach more with every press conference.

The Los Angeles Chargers opened the season with an impressive 27-21 win over the rival Kansas City Chiefs.

Harbaugh improved to 6-0 in season openers as an NFL head coach – the second-most Week 1 wins without a loss in NFL history.

More importantly, the Chargers snapped a seven-game losing streak versus KC with their first head-to-head win since Week 3 of the 2021 NFL season.

LA exceeded all expectations in Year 1 under Harbaugh.

The Chargers went from a 5-12 team to 11-6 and made just their second playoff appearance in six seasons.

A Week 1 win over the Chiefs reinforced the belief that LA has the potential to continue its ascent in Harbaugh’s second season as head coach.

That sentiment led me to explore potential value plays in FanDuel futures markets that could correlate with the Chargers improving their win total in this Wednesday September 10th, 2025, edition of Morning Coffee.

What is the ceiling for Chargers in Year Two under Harbaugh?

The Chargers haven’t started 2-0 in consecutive seasons since Doug Flutie and Drew Brees were their quarterbacks in 2001 and 2002.

Now Justin Herbert will attempt to end that streak for LA.

All signs point towards the Chargers finishing with one of the best records in the NFL.

LA is expected to play a league-average schedule of opponents in the regular season.

However, after a Week 1 win over KC, most of their toughest games on paper aren’t until later in the year.

In case you’re wondering, the powder blues are back this week.

Between now and Week 14, the Chargers will play one opponent with shorter odds to win the Super Bowl – a home date with the Washington Commanders in Week 5.

LA will also play the Denver Broncos, Minnesota Vikings, and Pittsburgh Steelers during that stretch. They’ll have home field advantage for all three games.

The Chargers will also have home field for a Week 14 showdown with the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles and a Week 17 clash with the reigning AFC South champion Houston Texans.

The AFC West is talented, but LA is already 1-0 within the division with another primetime showdown in Vegas on deck for Monday Night Football in Week 2.

In case you missed it, I followed the advice of our NFL analyst Davis Sanchez and locked in Chargers -3 as a FanDuel Best Bet for this week’s games.

I’m also on the Green Bay Packers -3 against the Washington Commanders and the Eagles to beat the Chiefs outright at +105.

If those wagers go 3-0, LA will be 2-0 versus AFC West opponents and two games up on Kansas City in the division standings entering a home game against Denver in Week 3.

Transparently, I’m not rushing to fade Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs week-to-week, but their early schedule is daunting with games against the Eagles and Baltimore Ravens on either side of a trip to MetLife Stadium to face the New York Giants in Week 3.

Considering their injuries and lack of firepower on offence, my guess is general manager Brett Veach is working the phones trying to get some help on offence as Kansas City stares a potential 0-4 ATS start.

As for the Chargers, +300 to win the AFC West seemed like decent value for a team that is 1-0 following a statement win over the Chiefs.

That number is down to +180 at FanDuel this morning.

Kansas City remains the favourite at +170.

Meanwhile, Harbaugh to win AP NFL Coach of the Year is +1400 as the seventh choice on the board.

I’ll hedge my pre-season bet on New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel with a bet on Harbaugh.

The Chargers could potentially improve on last year’s win total (11) and end Kansas City’s streak of nine straight AFC West titles in Harbaugh’s second season.

If that scenario plays out, Harbaugh’s odds to win Coach of the Year will be much shorter than the current price.

With a favourable early season schedule, those odds could be cut sooner than later, especially if he beats Pete Carroll’s Raiders and Sean Payton’s Broncos back-to-back.

LA is projected to be the favourite in both games.

Finally, with bets on Emeka Egbuka of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and TreVeyon Henderson of the New England Patriots in pocket, I sprinkled some coffee money on Chargers running back Omarion Hampton and Indianapolis Colts tight end Tyler Warren to win the AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award.

Hampton and Warren both popped in their NFL debuts.

I might have to add Jaxson Dart to my OROY card at +2000 to corner the market.

Considering his pedigree as the 22nd overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, the stacked offensive line he will run behind, the scheme he will play in under Greg Roman, and the fact that when healthy LA finally has the weapons at wide receiver and tight end to stretch the field, Hampton is in line for a strong rookie year.

Najee Harris will take away some touches when healthy, but Hampton should be the primary back for LA.

Nobody wants to overreact to one week, but Harbaugh is now 12-6 in his first 18 regular season games as the head coach of the Chargers, with a second offseason under his belt to acquire and develop what he needs to succeed.

The next stop is a Week 2 trip to Vegas and a chance to win a second straight game against a division opponent.

I’m on Chargers -3 against the Raiders this week.

You can’t go 2-0, unless you’re 1-0.

Hopefully, LA can get to 3-0 against AFC West opponents and force the FanDuel traders to adjust their odds for Harbaugh to win Coach of the Year and Hampton to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.