Awarding an MVP for each first round series

The second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs has arrived, and, at this point, it’s reasonable to argue every remaining contender has a shot at winning the title.

Each first-round matchup was compelling, and though we had zero sweeps, some series were closer than others. To that end, I wanted to reflect on how we landed at this group of eight, and the player (or unit) most responsible for leading their team out of the first round.

Let’s start in the Eastern Conference and work our way west.

Toronto Maple Leafs (MVP: Chris Tanev)

Of the eight teams, this was the hardest single MVP to select.

Auston Matthews (and his line) dominated Ottawa at 5-on-5. William Nylander tallied nine points in six games. Goalie Anthony Stolarz was as good as you could have possibly hoped for.

But I keep coming back to this version of a Maple Leafs team that’s simply harder to score against these days. The organization has made a concerted effort to get better defensively, and Tanev is at the epicentre of that transition. These Leafs are a bit less flashy offensively, but the team gets dramatically more polished two-way play from skaters who can just as comfortably play with the puck as they can without it.

Tanev’s defensive numbers were sublime for the series considering the matchup. He won the head-to-head minutes (+2 goals at even strength) against Tim Stutzle and Brady Tkachuk, and generally throttled the top of Ottawa’s lineup with partner Jake McCabe:

Florida Panthers (MVP: Eetu Luostarinen)

Luostarinen drew headlines after his closeout performance in Game 5, scoring a goal and adding three assists to send Tampa Bay home in five games.

Anytime you get a McDavid-esque performance from a player in a single playoff game, your odds of advancing greatly improve. The same is true if you have a player whose line outscored the opposition by net six goals over the duration of the series, which, again, is true for Luostarinen.

An elite defensive forward playing with very capable two-way skaters in Anton Lundell and Brad Marchand steamrolled the Lightning’s depth forwards (predominantly the Nick Paul line) at even strength — the goal differentials here speak for themselves.

Washington Capitals (MVP: Logan Thompson)

You could have gone a few ways with recognition on the Washington side, but a big reason why this series never got beyond gentleman’s sweep territory was because Canadiens attackers had a whale of a time beating Washington’s 28-year-old netminder.

Thompson was handed the starter’s net in the series after playing in a platoon with Charlie Lindgren this year, and he delivered. Thompson stopped 92.3 per cent of Montreal’s shots in the series, and when you adjust his performance based on the shot profile he faced, Thompson erased nearly five Montreal goals in as many games. That’s a huge number and as good as it gets for goalies in round one:

Carolina Hurricanes (MVP: The Penalty Kill)

In 30 minutes of penalty killing action against the New Jersey Devils, Carolina conceded zero goals. And with Jordan Martinook’s shorthanded score, the Hurricanes actually advanced from round one with a positive goal differential from their penalty killing (+1), which is a remarkable achievement.

Carolina has been known for feisty (and ultra-aggressive, I would posit) penalty-kill units over the years. The freakish forward depth they have allows them to pair real two-way skill (think Seth Jarvis and Sebastian Aho) with established defensive forwards like Martinook and Jordan Staal. And because they have a stable of puck-moving defenders, any of Jaccob Slavin, Brent Burns, Dmitry Orlov, or Jalen Chatfield can ignite furious counterattacks in transition.

Their regular season penalty kill dominance (shot profile below, via HockeyViz) tortured an undermanned Devils team down Jack Hughes:

You never want to make a living killing penalties in the playoffs, but if one team is most setup to thrive in that environment, it’s Eric Tulsky’s club. And they’ll need it in round two against Alexander Ovechkin and company.

Dallas Stars (MVP: Mikko Rantanen)

Say what you will about Rantanen’s production since he arrived in Dallas – when the Stars needed him the most, the Finnish superstar delivered in an emphatic way with a Game 7 hat trick, eliminating the Colorado Avalanche in stunning fashion.

This series against Colorado was comically close. It seemed there was zero daylight separating the talent and capabilities of the two sides, which is why Rantanen’s Herculean Game 7 felt like such a difference maker.

Even setting the electric Game 7 aside, Mikko was a problem for Colorado most of the series. He finished round one with five goals (tied for second) and is tied with Winnipeg's Kyle Connor for the lead in playoff scoring.

Winnipeg Jets (MVP: Kyle Connor)

For two weeks, it felt like Winnipeg was headed for another disappointing first-round exit. Goaltender and Vezina Trophy-lock Connor Hellebuyck suddenly couldn’t make a save, and the Blues – one of the hottest teams down the stretch of the regular season – looked like a force capable of pulling off a remarkable upset.

But Connor’s scoring touch at the top of the lineup was enough to smooth over Hellebuyck’s mistakes, and Connor impressively did it with star forward Mark Scheifele sidelined due to injury late in the series.

Connor’s 12 points tie him with the aforementioned Rantanen for the scoring lead so far this postseason, and he saved his best for last: a three-assist performance in Game 7, including the primary on Cole Perfetti’s redirect goal with two seconds left to send the game to overtime.

Vegas Golden Knights (MVP: The Penalty Kill)

Bruce Cassidy had to breathe a sigh of relief once Game 6 went final — the Minnesota Wild played Vegas even at seemingly every level in the series, their first-line terrorizing the typically dominant even-strength units of the Golden Knights.

Ultimately it was special teams that saved the day in Nevada, but it wasn’t their second-ranked power play (10.8 goals per 60 minutes in the regular season) doing the heavy lifting. It was their penalty kill allowing just one goal on net over the course of the six-game series, with Minnesota’s underperforming regular-season power play doubled down and capitulated when it mattered most.

Adin Hill, Alex Pietrangelo, and Brayden McNabb deserve outsized credit for their heavy contributions on the kill.

But playing a disciplined even-strength game and keeping penalties from being called in the first place was the biggest tailwind here – just 28 total penalty minutes in round one, easily the lightest of the 16 teams.

Edmonton Oilers (MVP: Connor McDavid)

It’s going to be difficult (impossible?) to find any playoff series where the Oilers advance and McDavid wasn’t one of the biggest reasons why. But the data and tape told the same story about the Los Angeles Kings in their McDavid matchups — they have no answer.

For starters, I thought McDavid sent a harrowing shot across the bow in Game 1. The Kings won, thanks in large part to the Oilers seizing up defensively on every other shift. But McDavid went supernova to ignite a furious comeback, embarrassing several Kings veterans in the process.

To me, that performance set a tone for the rest of the series — the Kings as a team might be close on paper, but nothing in their personnel department right now is capable of slowing down hockey’s deadliest player. Aside from the 11 points (two goals; nine assists), McDavid routinely put every five-man unit from Los Angeles on their heels at even strength:

This is just silly on-ice dominance, and if the Oilers goaltenders were capable of stopping any sort of shot in the series, his real on-ice goal differential would have been in the stratosphere.

Enjoy the second round!

Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyDB