Skip to main content

SCOREBOARD

Matthews preparing for life in a post-Marner world

Published

What impact does the departure of Mitch Marner have on Toronto Maple Leafs superstar Auston Matthews?

With questions about Marner’s future finally behind the Maple Leafs organization, Toronto’s focus this off-season appropriately shifted to fortifying the rest of their playoff-calibre lineup.

Replacing 100-point production is a tall order for any team in the league, but the freed up salary cap space did allow the Leafs to strengthen their forward depth, acquiring middle-six-calibre playmakers in Nicolas Roy and Matias Maccelli, to say nothing of the big Matthew Knies extension.

Toronto’s ultimate decision to break up the Core Four this summer will be analyzed for years to come, one way or another. But I’m intrigued by what the post-Marner world will mean for the face of this franchise in Matthews.

Does Matthews have enough new support around him to thrive at even strength? Who replaces Marner’s playmaking on the power play? Does this team become one that is more reliant on defensive pedigree and wherewithal, or is the hope that playmaking by committee can offset what Marner brought to the table individually?

Let’s explore the numbers, because they are fascinating. First, even strength:

Those who believed breaking up the core was essential and that Marner’s individual struggles were a key contributor to the team’s postseason woes will take solace in these numbers.

Matthews is a bona fide superstar, one of the most impactful attackers in the league, and this archetype of player typically dominates games with most any combination of linemates at 5-on-5. And that’s what you see here. Matthews’ game appears to skew more offensively with Marner away from him (typically featuring Marner on the second line).

Intuitively it makes sense – Marner’s calling card is that of a higher-end two-way forward who contributes meaningfully away from the puck, juxtaposed against Matthews’ incredible resilience scoring goals in every environment over the course of his career. Marner also won his minutes away from Matthews, but with a notable reduction in both goals scored and goals conceded.  

Looking into the 2025-26 season, you will surely see several different faces on Matthews’ wing. Knies should be glued to his hip, but players like Max Domi and the aforementioned Maccelli should get significant opportunity, with veteran John Tavares anchoring the second line. And until Toronto finds a recipe that works across their top six, I anticipate a good bit of line tinkering to start the year.

And if none of it works, they still have around $3 million in cap space to tinker with if they want to acquire another weapon — though restricted free agent Nick Robertson still needs a new deal.

Let’s turn to the power play, where I think the story is a bit more concerning:

There is a microscopic list of NHL players you would want on your first power-play unit than Matthews, a lethal shooter from anywhere in the offensive third. But the music he has made on the power play over the past few years directly tied to his chemistry with Marner. In the 100 minutes Matthews did not play with Marner on the man advantage, Toronto’s power play was a shell of itself, about 30 per cent less proficient in rate scoring.

Two caveats with this data set: this is a reasonably small sample of minutes, and some of this time may include shift-change anomalies where, for one reason or another, Marner left the ice and Matthews stayed on for an extended shift. But it’s still not a great look.

The personnel of the rest of the unit should at least have a similar look and feel — William Nylander, Tavares, and Knies should all be regular fixtures on Toronto’s top unit, likely along with Morgan Rielly. This is a team that tried five-forward deployments last season, so with Marner gone, it’s likely Rielly who will soak up more responsibility.

In short, this is still a very good hockey team even after Marner’s departure, and Matthews is such a sensational player he’s given the organization confidence he can play with just about anyone and win his minutes.

But the numbers are far less convincing in a post-Marner world on the power play, and if Toronto sees another step down in performance on the man advantage (a downturn that started mid-last year, and has been a persistent problem in the postseason, I should note), this organization’s divisional championship streak might end loudly at one.

Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey