The Oilers should be all in on Karlsson

The Edmonton Oilers interest in San Jose defenceman Erik Karlsson is a two-sided coin.

One side of the coin concerns the package of assets the Oilers would be willing to part to land a 32-year-old blueliner who carries an $11.5-million dollar cap hit through 2026-27. That’s the sort of arithmetic that can give a front office some serious heartburn.

The other side of the coin concerns what the Oilers might be able to yield on the ice. Karlsson is a generational defenceman, perhaps the most gifted offensive blueliner in two decades. He instantly improves every team’s lineup, but the Oilers are already distinctly dominant as an offensive team. To that end, there is a debate about “fit” with Karlsson in Edmonton.

I bring up both points because the cost to acquire Karlsson may be too prohibitive in the end. But if there is a deal to be had, I think it’s an easy “yes” for general manager Ken Holland.

Not only do I see the addition of Karlsson as the Oilers leaning into creating the league’s deadliest offence, but I also think there is an argument that the Swede is one of a very small group of skaters – a group you can probably count on one hand – whose play could be additive to that of superstar Connor McDavid.

Karlsson’s resume speaks for itself, but he’s turned back the clock in a big way this season. Playing on an undermanned Sharks team, Karlsson is somehow sixth in league scoring (18 goals and 55 assists in 55 games) and comfortably first across all defencemen. But more notably, the territorial dominance that Karlsson has always exemplified – routinely transitioning teams out of his defensive third and igniting the attack with a blistering north-south game – is back, irrespective of teammate quality.

Let’s put an emphasis on that teammate quality component. Karlsson at his best can elevate the game of every player on the ice. Consider how he has impacted the play of teammates around him in San Jose relative to Oilers defenders and their impact on teammate play this season – I’ve included New York’s Adam Fox and Colorado’s Cale Makar just to underscore the calibre of a player we are talking about here:

There’s no question that these are staggering numbers. It’s hockey’s version of a rising tide lifting all boats.

Defensively, Karlsson has been adequate this season, which is the bar he usually needs to clear to be a dominant player. Because offensively, the Sharks are fundamentally different with him on the ice. If Karlsson is playing, the Sharks are one of the best teams in the league on the attack – a rebuilding team, I emphasize. When he’s on the bench, the Sharks offence is as hapless as anything you’ll find in Chicago or Arizona. (Comparison profile via HockeyViz):

That’s not true for Oilers defenders, who by and large only see dominant play when tied to the team’s top-six forwards. Defenders like Evan Bouchard have been great at driving play, but teammates aren’t yet creating decisive goal differential advantages from his play. On the other side of things, the team’s highest-paid defender in Darnell Nurse has a very muted effect – the performance of his teammates is indistinguishable whether they’re playing with or without Nurse on a given shift.

And that could prove to be of critical importance. For as much talk as there has been about improving the Oilers defensively and getting more physical, the reality is the Oilers’ core issue is that McDavid can only play 37 per cent of the game. That means an awful lot of minutes where the Oilers’ top line isn’t out there, and by extension, is vulnerable.

But whether it’s unlocking even more from players the calibre of McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, or being able to squeeze more advantage play from the second through fourth lines in Edmonton, adding Karlsson would yield significant on-ice returns.

From a risk-reward standpoint, I’m not sure there is a better time for the Oilers to go all in – their two stars are in their playing primes, the Western Conference is as weak as it’s been in years, and the path for Edmonton to return to the Stanley Cup is there.

Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey