Intelligent Hockey: Predators well-positioned to exploit Oilers’ blueliners
Published
Although the sample size remains small in the first week of November, the body of work so far offers clues. However, because the odds are still being impacted by preseason perceptions rather than by the numbers and what we see on the ice, there is value to be found.
Nashville Predators at Edmonton Oilers
Saturday, November 4 – 3 PM ET
The San Jose Sharks, who are making a strong case for being demoted to the AHL, are the only team with fewer points than the Edmonton Oilers. We are in November! The primary culprit is no mystery. Goaltending is sinking the Oilers’ Stanley Cup chances.
Only Philadelphia Flyers goaltender Samuel Ersson has a worse Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) than Oilers goaltender Stuart Skinner. In Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA), Skinner is also second to last. Edmonton’s other goaltender, Jack Campbell, hasn’t been awesome either, as his GSAx is ninth worst among goaltenders with three or more games played.
But as bad as Edmonton’s goaltending has been, other issues linger. The Dallas Stars torched Edmonton in transition on Thursday night, catching the Oilers beneath the puck and exposing lacklustre transition defence. Connor McDavid, who suffered an injury against Winnipeg but only missed two games, looked the most like himself on the power play, but at 5-on-5, McDavid wasn’t exerting his will like usual, especially in the first two frames. McDavid would finish the game with zero high-danger chances and the second-lowest expected goals of any forward on the team at 5-on-5.
Nashville will make for an interesting foil on Saturday afternoon. Of the Oilers‘ two wins this season, one was against Nashville, and Edmonton thrashed them 6-1. But the Predators may be better than their 4-6 record indicates. They rank in the top four in the NHL in expected goals and high-danger chances percentage at 5-on-5, their power play is starting to heat up (they have scored two power-play goals in four of their last six games), and goaltender Juuse Saros has been better in his last five games, after a poor start to the season.
Against the Stars, the Oilers wanted to play a forecheck and cycle game and dominate territorial time. For large swaths, they achieved this, but momentary lapses (hello bad Cody Ceci pinch) proved fatal. When McDavid and Leon Draisaitl play together, they open up cross-seam passes to each other and Draisaitl sets picks for McDavid to roll off of. The best Nashville can do to thwart that is to try to keep those two as far to the perimeter as possible and keep Saros’s line of vision clear. If any team can achieve this, it is the Predators, since they have the best expected goals against per hour in the league.
Facing Nashville Thursday night, the Seattle Kraken did an excellent job creating traffic and taking away Saros’s sightline. If the Oilers’ defencemen can get shots through and create tips in the slot, that also could prove problematic for Nashville.
The Oilers’ defensive numbers are above average, but there are ways that the Predators are well-positioned to exploit Edmonton’s blueliners. This season, the Predators have exhibited a greater focus on flying the zone and stretching the ice, and they have provided a more layered attack on the rush. If the Oilers’ pinching defencemen and forwards are not in sync, or if they turn over the puck and open themselves up to the counterattack, Nashville has personnel who can execute for a good scoring chance. I also think the Predators, who rotate well in the offensive zone and utilize backdoor cuts on the weak side to great effect, could present problems for the Oilers’ defence by hemming it in.
The Predators could win this game outright. But getting them on the puck line spares the bettor the very possible scenario of an excruciating overtime or shootout loss.
Pick: Predators Puck line (+1.5) -156
Los Angeles Kings at Philadelphia Flyers
Saturday, November 4 – 7:30 PM ET
One of the best feelings is having a bet that is nearly certain of hitting well before the conclusion of the game. This contest holds that possibility. The Kings’ advanced stats are fantastic. They rank third in the NHL in goals per game and are generate scoring throughout their lineup. They also are infuriating to play against. They use the 1-3-1 configuration in the neutral zone and force teams to chip and chase against them. For L. A.’s opponents, all space on the ice is earned.
It was an inspiring start to the season for Philadelphia. The Flyers roared out to a 3-1 record. Their underlying numbers were better than expected, and veterans like Sean Couturier and Cam Atkinson, who were absent last year, immediately buoyed the team. Through four games, goaltender Carter Hart posted a very good GSAx. Unfortunately, the Flyers have won just one game since, and it seems like things are about to take an even darker turn.
Hart is injured and so is Couturier, who was doing exemplary work as a shutdown centre. With Hart’s backup, Ersson, as the NHL’s worst goaltender so far, the Flyers’ team defence is now a major vulnerability.
Los Angeles has a variety of ways to exercise maximum pressure on the Flyers. The Kings excel on the forecheck and cycle, forcing teams to battle them along the boards and then try to box them out when they stack their players in the slot for tips. The Kings are a shot-volume team, understanding that shots breed chaos and sow confusion in defensive coverage. And when the opposing team does retrieve the puck after a shot, the Kings’ hyper-aggressive defencemen will step up and disrupt the attempted zone exit.
It is a big priority for the Flyers to have their defencemen utilize the stretch pass more and jump into the rush. But the Kings do a nice job layering their defence and should those passes get broken up in the neutral zone, they have the speed to bite teams with their counterattack.
At some point, the Kings will need to address their goaltending because it’s unlikely that Cam Talbot is a viable option for a deep playoff run. But for Saturday, Talbot will suffice.
Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders
Saturday, November 4 – 7:30 PM ET
Should the New York Islanders be home underdogs against the Carolina Hurricanes? Consider: Since the Bo Horvat trade, the Islanders have a better regular-season points percentage than the Hurricanes. The first-round matchup last playoffs between these two teams was highly competitive, with the Hurricanes edging out New York in six games and winning both overtime contests.
Losing defenceman Adam Pelech hurts New York, but the Islanders have unearthed a shutdown defensive pairing in Ryan Pulock and Alexander Romanov, who have allowed just one goal this season in 130 minutes at 5-on-5. With the Islanders, it won’t always be pretty – in Periods 1 and 2, the Washington Capitals notched 16 high-danger chances to the Islanders’ three on Thursday night – but New York has high-end talent, secondary scoring, and a stingy team defence.
Betting against the Hurricanes is unpleasant. They are masters of the dump-in, and use it to pin teams in their own end and dominate offensive zone time. When adversaries force the Hurricanes to defend, they do so diligently; they will surely be among the best in the NHL at defending against the cycle and forecheck this season.
But in the playoffs, we saw how the Islanders strove to break down the Hurricanes’ defence. The Hurricanes play a man-on-man system in all three zones, so the Islanders will be looking to short-circuit them by spreading them out and using picks that enable New York to get to the middle of the ice. The game-winning goal by New York Rangers forward Will Cuylle on Thursday night was a demonstration of the Hurricanes being a step slow to recover to protect the slot, which proved costly.
Additionally, the Hurricanes are a one-touch-and-exit breakout team. It is critical that the Islanders’ defencemen step up and try to stymie that quick zone exit, much like the Florida Panthers did against the Hurricanes in the playoffs last season.
The Islanders took an early 2-0 lead against the Capitals on Thursday night, but the score belies an ugly start to the game that was marked by a spate of turnovers in the Islanders’ own zone. It is a little frightening to think of the Hurricanes’ forecheck creating mayhem against New York, and the most obvious antidote is the Islanders keeping the puck in the offensive zone as much as possible.
It has been an unremarkable start for goaltender Ilya Sorokin, but he was unbelievable last season, giving New York an opportunity to win every time he was in goal. With Semyon Varlamov having played against Washington, Sorokin is likely to get the nod, giving New York a possible goaltending advantage. The Islanders are perennially formidable at home and the advanced stats reflect that this season. The Hurricanes are 3-5 on the road. I’ll take the home dog.