Maple Leafs in prime position heading into playoff matchup with Lightning

There has never been a more opportune time to draw the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Famous last words, I know. I think most of us have tremendous admiration for the Lightning organization – one of the most impressive franchises of the last decade, impressively managed from the top-down, with talent routinely deep enough to deliver a title contender.

And this year’s Bolts team is good. Maybe very good. Against a limited Toronto team last night, Tampa Bay looked more than game. But this version of the Lightning is the weakest we have seen in a few years, and for a Maple Leafs team that’s been eyeing this match-up since seemingly November, it’s a fantastic opportunity. (Or, perhaps, another dose of pressure a Toronto team did not need – we are still talking about a Maple Leafs franchise that hasn’t advanced out of the first round since 2004.)

But let’s talk about this Lightning team. They, much like the Maple Leafs, have coasted to a playoff berth – the only open question for most of the year was whether they would have home ice or be on the road in round one. That said, this season has progressed materially different than in years past. Consider just their play at even-strength over the last five seasons as an example:

The Lightning have been a bastion of success over this stretch and a lot of the reason is because they have plowed over teams at even strength. Over this stretch, there have only been a handful of instances – emphasis on the end of the 2022-23 season here – where Tampa Bay has seen their expected goals rate break below break-even. There have only been three instances where their real goal differentials have broken below break-even. And only once has it happened at the same time: right now.

There is another component about Tampa Bay that’s concerning relative to where they once were, and that’s the breadth in performance across their roster. This, at their peak, was the deepest team in the league. And they’re still quite good! But look at the observable weakness – generally borne from players further down the lineup – and how frequently they have been out-scored this season. That’s a far cry from years past, and different from 2019-20, their stars aren’t dominant enough to offset those losses:

We focus a lot on even-strength performance because it’s where the lion’s share of minutes are played and, generally speaking, Stanley Cup contenders differentiate themselves here. But we know the Lightning have a collection of playmakers and snipers up top that, in years past, has created a blistering power play attack. They also have one of the better goaltenders to enter the fray in the last two decades in the form of Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has anchored a quality penalty kill for years.

If we look at how Tampa Bay has created goal differentials by way of special teams, we see the Lightning are still quite a bit better than their opponents, but that advantage has been walked down considerably over the years:

For context, the Toronto Maple Leafs during the 2022-23 season sat at +1.3 goals on special teams per-60 minutes played, nearly double that of Tampa Bay. Both teams have fearsome power plays (3rd versus 4th respectively), but the penalty kill (4th versus 16th respectively) has created a significant gap.

All this to say: Tampa Bay is not going to roll over easy. Save for that grim, and still inexplicable, first-round loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets years ago, there hasn’t been a tougher post-season out than Jon Cooper’s club.

But if there were ever a time for the Maple Leafs to get over the proverbial hump, it’s right here, and right now. This is a series Toronto can win.

And maybe that’s “should” win, considering where the Lightning are right now. Talk about pressure for general manager Kyle Dubas, head coach Sheldon Keefe, and the rest of the Toronto organization. But it’s high time to deliver.

Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey