The Winnipeg Jets are the best team in hockey, rank first in our Power Rankings and are officially off to the best start to a season in NHL history. This past week, the Jets became the first team to win 14 of their first 15 games of the season.
The Jets lead the league in goals for, goals against, and powerplay percentage. Their 13th-ranked penalty kill comically seems like a potential weakness only in relation to their league-best ranks everywhere else. The Jets went a perfect 3-0-0 last week, outscoring Utah, Colorado, and Dallas by a combined 8-1.
Offensively, the Jets are getting it done by committee. Winnipeg does not have a player in the top ten in league scoring but has eleven players with double-digit points. Defensively, the Jets are getting rock-solid goaltending from Connor Hellebuyck while boasting the second-best expected goals against in the NHL. There is no weakness.
Through the first month of the NHL season, the Toronto Maple Leafs certainly had an identifiable weakness - the powerplay. The Leafs scored three powerplay goals in their first twelve games. Well, thanks to a suddenly red-hot powerplay, Toronto has jumped from 14th to 9th in our rankings. The Leafs have scored eight times with the man advantage in their last four games and have done so with Auston Matthews missing the past three games. Anthony Stolarz continues to provide solid goaltending, ranking first in the NHL in quality starts - starts in which a goalie finishes the game with a positive goals saved above expected, with nine.
Consistency has not been a strength of the Leafs' cross-province rivals, the Ottawa Senators who are up one spot from 12th to 11th. The Sens dropped a pair of games last week to the Sabres and Islanders before picking up an overtime win against the Bruins, however, our model is still bullish on the Senators despite their ranking 17th in points percentage. Ottawa sits 13th in goal differential and 15th in expected goal differential. Linus Ullmark has not played at the level he is capable of to start the season. We’ll see if the Senators can string a few wins together, starting with a date with the Leafs on Tuesday in Toronto.
Down one spot from 11th to 12th, the Edmonton Oilers, who finished last week with a 1-2-0 record. Regression is slowly taking place offensively for an Oilers team which finished October ranked 29th in goals per game, despite ranking top five in expected goals. Edmonton sits tenth in goals per game in November following a 7-3 win over the Vancouver Canucks. Overall, the Oilers are fourth in expected goal differential while ranking 20th in actual goal differential. Our model believes this team will get on a roll, much like it did around this time last season. That said, goaltending continues to be an area to watch as the Oilers rank 26th in goals saved above expected and 29th in team save percentage.
Vancouver fans will likely feel disrespected by their Canucks sitting 14th on our list as their team sits 9th in points percentage. However, the Canucks rank 15th in goal differential and 18th in expected goal differential. Vancouver has started to pick things up offensively in recent games, however, the team remains below average defensively in terms of process and results. That said, Vancouver has a chance to move up on our list and more importantly in the standings with a less than daunting upcoming slate of games. The Canucks host the Flames, Islanders, Blackhawks and Predators before closing out their six-game homestead against the New York Rangers.
Speaking of the Flames, Calgary is up three spots from 21st to 18th on our list. The Flames picked up four of a possible six points on their recent road trip with all three games requiring extra time. Calgary rallied from deficits in all three games and now leads the league in third-period comeback wins. As impressive as their resilience has been, battling back late in games is not a sustainable method for success. Calgary ranks 13th in points percentage and 21st in expected goals percentage. Our model is skeptical the Flames can continue at their current pace.
Lastly, the last place Montreal Canadiens who sit 32nd on our list for the second straight week. The Habs have lost six-straight games are the only team in the NHL allowing an average of more than four goals per game. The Canadiens rank bottom-three in the league in slot shots against, cycle chances against and expected goals against. Until Montreal can find a way to limit the dangerous chances it allows, it will have a tough time outscoring its defensive issues.
NHL Power Rankings
| RK | Team | Last Week | Record | Avg. Goal Diff | xGoal Diff | PT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Winnipeg Jets | 2 | 14-1 | 2.4 | 0.66 | 0.933 |
| 2 | Carolina Hurricanes | 1 | 10-3 | 1.54 | 1.02 | 0.769 |
| 3 | Washington Capitals | 5 | 10-4 | 1.36 | 0.85 | 0.714 |
| 4 | Minnesota Wild | 3 | 10-2-3 | 1 | 0.55 | 0.767 |
| 5 | Florida Panthers | 7 | 11-3-1 | 0.73 | -0.08 | 0.767 |
| 6 | Vegas Golden Knights | 6 | 9-3-2 | 1.29 | 0.28 | 0.714 |
| 7 | New Jersey Devils | 9 | 10-6-2 | 0.72 | 0.72 | 0.611 |
| 8 | New York Rangers | 4 | 9-3-1 | 1.46 | 0.62 | 0.731 |
| 9 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 14 | 9-5-2 | 0.56 | 0.4 | 0.625 |
| 10 | Los Angeles Kings | 10 | 9-4-3 | 0.5 | 0.66 | 0.656 |
| 11 | Ottawa Senators | 12 | 7-7 | 0.29 | 0.05 | 0.5 |
| 12 | Edmonton Oilers | 11 | 7-7-1 | -0.53 | 0.73 | 0.5 |
| 13 | Dallas Stars | 8 | 8-5 | 0.46 | 0.48 | 0.615 |
| 14 | Vancouver Canucks | 15 | 7-3-3 | 0 | -0.1 | 0.654 |
| 15 | Buffalo Sabres | 17 | 7-7-1 | 0.2 | 0.29 | 0.5 |
| 16 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 13 | 7-6-1 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.536 |
| 17 | Colorado Avalanche | 19 | 7-8 | -0.47 | 0.74 | 0.467 |
| 18 | Calgary Flames | 21 | 7-5-3 | -0.27 | -0.23 | 0.567 |
| 19 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 16 | 5-7-2 | -0.36 | -0.01 | 0.429 |
| 20 | New York Islanders | 26 | 6-6-3 | -0.6 | -0.21 | 0.5 |
| 21 | Boston Bruins | 22 | 7-7-2 | -0.75 | -0.14 | 0.5 |
| 22 | Utah Hockey Club | 20 | 6-6-3 | -0.67 | -0.24 | 0.5 |
| 23 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 29 | 6-8-2 | -0.81 | -0.37 | 0.438 |
| 24 | Chicago Blackhawks | 18 | 6-9-1 | -0.56 | -0.41 | 0.406 |
| 25 | Seattle Kraken | 27 | 6-8-1 | -0.33 | -0.57 | 0.433 |
| 26 | Detroit Red Wings | 25 | 6-7-1 | -0.64 | -0.48 | 0.464 |
| 27 | Philadelphia Flyers | 30 | 5-8-2 | -1.07 | -0.47 | 0.4 |
| 28 | St. Louis Blues | 23 | 7-8 | -0.93 | -0.38 | 0.467 |
| 29 | San Jose Sharks | 31 | 5-9-2 | -1.12 | -1.43 | 0.375 |
| 30 | Anaheim Ducks | 28 | 5-7-2 | -0.86 | -1.21 | 0.429 |
| 31 | Nashville Predators | 24 | 5-9-1 | -0.87 | -0.69 | 0.367 |
| 32 | Montreal Canadiens | 32 | 4-9-2 | -1.47 | -1.07 | 0.333 |
