Any Given Saturday: Plenty of room for overreactions after wild Week 1

Don’t overreact to Texas versus Ohio State in Week 1.

For months, the college football experts told us the result of Saturday’s showdown between the No. 1 Longhorns and No. 3 Buckeyes wouldn’t define either team’s season.

Then again, those same experts sold us on Arch Manning as the favourite to win the Heisman Trophy at FanDuel.

Anybody who bet on Texas to win their season opener might have a hard time keeping things in perspective.

The Longhorns held Ohio State to 126 passing yards.

The Buckeyes offence went 3-of-12 on third downs.

The Texas defence also held Ohio State to 89 rushing yards on 2.9 yards per carry and gave up just one play of 20 or more yards in the entire game.

The fact that the defence looked so good and Longhorns’ bettors never really felt good about their chances to cash their tickets makes it that much easier to understand the week 1 overreactions.

Personally, I can’t remember watching a Heisman Trophy favourite look that bad in a game.

Officially, Manning went 17-of-30 for 170 yards with one touchdown and one interception.

Those box score stats don’t come close to painting an accurate picture of how bad things looked on film.

In the first three quarters, Manning went 0-for-5 with one interception on pass attempts that travelled five or more air yards.

Manning finished with a 37 per cent off-target rate – the worst mark by any Texas quarterback in a single game over the last decade.

The Longhorns averaged 4.5 yards per carry for 166 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown.

Anybody who knew in advance that Texas would register 166 rushing yards and hold the Buckeyes to 14 points would have felt pretty good about their chances betting on the Longhorns to win this game.

Instead, Ohio State defensive coordinator Matt Patricia’s unit suffocated Manning, allowing head coach Ryan Day and offensive coordinator Brian Hartline to maintain a conservative approach to their play-calling on their way to extending their season opener win streak to 26.

Yes, it was only one game.

Still, Texas had the entire summer to prepare for this Week 1 showdown and the fact that the offence looked as bad as it did in its loss to the Buckeyes led to some major shakeups in FanDuel betting markets.

Manning to win the Heisman Trophy jumped from +700 as the favourite to +1800 as the eighth choice at FanDuel.

The Longhorns to win the College Football Playoff National Championship climbed from +550 as the favourite to +750 as the fourth choice.

Texas to make the CFP was adjusted from -300 to -188.

The Longhorns are a 35.5-point favourite for their next game against San Jose State, and they won’t face another ranked opponent until they visit No. 15 Florida on October 4th. 

Meanwhile, Ohio State to win the FBS Championship was cut from +700 to +600 at FanDuel.

The Buckeyes are now a co-favourite to repeat as national champions along with Georgia and Penn State.

Ohio State to make the playoff went from -280 to -620.

In terms of implied probability, that odds shift represents a jump from a 73.7 per cent chance to 86.1 per cent.

The Buckeyes still have a long way to go but they also won’t play another AP ranked opponent until October when they will travel to face No. 12 Illinois on the 11th.

Ohio State will also host No. 2 Penn State at the start of November and travel to face No. 14 Michigan in their regular season finale.

The Buckeyes remain the Big 12 Championship favourite at +190 at FanDuel.

The Nittany Lions (+210), Oregon Ducks (+480) and the Wolverines (+850) are the only other teams with shorter than 10-to-1 odds to win the conference title.

As for some other notable Week 1 reactions, Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer went from +2500 to +1600 to win the Heisman Trophy as a top five choice.

Mateer threw for a career-high 392 passing yards and three touchdowns while rushing for another score in a 35-3 win over Illinois State in his Sooners debut.

Florida State QB Tommy Castellanos rocketed up the board from +12500 to +3000 to win the Heisman Trophy after a 31-17 upset win over No. 8 Alabama as a +440 moneyline underdog.

Castellanos became the first non-SEC quarterback to register at least 150 passing yards and 75 rushing yards against the Crimson Tide since former Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray accomplished that feat in the 2018 Orange Bowl.

Meanwhile, Alabama to win the FBS National Championship nearly doubled from +900 as the fifth choice to +1700 as the ninth choice.

Clemson’s odds to win the College Football Playoff also climbed from +1200 as the sixth choice to +1600 as the eighth choice following a loss to LSU.

LSU to win the FBS Championship ticked down from +1300 to +1200 after picking up their first win in a season opener under head coach Brian Kelly.

Garrett Nussmeier went 28-of-38 for 230 yards and a touchdown in the win over Clemson.

Nussmeier has emerged as the Heisman Trophy favourite after his odds to win the award were cut from +900 to +750 at FanDuel.

Nussmeier is also the favourite to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft at +340.

Next up, LSU gets Louisiana Tech at home next Saturday, before hosting Florida the following weekend.

The Tigers have a difficult schedule once again in the loaded SEC, including regular season games against Ole Miss, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Alabama, and Oklahoma.

After an impressive win on the road against Clemson, you can count me among those that will be watching to see what’s in store for Nussmeier and company this season.

You can also count on NFL scouts keeping a close eye on the Heisman Trophy favourite and the favourite to be the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft moving forward.