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Morning Coffee: A bet on the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year market
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The best way to predict your future is to create it.
For fantasy football league managers and sports bettors, it’s one of the most wonderful times of the year.
There’s plenty of ways to spread the love when it comes to the betting markets that FanDuel has available for Week 1 of the NFL season.
Just like last year, the TSN sports betting team will do our best to highlight the top markets of interest and provide any possible insights we can to give bettors an edge.
A lot of that information can be easily translated for fantasy football purposes, which is where we start the week in this column.
The Pink Stripes are on the clock with the first-overall pick in the 2023 Dolphins Invitational fantasy football league. They also own the second-overall pick in tonight’s draft.
As an FYI, it’s a 12-team PPR keeper league and each manager selects three keepers every year.
The Pink Stripes kept Josh Allen, Mark Andrews, and Chris Olave.
know that because it’s the team I manage.
I landed the first- and second-overall picks last year when I finished just outside of a playoff spot after trading a package of players for an additional first-round pick.
Now I get to go 1-2 with the top choices in my keeper league.
I’ve already locked in the selections. It’s time to reveal them right here.
This is the Morning Coffee for Tuesday, Sept. 5, 2023.
A bet on the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year market
If you have done your fantasy football league research, then you probably know that running backs selected in the top 15 of the NFL Draft have more often than not been very productive in their rookie season.
Per ESPN Stats & Info, 16 of the 22 running backs selected among the top 15 picks in the draft dating back to 2000 have averaged at least 10 PPR points per game.
Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs were both taken as Top 12 Picks in the NFL Draft
— Alex Caruso (@AlexCaruso) August 28, 2023
And every RB drafted that high since 2012 finished as the RB11 or better as a rookie
Eight of those 22 running backs have averaged at least 15 PPR points per game.
In this year’s draft, two running backs were selected among the top 15.
The Atlanta Falcons selected Bijan Robinson with the eighth-overall pick.
The Detroit Lions selected Jahmyr Gibbs 12th overall.
Robinson and Gibbs are currently the first and fourth choices to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, respectively.
Robinson is the betting favourite to win the OROY at +300 odds. Gibbs is +900 to win the OROY.
"The #Lions have added an all-purpose weapon to their backfield with the selection of Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs at No. 12."@ttwentyman has the scoop.
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) April 28, 2023
A pair of quarterbacks – Bryce Young of the Carolina Panthers (+450) and Anthony Richardson of the Indianapolis Colts (+700) – are sandwiched in between them in that market.
Robinson, whose 35 total touchdowns at Texas over the past two seasons was the most in the FBS over that span, has emerged as a consensus top-10 pick in fantasy football leagues.
I was pretty confident I was going to take him first overall in my fantasy football league the moment I was awarded that pick.
Meanwhile, Gibbs is a little further down the list in terms of ADP, but the Lions were thrilled when they landed him with a top-12 pick in the draft, and I’m excited to see how they use him.
Gibbs led all FBS running backs with 914 receiving yards over the past two seasons at Alabama.
Jahmyr Gibbs is reportedly thought to have “arguably the best chance” to win OROY by several NFL scouts and executives.
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) September 4, 2023
Ben Johnson (Lions OC) said that they might use Gibbs “in some ways” that people don’t think of.
Some NFL scouts reportedly believe Gibbs “could go for”… pic.twitter.com/RVC7yRn55I
The Lions spent a lot of money to sign free-agent running back David Montgomery.
However, Gibbs is a terrific route runner that has the ability to stretch the field with his speed, and I could see Detroit using him as both a receiving back and a wide receiver this season.
so jahmyr gibbs will be the lions' primary deep ball threat. i see. pic.twitter.com/2htF7Zhqoe
— Denny Carter (@CDCarter13) September 5, 2023
We are just a couple of days away from getting our first look at how the Lions plan to use Gibbs in a regular-season game.
I’m intrigued by the recent speculation, and it’s enough for me to take both rookie running backs with the top two picks in my fantasy football league draft.
Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo on Jahmyr Gibbs: "Andy would've liked to have that toy!"
— LionsFanReport (@lionsfanreport) September 5, 2023
He said that they've watched Alabama film and that it's all "eyes" on number 26 when he's on the field.
He emphasized how the #Lions can force you into making mistakes if you're undisciplined. pic.twitter.com/jeS6SI2nND
In terms of the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year market, I tailed our guy Davis Sanchez when he recommended a play on Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers at 30-1 odds.
Flowers has since been cut to 16-1 to win the OROY at FanDuel.
Baltimore bolstered its wide receiver group in the offseason by signing Odell Beckham Jr. and drafting Zay Flowers. 👀
— TSN EDGE (@TSN_Edge) August 15, 2023
How many wins will Lamar Jackson lead the Ravens to this season? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/WqkHyuXRlh
While I’m not making it an official recommendation just yet, I also took a flyer on Gibbs to win the OROY at +900.
Who do you think will win the Offensive Rookie of the Year this season?
Hit me up at @DomPadulaEDGE on X and let me know your thoughts.
Jahmyr Gibbs #GIBBSZN
— Joe Orrico (@NoExpertFF) September 5, 2023
- 21 Years Old
- Early Declare
- Ideal Breakout Age (18)
- 12th Overall Pick to DET
- 99th Percentile Speed (4.36)
Compared to fellow Rookie Bijan Robinson…
Gibbs is a better receiver (17% career market share of rec yards) and faster.
Top Comp: CMC pic.twitter.com/9T3SGGiQNT
As for tonight’s fantasy football league draft, I’m taking Robinson and Gibbs 1-2 to pair with Allen, Andrews, and Olave.
I’m giving my league mates an early heads up that tonight’s draft begins with the third-overall pick.
I can’t wait.