Morning Coffee: Will Maple Leafs avoid elimination in Game 5?
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For the fifth time in franchise history and the second time in as many years, the Carolina Hurricanes are headed to the Eastern Conference Finals.
The Hurricanes advanced with a 3-2 overtime win over the New Jersey Devils as a -130 money line favourite in Game 5 Thursday night.
Carolina is now the Stanley Cup favourite, shifting from +240 to +200 odds to win it all at FanDuel overnight.
The Hurricanes await the winner of the other Eastern Conference second-round series between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers.
After avoiding the series sweep on Wednesday night, Toronto is -178 to win Game 5 tonight on home ice.
That number translates to a 64 per cent implied win probability.
Will the Maple Leafs avoid elimination tonight and send the series back to Florida for a Game 6?
If they can find a way to win tonight, then the outlook for the series will look a lot different than it did 48 hours ago.
This is the Morning Coffee for Friday, May 12, 2023.
Maple Leafs look to avoid elimination in Game 5
Will the Maple Leafs win Game 5 as a favourite tonight?
The lack of production from the core forwards for the Maple Leafs was a popular point of discussion after they fell behind 3-0 in the series.
Mitch Marner responded with his 14th-career multi-point playoff game, recording a goal and an assist in a 2-1 win in Game 4.
William Nylander also got on the board with his first goal of the series and third of the playoffs.
As the series shifts back to Toronto, who will step up for the Maple Leafs in Game 5?
Auston Matthews registered an assist in each of the first two games of the series, but he’s still looking for his first goal of the series.
Matthews is -110 to score in Game 5 at FanDuel.
A lot of Maple Leafs’ fans that I’ve talked to still aren’t over what they saw from Matthews in Game 3.
Meanwhile, captain John Tavares has registered 17 shots on goal through four games, but he’s still looking for his first point in the series.
Tavares is +145 to score and -205 to record a point tonight. The over/under for the Tavares shots on goal prop is set at 3.5 at FanDuel once again.
The Maple Leafs will also need another strong performance from rookie goaltender Joseph Woll, who stopped 24 of the 25 shots he faced in the Game 4 win.
Believe it or not, Woll to win the Conn Smythe Trophy has been a popular wager among Ontario bettors at FanDuel in the hours since he secured his first career playoff win.
According to the traders at FanDuel, in the 24 hours after Toronto’s Game 4 win, 48 per cent of all bets on the Conn Smythe winner market were on Woll.
Now the 24-year-old needs to help the Maple Leafs avoid elimination again tonight on home ice against an opponent that leads the NHL with five road wins in these playoffs.
Toronto is a heavy favourite to win tonight at -178.
While the expectations are higher for the Maple Leafs on home ice, it’s important to keep in mind that the home/road splits for these two teams in particular tell a different story than some might expect.
Toronto is 1-4 straight up on home ice in these playoffs.
Florida is 5-1 straight up on the road and can establish a franchise record for the most road wins in a single postseason with a win tonight.
For those wondering, the Panthers are +146 to win tonight at FanDuel. A $10 bet on Florida to win would pay $14.60.
A FanDuel Best Bet for Friday night
While the Hurricanes took care of business as a -130 favourite last night to cash our FanDuel Best Bet for the Stanley Cup Playoffs, it was disappointment in the NBA as Kevin Durant and Devin Booker failed to reach 25 points in a 125-100 loss as the Denver Nuggets eliminated the Phoenix Suns.
Now we turn the page to Friday night, with a pair of playoff games in the NHL and NBA to consider.
If you read this column or you follow me on Twitter, then you know that I’ve been on the Goal In The First 10 Minutes bet throughout the series between the Edmonton Oilers and Vegas Golden Knights.
That bet has cashed in all four games and seven straight Oilers’ games dating back to Game 5 of their first round series against the Los Angeles Kings.
However, the “GIFT” is up to -180 for tonight’s game, so there’s no way I can recommend it as a FanDuel Best Bet.
Instead, I’ll stick with a formula that has worked out very well for me in recent weeks with an NBA Same Game Parlay to build up my bankroll.
I’ll take Jimmy Butler 25+ points and the Miami Heat to win at -125 at FanDuel.
Butler failed to reach 25+ points for the first time in these playoffs in the Game 5 loss to the New York Knicks.
Butler finished with 19 points, nine assists and seven rebounds, and while some pointed towards fatigue and nagging injuries as possible reasons for him not being more aggressive, I think he will be just fine as the series shifts back to Miami for Game 6 tonight.
If you’re looking for a better number, you can consider adding Kyle Lowry 4+ assists in order to push the Same Game Parlay to +143.
Lowry has recorded 4+ assists in all five games in the series.
In terms of a FanDuel Best Bet, I’ll stick with an SGP that features Butler 25+ points and a Heat win at -125 at FanDuel.