Setting The Pick – Incoming Thundershowers

The buzziest story all postseason has been the Cinderella run of the Indiana Pacers, led by clutch legend, Tyrese Haliburton.  

Tonight, our attention should divert to the Oklahoma City Thunder and the potential birth of a new dynasty.  

After setting an all-time NBA-best net rating in the regular season, OKC still faced skepticism to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy.  

This core had one playoff run in their past – a second-round defeat at the hands of the Dallas Mavericks last year.  

They’re the second-youngest team to win the chip since the 1977 Portland Trailblazers, should they reach the finish line.  

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the chance to be the fourth-ever player to win the scoring title, regular-season MVP, and Finals MVP all in the same season joining Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Michael Jordan, and Shaquille O’Neal. 

A lot of history on the line.  

What makes their impeding dominance seem plausible is the evolution of Jalen Williams under the brightest lights.  

A true 1B to Shai’s 1A, the comparisons to Scottie Pippen and MJ are reasonable.  

It’s less about the accomplishments and more about the style of play.  

Williams has proven he’s a capable scorer, but it’s his two-way game that earns him the Pippen comp.  

He was an All-NBA Second Team defensive player, capable of guarding one through five, and has averaged 25.8 ppg in the Finals.  

Unlike James Harden in past iterations of OKC, it’s understood that Williams and SGA are truly committed to dominating the league together.  

Add in the fact a 23-year-old future All-Star in Chet Holmgren is also part of this Big-3, you have a collaborative core that has potential to be the first repeat winners since Golden State.  

In case it wasn’t clear, I lean towards OKC hoisting the ‘Larry O’B’ on the road tonight.  

Here are my three favourite bets to wrap the 2024-25 season.  

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2+ steals (-106) or 1+ block (-174) 

Feel free to bet these separately, together or a shaved down SGP with one steal and block.  

In an elimination Game 6, I’m expecting nerves to play a bigger factor. 

The game total reflects that sitting at 222 at the time of writing.  

While SGA is up to 32.4 ppg in five games during these Finals, what’s been more consistent is Indiana’s determination to wear him out on the defensive end.  

They’ve hunted him every chance they’ve gotten on mismatches in the post or switch opportunities in the pick-and-roll. 

Like the ultimate superstar he is, SGA has brought it on both ends leading the series with 4.2 combined steals and blocks.  

Those numbers are obviously well above his season averages, but these Finals have been abnormal relative to all other games.  

Indy’s offence has been very intentional attacking him. 

Credit to head coach, Rick Carlislie - there are several ways to cut the head off the snake.  

Problem is, SGA’s teammate, J-Dub, has demonstrated an ability to step up, highlighted by his 40-burger in Game 5.  

Even though SGA has accumulated the most defensive stats and covered 3+ stocks in all five games, he’s still technically their weakest link defensively.  

If I were Indiana, I would continue avoiding Alex Caruso and Luguentz Dort at all costs.  

More opportunities should equal more defensive stats.  

Pascal Siakam over 21.5 points (+100) 

This bet rolls in my assumption that Haliburton will be nowhere near 100 percent.  

At the time of writing, he’s being marked as questionable and a game-time decision.  

As Milwaukee head coach, Doc Rivers, alluded to on Bill Simmons’ podcast, speculation points to Haliburton being hurt for multiple games now.  

Game 5 was simply the tipping point as we saw him iced up and getting treatment on the sideline.  

As a result, Siakam finished with a 29.4 usage rate (his highest of the Finals), well above his 23.1 average in the other four games.  

He ended at 28 points, the only Finals game he covered 21.5. 

While it’s fair to be skeptical of a repeat, Game 6 is a different beast for Indy; this is win or go home.  

I’m a huge proponent of betting on desperation.  

No blowouts, no need for rest, everything will be left out on the court.  

In the Finals, Siakam hasn’t only been their most consistent performer, he’s the only player with championship experience.  

The lights will be incredibly bright for their younger players, and I anticipate this being a game where Siakam leads by example.  

In six games played when Haliburton was out during the regular season, Siakam averaged 21.5 ppg (1.3 more than his season average) and covered 4 out of 6 games.  

In the previous five seasons, he averaged 22.6 ppg. 

Count on his minutes floor being higher than usual.  

I’m betting on his usage rate to mirror Game 5 and Haliburton to operate as a decoy.