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With 100-point season in sight, Canucks top Canadian teams in power ranking

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One more win and the Vancouver Canucks will hit the 100-point mark this season.

There weren’t many who would have predicted the Canucks would do so at the start of the season, but Vancouver has been proving the doubters wrong all year. Finally, our model is giving them the respect they deserve as the Canucks are our top-ranked Canadian team, sitting third on our list this week.

It’s starting to look more and more like the Canucks will win the Pacific Division. Vancouver is 10 points clear of second-place Edmonton and our model gives them a 94 per cent chance of taking the division crown.

That said, earning a first-round playoff matchup against a wild-card team won’t be the win it’s been in previous years. The two teams occupying those spots right now are the Nashville Predators, 15-0-2 in their past 17 games, and the defending champion Vegas Golden Knights, who are 5-2-0 since the trade deadline.

The Oilers remain fourth in our Power Rankings following a 2-2-0 week.

Connor McDavid continues to chase history, looking poised to become just the fourth player to hit 100 assists in a season. McDavid is on pace for 109 assists – only Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux have had more in a single season.

The Oilers face the Winnipeg Jets Tuesday and will host the Los Angeles Kings Thursday in what will likely be a preview of their first-round matchup. As it stands, there is a 69 per cent chance the two teams will meet in round one of the playoffs. Edmonton has won two of its three games against the Kings this season.

Up one spot from 11th to 10th this week are the Toronto Maple Leafs. Toronto posted a record of 2-2-0 last week, including an impressive 6-3 win over the Edmonton Oilers Saturday night.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are suddenly visible in the rear-view mirror, four points back of the Leafs for third spot in the Atlantic Division. That said, it is still far more likely than not the Leafs finish third, with our model giving them a 68 per cent chance of doing so and a 65 per cent chance of facing the Boston Bruins in the first round.

No Canadian team dropped farther in our rankings this week than the Jets, who fall from fifth to 11th on our list.

The Jets have lost three straight games and it’s looking more and more like it is now a two-horse race for top spot in the Central Division between the Avalanche and Stars. Winnipeg is four points behind both teams and has an eight per cent chance of winning its division according to our model.

The Jets win with defence, ranking second in goals against average but will they be able to score enough to win in the playoffs? Winnipeg ranks 18th in goals per game this season and 21st since the trade deadline.

Losers of three straight games, the Calgary Flames drop from 18th to 22nd on our list. With Dan Vladar out due to season-ending hip surgery, Dustin Wolf is taking advantage of his opportunity in the net. Wolf’s .930 save percentage in March ranks sixth amongst goalies with at least five games played.

The Ottawa Senators are up one spot from 24th to 23rd thanks to back-to-back wins. Joonas Korpisalo, who has had a disappointing season in net for the Sens, played back-to-back games Saturday and Sunday, earning wins in both by stopping 51 of the 56 shots he faced. 

Lastly, the Montreal Canadiens are up two spots from 30th to 28th after finishing their 1-1-1 week on a high note with a 5-1 win in Seattle.

Nick Suzuki scored his 28th goal of the season as he continues to fill the net at even strength. Since Feb. 1, only Zach Hyman has more even-strength goals than Suzuki’s 13.

 

Power Ranking - March 25

 
RK Team Last Week Record Avg. Goal Diff  xGoal Diff PT%
1 Colorado Avalanche 1 46-20-5 .79 .60 .683
2 Carolina Hurricanes 2 45-20-7 .76 .67 .674
3 Vancouver Canucks 6 45-18-8 .87 .36 .690
4 Edmonton Oilers 4 42-23-4 .67 1.06 .638
5 Nashville Predators 10 42-25-4 .32 .42 .620
6 New York Rangers 7 47-20-4 .66 .32 .690
7 Dallas Stars 9 44-19-9 .65 .41 .674
8 Florida Panthers 3 46-20-5 .82 .71 .683
9 Los Angeles Kings 13 37-22-11 .57 .35 .607
10 Toronto Maple Leafs 11 40-21-9 .50 .31 .636
11 Winnipeg Jets 5 44-22-5 .65 .26 .655
12 Boston Bruins 8 41-16-15 .57 .22 .674
13 Tampa Bay Lightning 14 39-25-7 .17 .16 .599
14 Vegas Golden Knights 15 38-25-7 .23 .21 .593
15 Minnesota Wild 12 34-28-9 -.14 .31 .542
16 New Jersey Devils 23 35-33-4 -.11 .23 .514
17 St. Louis Blues 19 38-30-3 -.15 -.18 .556
18 Pittsburgh Penguins 16 30-30-10 -.11 .37 .500
19 Buffalo Sabres 17 34-33-5 -.01 -.37 .507
20 Philadelphia Flyers 21 36-27-9 -.12 -.02 .562
21 Detroit Red Wings 26 36-29-6 .06 -.36 .549
22 Calgary Flames 18 33-32-5 -.11 -.08 .514
23 Ottawa Senators 24 30-36-4 -.39 0 .457
24 Washington Capitals 20 35-26-9 -.39 -.30 .564
25 Arizona Coyotes 27 29-37-5 -.41 -.47 .444
26 Seattle Kraken 25 28-29-13 -.29 -.29 .493
27 New York Islanders 22 30-26-15 -.34 -.41 .528
28 Montreal Canadiens 30 26-32-12 -.69 -.76 .457
29 Columbus Blue Jackets 28 23-36-12 -.77 -.73 .408
30 Chicago Blackhawks 29 20-46-5 -1.39 -.85 .317
31 Anaheim Ducks 31 24-43-4 -1.1 -.85 .366
32 San Jose Sharks 32 16-46-8 -1.8 -1.32 .286