By the Numbers: Leafs on cusp of playoffs breakthrough against Lightning

The Toronto Maple Leafs - and their fans - have been here before.

The Leafs have won three games in a best-of-seven series five times since the 2012-13 season. They haven't won a single of those series, and haven't advanced beyond the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs since 2003-04. 

Their string of 17 straight seasons without winning a playoff round ranks fifth-longest of all time. The Florida Panthers hold the record at 24 straight - a streak they broke in the 2020-21 season.

After they suffered a shocking 7-3 defeat on home in the series opener, the Leafs worked to exorcise their playoff demons with three straight victories, including two straight overtime wins in Tampa Bay, and now return to Toronto with a 3-1 series lead.

"It's cliché, but you really just try not to get too high or too low. I think we've just put ourselves in a good spot but the job's not done," captain John Tavares said. "The hardest one to get is the last one, so just continue to go about our business as we have all season."

The 'last one' has been the insurmountable task for the Leafs during their streak of playoff eliminations.

Since 2005-06, the Leafs overall record in the playoffs is 22-28. However, their record in possible clinching games (games where a Leafs win would win them the series) is 0-10, and their record when leading the series is a shocking 2-17. 

A win on Thursday would snap a second distinction for the Leafs: their streak of eight consecutive playoff rounds lost ranks tied for fifth all time. 

"We're up against a tough opponent, it's a tough challenge, so it's a great opportunity to rise to that and go out there and play well," said Tavares.

The Lightning eliminated Toronto in seven games last season, after the Maple Leafs took a 3-2 series lead. 

While there are no easy matchups in the playoffs, the Lightning bring a level of experience and success over the last 10 years that is unrivaled in the NHL, which makes closing them out all the more difficult. 

Tampa Bay has played in four Stanley Cup Finals since 2014-15, winning two of them (2019-20, 2020-21). They've suffered first-round exits in just two of their eight playoff appearances since 2013-14.  

Ryan O'Reilly, who was acquired from the St. Louis Blues in a trade just before the deadline and won a Stanley Cup with them in 2018-19, is playing with confidence with two overtime wins on the road in the series.

"I think, obviously, finding ways to win those two games, not playing our best, shows us that, 'Hey, we're a good team here, we could find a way,'" he said. "Over the course of a seven-game series, there are ones that you got to steal and that's what we did."

One notable weakness for Tampa Bay in this series has been goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, who played to a historic level in the previous four Stanley Cup playoffs runs for the Lightning.

The last time Toronto held a 3-1 series lead was the 2020-21 opening round against the Montreal Canadiens. Head coach Sheldon Keefe admitted the memories of that collapse still linger for a lot of members of the team.

"The core, of course, has remained the same and those guys have been through a lot together, myself included, so that's real and that's felt," he said. "I think there's growth inside of that. There's motivation and focus because of those things," said Keefe. 

Tavares was a member of the team that scored just six goals in losing three straight against the Canadiens in 2021. He added that the noise from the outside regarding the past is out of their control.

"It's in the past and it's done with," he said. "Obviously (there have been) results we haven't liked and I think they just add fuel to the fire."

The Leafs get their first chance to break through and earn their first series win in almost 20 years on Thursday.