Oilers No. 1, Sens the biggest riser in NHL Power Ranking

The Edmonton Oilers are back on top of our Power Rankings for the second time this season.

Climbing one spot from second to first, the Oilers won three of their four games last week to take the top spot on our list. While Edmonton is tied for 3rd in points percentage, it sits first in expected goal differential - a predictor of future success. The Oilers are getting the usual elite offensive production from Leon Draisaitl, who both rank top five in points this season. However, the team likely doesn’t get enough credit for how good it is defensively. Edmonton continues to climb in goals against average, ranking 7th overall. Regarding what it allows on net, the Oilers sit 2nd in expected goals against and inner slot shots against. Edmonton is tied with Vegas for top spot in the Pacific division and we expect them to take over first place before long.

Up three spots from sixth to third, the Winnipeg Jets. The Jets won two of three games last week and have the best record in the Western Conference. The Jets are the only team in the West to rank top five in goals and goals against per game. In addition to being the best defensive team in the league, thanks largely to the historic season Connor Hellebuyck is having in net, the Jets also boast the NHL’s best powerplay. Converting on 32.1 percent of its chances, the Jets have taken massive strides in this area as Winnipeg ranked 22nd in the league last season at 18.8 percent.

Our biggest riser among Canadian teams this week is the Ottawa Senators who are up eight spots from 17th to 9th. Ottawa is 5-1-2 in the New Year and sits 10th in expected goal differential. While their ranking on our list may seem high, given the team is 15th in points percentage, our model is putting a lot of faith in this team being a legitimate playoff team. Linus Ullmark, the Sens Vezina calibre starting goalie, is getting closer to returning to the line-up, having not played since December 22nd.

The Toronto Maple Leafs drop two spots from 13th to 15th following a 2-1-0 week. The Leafs, who have won two straight following a three-game losing streak, are three points up on the Panthers for top spot in the Atlantic division. The one area of concern our model has in ranking Toronto in the top 10 is that it sits 17th in expected goal differential. Offence is not coming as easily most nights for a Leafs team which has undergone a stylistic change with Craig Berube behind the bench. That said, we saw what Toronto is capable of in its comeback win against the Canadiens on Saturday and it won’t be a surprise to see the Leafs move up our rankings shortly.

Standing pat in 19th on our list, the Calgary Flames. Calgary is coming off a 2-2-0 week as it continues to battle for a playoff spot. Dustin Wolf continues to be a rock in net for the Flames, ranking 11th in goals against average, 6th in save percentage and 18th in goals saved above expected. He is the only qualified rookie goalie with a save percentage above .900.

The Flames don’t play again until hosting the Sabres on Thursday.

The Montreal Canadiens continue to rise on our list, up two spots from 22nd to 20th. The Habs are coming off a thrilling overtime win against the Rangers on Sunday night. Montreal has the best record in the NHL dating back to December 16th, at 12-3-1. The Canadiens have the best goal differential of any team in that span and are the highest-scoring team in the league as well. Montreal sits just one point behind Columbus for the final playoff spot in the East.

Lastly, the Vancouver Canucks are down three spots from 23rd to 26th this week. The Canucks lost two of three games last week and were outscored by eight goals in the process. While trade rumours surrounding J.T. Miller continue to run rampant, the Canucks are struggling to stay in the playoff fight. Vancouver is just one point back of the Flames for the final playoff spot in the West, however, Vancouver has been trending in the wrong direction, winning just three of its last ten games. It has been a challenge offensively for the Canucks this season, who sit 22nd in goals per game and 27th in expected goals. This is a big week on and off the ice for the Canucks, who host the Sabres Tuesday, are in Edmonton Thursday then head back home to face the NHL’s top team, the Washington Capitals, Saturday night.

Power Ranking - January 20