Morning Coffee: Will Bieber’s arrival help Blue Jays hold off surging Yankees?

Toronto Blue Jays fans are throwing petals like will they win the American League East or not?

The New York Yankees are suddenly red hot, and we don’t know when or even if they will stop.

So, hold on, hold on!

The Blue Jays got off to a good start on Wednesday when George Springer hit his 61st career leadoff home run in the first at-bat of the game.

Unfortunately, there weren’t many positives after that.

Toronto’s bats combined to go 2-for-28 the rest of the way as the Pittsburgh Pirates went on to pull off the upset with a 2-1 win as a +128 underdog at FanDuel.

The Pirates won two of three for their first series win in the month of August.

So much for all the talk about this week’s schedule providing the Blue Jays with a golden opportunity to pad their lead atop the AL East standings.

Instead, Toronto lost two of three in Pittsburgh, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. suffered a hamstring injury, and the Yankees have bounced back with four straight wins.

Suddenly, the Blue Jays lead atop the division is down to four games with six weeks left in the regular season.

The good news is that Shane Bieber has joined the team and is set to make his debut for Toronto in the opener of a three-game series against the Miami Marlins on Friday.

The bad news is that it doesn’t look like the pinstripes are going away anytime soon and their recent surge will only add to the pressure on a young team that has a long way to go to lock up a division title.

How concerned should Blue Jays fans be right now?

This is Morning Coffee for Thursday August 21st, 2025.

Will Bieber’s Arrival Help Blue Jays Hold Off Surging Yankees?

Shane Bieber is officially on Toronto’s 26-man roster.

The 30-year-old is coming off an impressive rehab stint with the Triple-A Buffalo Bisons and will make his first MLB start of the season in Miami on Friday.

Bieber arrives at a crucial point in the Blue Jays season.

Toronto has lost three of four and is now one game below .500 on the road this season.

While a match-up against the Marlins appears favourable on paper, the same could be said about their three-game series in Pittsburgh and we all know how that went.

Next week, the Blue Jays return home for six games against the Minnesota Twins and Milwaukee Brewers.

Toronto will be the favourite in all three games against the visiting Twins.

It could be a different story versus Milwaukee, which has run into some trouble against the rival Chicago Cubs this week but still owns the best record in the majors.

After that, the Blue Jays will travel for three games against the Cincinnati Reds, followed by three games against the New York Yankees.

What will the AL East standings look like at the conclusion of their series against the Yankees on September 7th?

As difficult as it is to project that far in advance, the shift we’ve seen in the AL East winner odds at FanDuel this week reflect the developing situation in the division.

Over the past 24 hours alone, New York’s odds to win the AL East have been cut from +330 to +230 at FanDuel.

In terms of implied win probability, that shift represents a move from a 23.3 per cent chance to a 30.3 per cent that the Yankees will beat out the Blue Jays for first place in the division.

In that same span, Toronto’s odds to win the AL East have shifted from -340 to -240.

While the Blue Jays remain the obvious favourite to win the division, it’s important to keep in mind how quickly things could change.

I was among the few that cautioned writing off the Yankees with so much baseball left to play this season.

New York has suddenly flipped a switch as winners of five straight and seven of its last eight games.

The Yankees are -142 to win the opener of a four-game series against the Boston Red Sox tonight.

The best-case scenario for Toronto would be a sweep in Miami this weekend combined with Boston and New York winning two games apiece in their four-game set.

The worst-case scenario would be the Yankees winning three or four against the Red Sox, combined with the Blue Jays failing to win their series against the Marlins.

If New York wins three of four versus Boston, and Miami wins two of three versus Toronto, the Yankees would be just two games back of the Blue Jays for first place in the AL East with three more head-to-head games and five weeks left in the regular season.

When I talked to former Blue Jay Travis Snider last week, he stressed the importance of tuning out the noise for a young team that has gone from the hunter to the hunted.

Well, the pinstripes offence just exploded for 14 home runs in back-to-back wins over Tampa Bay while the Toronto offence hit a wall in Pittsburgh.

The Blue Jays undoubtedly need this guy back healthy.

Still, if the Yankees win again tonight, the pressure will ramp up even more for the Blue Jays ahead of Bieber’s first start in Miami on Friday.

The veteran starter is certainly capable of providing some relief as he makes his return to the majors after a trade from the Cleveland Guardians at the deadline.

Bieber’s debut combined with Guerrero’s return to the lineup could be just what Toronto needs to weather the storm.

Hold on, hold on!

As for a FanDuel Best Bet, I’ll go with the Yankees to stay hot with another win over the rival Red Sox in tonight’s series opener at -142.

For a moment, it seemed as though Boston could challenge for a division title this season.

Instead, the Red Sox have taken a small step back, while the Yankees have surged thanks to an offence that has averaged nearly 10 (9.75) runs over its past four wins.

Boston has won five of the last six head-to-head meetings between these teams but has really struggled with consistency with a 3-7 record since August 9th.

I’ll bet on the pinstripes to win tonight at Yankees Stadium.

Hopefully for the Blue Jays, a healthy Bieber will help them hold off their biggest rival as the AL East race continues to heat up this weekend.