Morning Coffee: A closer look at FanDuel’s Conn Smythe Trophy odds

Oilers Nation was forced to wait an entire year for their Stanley Cup Finals rematch.

What’s six more days to prepare for hockey’s grand finale?

The city of Edmonton is absolutely buzzing about their club’s shot at redemption against the Florida Panthers.

If you haven’t noticed, this year already feels a lot different than last.

Unlike a year ago, the Edmonton Oilers will have the home-ice advantage and will enter the Stanley Cup Finals as the favourite to win it all at FanDuel.

In 2024, the Oilers were +106 to win the Stanley Cup at FanDuel entering Game 1 in Florida.

This time around, the Oil are -122 to win the Stanley Cup at FanDuel entering Game 1 in Edmonton.

Meanwhile, the road to the Stanley Cup Finals was also a little shorter after the Oilers beat both the Vegas Golden Knights and the Dallas Stars in five games.

In fact, after stumbling out of the gates in the first two games against the Los Angeles Kings in the first round, Edmonton has won 12 of 14 games, securing all but three of those victories by two goals or more.

Except for the season-ending injury suffered by Zach Hyman in the Western Conference Finals, whose importance should not be understated, nearly everything has worked out in favour of the Oilers except for one more major obstacle.

The Panthers are back in the Stanley Cup Finals.

And according to their head coach Paul Maurice, this is the best team he’s ever coached, and “it’s not really that close”.

After dominating three of the best Western Conference teams, Edmonton will brace for the NHL’s best in the Stanley Cup Finals.

Oilers Nation is hoping this year’s outcome is different.

Then again, they wouldn’t mind if one specific player found a way to repeat in this year’s Stanley Cup Finals.

This is the Morning Coffee for Monday June 2nd, 2025.

A Closer Look At FanDuel’s Conn Smythe Trophy Odds

Connor McDavid to win the Conn Smythe Trophy opened at +1700 at FanDuel.

A couple of months later, McDavid is now even-money to win the award as the obvious favourite.

We don’t have to recap how we got to this point, but maybe it’s worth a reminder.

McDavid leads all skaters in points (26), assists (20), primary assists (14), shots on goal (59), on-ice expected goal differential (14.1), max skating speed (38.5 KPH), and total skating distance (116.75 KM) this postseason.

The Oilers captain has 46 career multi-point games in the Stanley Cup Playoffs compared to 44 games with one point or fewer.

The fact that he logged key minutes on the penalty kill to help slow down the Stars powerplay in the Western Conference Finals makes his numbers more impressive. 

Oh, and here’s the full list of players with at least three career 20-assist postseasons: McDavid, Wayne Gretzky.

McDavid also leads the Oilers in expected goals (7.2) and ranks third on the club behind only Leon Draisaitl and Corey Perry with six goals scored.

Draisaitl, Perry, Evan Bouchard, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins have all played critical roles helping Edmonton get back to the Stanley Cup Finals.

The same goes for Stuart Skinner, who has allowed more than one goal only once in his previous seven starts.

Still, none of the players listed above is shorter than +800 to win the Conn Smythe Trophy at FanDuel. 

Draisaitl is the second choice to win the award among Oilers skaters at +800.

Skinner is the third choice for Edmonton and a distant seventh choice overall at +4900.

As for the Panthers, the top choice seems obvious heading into the Stanley Cup Finals.

Sergei Bobrovsky has posted a sparkling 2.11 goals against average this postseason – second in the NHL among starting goalies behind only Frederik Andersen.

His 12 wins are twice as many as Skinner, who split the starts with Calvin Pickard in Edmonton’s 12 victories.

Bobrovsky is the second choice to win the Conn Smythe Trophy behind McDavid at +270.

Aleksander Barkov, who leads Florida with 17 points and played a crucial role lining up opposite McDavid in last year’s Stanley Cup Finals, is the third choice at +600.

Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Bennett are both +2600.

A year ago, McDavid was award the Conn Smythe Trophy even though the Panthers won the Stanley Cup.

What are the odds that a player wins the Conn Smythe Trophy but not the Stanley Cup?

FanDuel priced that scenario at +2000.

That number represents just a 4.8 per cent implied probability.

Of course, in a nightmare scenario for Oilers Nation in which the Panthers repeat, some combination of Bobrovsky, Barkov, and others will need to find a way to slow McDavid down after the Golden Knights and Stars both failed in that department.

Then there’s the dream scenario in which McDavid leads Edmonton to a Stanley Cup win to clinch his first ring and his second Conn Smythe Trophy.

Only two more sleeps until Game 1.