Schaefer a unanimous No. 1 in McKenzie's Mid-season Draft Ranking

No play; no problem.

Even though Matthew Schaefer broke his collarbone while playing for Canada at the World Junior Championship - undergoing surgery to repair it on Dec. 30 - and won’t play another game until April, if at all this season, he cruised to the No. 1 spot in TSN’s Mid-Season 2025 NHL Draft Rankings.

It wasn’t particularly close either.

The Erie Otter defenceman was a unanimous No. 1 selection in TSN’s survey of 10 NHL club team scouts. The survey was conducted between Jan. 7-14  - after the WJC but just prior to the Ontario Hockey League Top Prospects and USA Hockey Top Prospects Games on Jan. 15 and 16, respectively.

“As far as I’m concerned,” one NHL head scout said, “[Schaefer] is No. 1 and he’s staying there - even if he never plays another game this season.”

It was a common refrain.

Not only did Schaefer garner all 10 first-place votes, seven of the 10 scouts declared there is a “substantial” gap between the Stoney Creek, Ont., native and the rest of the 2025 draft class. Two others described the gap as “moderate,” but one said it was only “minuscule.”

“I suppose it’s possible [Schaefer] not playing and those other guys playing could close the gap,” another scout said. “And, who knows? Maybe on draft day (reportedly June 27 in Los Angeles) someone other than Schaefer will go No. 1, but I don’t think so. He’s in a class all by himself.”

Boston College freshman centre James Hagens, who was No. 1 on TSN’s pre-season list in September, is No. 2 on the mid-season rankings. Saginaw Spirit centre Michael Misa, who was No. 7 in September, is No. 3, followed by Brampton Steelheads right winger Porter Martone (No. 4 in September) at No. 4 and Swedish centre Anton Frondell (3) at No. 5.

“I obviously can’t speak for other [NHL] teams,” added a third scout, “but the only race I see now is for No. 2.”

The dissenting view goes to the scout who described the gap between Schaefer and the rest of the field as extremely narrow.

“With those two centres [Hagens and Misa] right behind him there, and with Schaefer not playing, it still could be a close call [on draft day] for someone,” the scout said.

But as long as there are no lingering issues with Schaefer’s surgically repaired collarbone, the conventional wisdom is that it will be really difficult for an NHL team picking first overall to go by a dynamic top-pair defenceman who could very well have every attribute you look for in a true No. 1 blueliner.

Schaefer is a marvelous skater who can move the puck up the ice quickly with his feet or his hands. His offensive instincts are top notch. He can make plays; he can score goals. He’s totally fearless — the broken collarbone happened while driving hard to the net — and he’s constantly looking to be in attack mode. He can run a power play; he can walk the blueline and get shots through from the point, and even if he’s caught deep in the offensive zone on offensive forays, he can swiftly race back into defensive position

Without the puck, he can defend physically or cerebrally. He has a great stick; his gap control is excellent. He’s a premier penalty killer and his game is suited to all situations in all zones.

Until he was injured in the second game of the WJC, against Latvia, he was Canada’s best and most noticeable player.

No one wants to saddle him with the burden of unrealistic expectations, but when the  NHL scouts were asked to identify NHL players with similar playing styles, not to be confused with anyone saying he will be a Hall of Famer or Norris Trophy winner, the comparables were quite favourable.

Scott Niedermayer and Miro Heiskanen were mentioned on more than one occasion.

“Think a left-shot Cale Makar,” added another.

Others included Luke Hughes, Rasmus Dahlin, Shea Theodore and Zach Werenski.

Schaefer is still only 17 years old. He doesn’t turn 18 until Sept. 5, and just misses being eligible for the 2026 NHL draft by 10 days.

Schaefer’s recovery time from his surgery was estimated to be approximately three months. If all were to go well on that timeline, the defenceman would hypothetically be able to return by the end of March or early April.

But the OHL regular season ends on March 23. Erie would probably have to get out of the first round of the playoffs to entertain any notion of a possible return this season for Schaefer, although one could reasonably question the wisdom of inserting Schaefer back into the heat of the OHL playoffs coming off a three-month absence.

Especially given his status as the clear No. 1 prospect in this draft.

Three of the next four prospects rated after Schaefer on the TSN mid-season list are centres.

At No. 2, Boston College freshman pivot Hagens played well for Team USA en route to a gold-medal performance at the WJC. He got off to a bit of a slow start at BC this season.

Hagens is not quite 6 feet tall (5-foot-10 1/2, 177 pounds), which is probably why the scouts are projecting him more as a second-line centre than a first liner in the NHL. But he’s a smart and skilled player, probably a better playmaker than goal scorer, but he certainly has the ability to finish.

Seven of our 10-scout panel slotted Hagens at No. 2.

Saginaw centre Misa, who has 37 goals in 38 games this season, vaulted up from No. 7 in the pre-season to No. 3 now. One scout ranked Misa second overall; five others had him at No. 3.

“He’s a centre with nice size, high-end skill and elite scoring ability,” said the scout who ranked Misa No. 2.

Some scouts wonder if he’ll be a better NHL winger than centre, but he’s expected to make his mark offensively in either spot.

Brampton 6-foot-2 3/4, 208-pound winger Martone remains in the No. 4 slot, where he was in September. He didn’t play particularly well for Canada at the WJC — he was not alone on that front — but draft-eligible players are rarely penalized for failing to make an impact at the WJC.

His blend of size and belligerence, to go along with his shooting ability and nose for the net, is highly coveted. Two scouts ranked him second overall behind only Schaefer; three others had him at No. 3 and the rest at No. 4.

“I really like Martone’s ability to get inside,” said one of the scouts who ranked him at No. 2. “Five-on-five goals are hard to come by and he does some of his best work in the hard areas.”

Martone’s skating is more good than great, but his other attributes keep him solidly in the top four mix, with lots of stylistic comparisons to Ryan Smith and Corey Perry.

The top five is rounded out by Frondell, the Swedish centre who excelled at the World Junior A Challenge tourney in December.

“He’s a strong, detailed-oriented, 200-foot centre,” said a scout who ranked him third overall.

Frondell probably played better last season than he did this season. He had to deal with some early season injuries that slowed him out of the gate, but he’s been ramping it up since the Jr. A Challenge.

The balance of TSN’s mid-season Top 10 is as follows:

No. 6: Caleb Desnoyers. The Moncton Wildcat is viewed as perhaps the most complete two-way centre in the draft who projects in the NHL as a second-line centre or, worst case scenario, an elite third-line shutdown centre.

“Think a Phil Danault-style player,” said one scout.

Desnoyers was ranked as high as No. 5 by one scout and no lower than No. 10. He’s viewed as a safe and secure pick. If you believe his offence will pop at the pro level, he’s a top five consideration.

No. 7: Roger McQueen. The 6-foot-5 Brandon Wheat King centre has all the physical tools — size, strength, skating and skill — to be a top-two-line centre in the NHL, but there’s a big injury cloud hanging over his head.

McQueen hasn’t played since Oct. 11, with what has been reported as a lower-body injury. Some scouts believe it’s a lower-back ailment. It has been suggested he won’t be back in the lineup until February.

The scouts are mostly ranking him now as if he’s a healthy player, which they acknowledge he most certainly is not. So, his No. 7 ranking, down just one spot from the pre-season, has a gigantic asterisk beside it.

“We have at him at five right now,” said one scout, “but it’s really just a placeholder until we get some clarity on his health.”

“If the draft were being held tomorrow, he would be a ‘no draft’ for us,” said another scout who also ranked him fifth overall on his talent and potential, when healthy. “Without a lot more information and seeing all medical reports, we’re just not comfortable taking that chance.”

No. 8: Victor Eklund. The younger brother of San Jose young gun William Eklund, Victor is a sub-six-foot winger who plays a speedy, high-energy two-way game with a nice skill level. He projects as a top nine NHL forward who could elevate to top six.

No. 9: Jake O’Brien. The Brantford Bulldogs 6-foot-2 centre has elite hockey sense, high-end playmaking ability and is a wizard on the half wall on the power play. He has moved up from No. 14 on the pre-season list. The scouts ranked him as high as sixth and as low as 17th.

No. 10: Jackson Smith. The 6-foot- Tri City American defenceman is raw but athletic. He’s an elite skater with an NHL frame and can play with some bite but it’s his physical tools and two-way approach that is attractive. Ultimately, though it’s his blend of speed, size and strength that has him in the top 10.

Scouts ranked him as high as No. 8 and as low as No. 19.

Like pretty much every year, the scouts are enamored of the 2025 crop of talent available in the top 10. Actually, make that the top 15. Beyond that, though, the consensus seems to be that the class of 2025 lacks depth of talent.

“As good as the top guys are this year,” one scout said, “I’d be surprised if anyone from this draft plays in the NHL next season.”

“Nos. 1 to 8 are quite strong, but there’s a bit of a drop off after eight and then again a bigger drop off between 15 and 20,” said another scout.

One scout went so far as to say a lot of the players who will be drafted in the bottom half of the first round would in prior years be better suited to being second-round picks.

“It’s all relative of course,” the scout said, “but I’d say the second rounders this year would be third rounders in previous years where there was greater depth.”

A few other notes from TSN’s Mid-Season rankings:

- The top-rated Russian is forward Ivan Ryabkin, who slots in at No. 19 after starting the season at No. 5. In fact, Ryabkin is the only Russian in TSN’s Top 32.

When the season began, it was anticipated Ryabkin could or would follow in the footsteps of Matvei Michkov (seventh overall to Philadelphia in 2023) and Ivan Demidov (fifth overall to Montreal in 2024) as a blue-chip Russian top-10 talent.

But Ryabkin’s season got off to an inauspicious beginning and he terminated his contract with Dynamo Moscow to join the Muskegon Lumberjacks of the USHL. He scored three goals in his first four games before getting a three-game suspension for slew-footing. He’s back playing now.

Scouts are still hopeful he’ll re-establish his game and move back up the ladder into Top 10 contention, but if he fails to get traction in the USHL, he could slip and slide some more.

Eight of the 10 scouts on the TSN panel still ranked him as a first rounder, as high as 11th overall, but there was a wide variance amongst them, including the two scouts who had him well into the second round.

- One goaltender, Prince George Cougar Joshua Ravensbergen, landed in TSN’s Top 32 at No. 28.

Eight of 10 scouts surveyed had him in their Top 32 and all eight said he was their No. 1 goaltending prospect in this draft. Ravensbergen is 6-foot-5. He’s big and athletic, and while some scouts say he’s not performed as well this season as he did in his rookie WHL season when he seemed to come out of nowhere, he’s still viewed as having gigantic potential.

There are other goalies who are drawing significant attention, even though they didn’t climb into the Top 32.

Brampton Steelhead Jack Ivankovic is the consensus No., 2 netminder. He’s ranked at No. 48. Ivankovic has been phenomenal in the OHL this season but suffers from a scouting malady that isn’t easy to overcome, at least in terms of rankings. That is, he’s listed as 5-foot-11.

No scout rated Ivankovic higher than No. 32 but most pegged him as a solid second-round prospect, which is a testament to his talent because a lot of 5-foot-11 goalies don’t get the time of day from NHL scouts.

London Knight Alexei Medvedev, a Russian, is the next goalie in our Top 80, landing at No. 61. He’s followed by two more Russians who play in Russia — Semyon Frolov at No. 64 and Pyotr Andreyanov at 71.

It’s not a banner year for Russian skaters but it’s obviously a deep year for Russian stoppers.

- One of the most intriguing prospects in this year’s draft is Oshawa General 6-foot-5 defenceman Simon Wang.

He checks in at No. 31, with one scout ranking him as high as No. 18 and one not ranking him at all in the top 64.

Wang is Chinese, born in Beijing in 2007 and raised there until he left as a teenager in 2020 to pursue his dream of playing hockey in the NHL.

Wang’s father is an official in the Chinese government. His mother, Willa, is heavily involved in sport and, in fact, owned and operated five hockey arenas in China. That’s where Simon, or Haoxi (pronounced How-she) as he’s known at home, first learned to skate and train. There were tournaments that he played in there but he didn’t really play any organized hockey, as such, until he arrived in Canada for his major bantam (U-15) season.

He initially lived in residence at St. Andrew’s College in Aurora, Ont. Willa has since come to Canada to be with him and has been instrumental in Simon’s hockey development and path.

Simon’s goal was to go to school and play NCAA hockey and he got a commitment from Boston University. He was also drafted by the OHL Generals in the fifth round of the 2023 OHL draft. Simon wanted to go to BU because his older brother received a graduate degree from Boston University.

After playing his minor midget (U-16) and OHL draft year season for the North York Rangers of the GTHL, Simon was deciding where to play in the intervening two or three years before attending BU.

That was solved when his mother purchased the Brantford 99ers Ontario Junior Hockey League franchise and he played there last season. Willa moved the franchise from Brantford to King, Ont., in 2024, and Simon started this season with the OJHL’s King Rebellion.

When the NCAA eligibility rules changed this season to allow college players to play major junior hockey, Simon joined the OHL Generals in January and now scouts are trying to get a handle on a 6-foot-5 defenceman who is a terrific skater but is a relative neophyte compared to his peers.

Wang could play at BU next season or could choose to stay another year in Oshawa. It’s TBD.

Not surprisingly, the scouting opinions on him are all over the map.

As a Chinese born and bred athlete, if Simon is to make it to the NHL it’s most certainly going to create a seismic event back in China, where some local media have taken to showing Oshawa General highlights and reporting news stories on Simon’s exploits.

In any case, it will be fascinating to see it all play out.

McKenzie's Mid-season Draft Ranking