Leafs check the box as 'elite' in latest Power Ranking

Are the Toronto Maple Leafs for real? Our statistical model certainly thinks so.

Riding a seven-game winning streak, the Toronto Maple Leafs jump from eighth to second in our Power Rankings. Recent play is part of how these rankings are weighted, and Toronto certainly checks that box in terms of being elite. Toronto is also top 10 in goal differential and expected goal differential.

The Leafs kick off a five-game homestead Tuesday against Vegas and have an excellent opportunity to continue to make up ground on the teams they are chasing (Florida and Boston) in the Atlantic.

The Winnipeg Jets have also moved up on our list into the top three. Winnipeg won three of four games last week and has looked more like the elite team they’ve been most of the season lately.

The Jets are getting contributions from just about everywhere in their lineup. Defenceman Josh Morrissey led the team in scoring last week with nine assists. Kyle Connor scored in overtime Sunday night and posted four goals and four assists last week. New addition Sean Monahan had a hat trick and finished the week with four goals.

Losers of three of four games last week, the Edmonton Oilers are down one spot from sixth to seventh. Incredibly, the Oilers have allowed at least three goals in all of their games in February after not allowing three in a game once in January. So, is it defence, or goaltending, or both?

Edmonton ranks eighth in expected goals against in February and last in goals saved above expected this month. As was the case in October, better goaltending will go a long way in turning things around for Edmonton. The Oilers host the Kings Monday night in a pivotal game as these teams are tied in points with 68.

The Vancouver Canucks snapped their four-game losing streak with a win over Boston Saturday. However, it wasn’t enough to keep them from dropping on our list as the Canucks slid from fourth to eighth.

Vancouver still has the best goal differential in the league, despite ranking ninth in expected goal differential. This doesn’t mean the Canucks aren’t an elite team. Their shooting talent and goaltending are certainly strong enough to outperform in this area to some degree. It won’t be surprising to see Vancouver climb back into the top five on our list as early as next week.

Up two spots from 22nd to 20th are the Calgary Flames. Calgary went a perfect 3-0-0 last week with wins over the Jets, Bruins, and Oilers. Nazem Kadri led the way offensively for the Flames with four goals and six points. Jacob Markstrom continues his Vezina-calibre play, posting a goals saved above expected of 10.4 in the month of February – second only to Igor Shesterkin of the Rangers.

Standing pat in 21st are the Ottawa Senators. The Sens are coming off a solid week with wins over the Lightning, Stars and Golden Knights.

Ottawa has resembled the team many thought it would be this season lately, however, the hole it put itself in in the first few months of the season is too big to climb out of at this point. It will be interesting to see if Ottawa moves roster players like Vladimir Tarasenko out ahead of the upcoming trade deadline. 

Lastly, the Montreal Canadiens are down one spot from 27th to 28th. The Habs have lost five straight games and now sit last in the Atlantic Division.

In three games last week, the Canadiens only got three goals from forwards, with Nick Suzuki scoring two of them. Montreal is at home against Arizona Tuesday before hitting the road to face the Panthers in Florida on Thursday night.