Scorching Rantanen has Stars soaring
Published
How hot is Mikko Rantanen right now? In one word: scorching.
The Dallas Stars entered the Stanley Cup Playoffs with some of the shortest championship odds and, three games into the second round, it appears justified.
They dispatched the feisty Colorado Avalanche in round one and now sit with a 2-1 lead (and home-ice advantage) over the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Winnipeg Jets.
The Jets, much like the Avalanche before them, have had a whale of a time against this deep, skilled Stars lineup. With so much weaponry, head coach Peter DeBoer doesn’t have to load up his first line and can lean into groupings with complementary skill sets and playing chemistry.
That lets the Stars come at you in waves. After they send in a deadly trio of young attackers (Mason Marchment, Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston), you get to deal with either a line of incredibly experienced and seasoned postseason performers (Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn and Matt Duchene), or an all-Finn line featuring Rantanen, Roope Hintz, and Mikael Granlund:
I wanted to highlight the groupings because it gives you an idea how difficult it’s been to line match for Avs coach Jared Bednar and Jets coach Scott Arniel, and this is all before we get to special teams play.
At any rate, the challenge of slowing down balanced lines like this is most teams simply run out of trusted personnel, and by extension it opens doors for opposing playmakers.
Enter Rantanen. The famous trade deadline acquisition from Carolina has comfortably been the best player of the playoffs. The individual scoring is berserk: he has nine goals and nine assists (18 points) in just 10 games. He’s also contributed on 15 of the past 17 Stars goals, a staggering Connor McDavid-esque number.
That sort of scoring in any postseason has few parallels. I looked for any postseason skater with at least 200 minutes played (and by extension, at least two rounds played) to measure how absurd this run has been. These are the only skaters you’ll find:
In Rantanen's case, it's not just empty individual scoring. Rantanen’s 60 per cent goal share (+4 even-strength goal differential) leads the entire Stars lineup, and again, this production coming against two high-end teams in Colorado and Winnipeg.
The beautiful wrinkle with this Stars team versus some of the respective clubs on this table comes down to defensive play. Some of these forwards had little choice but to play ultra-aggressively on the attack to chase goals, the concern being that besieged and leaky defensive play or netminding would give those goals right back.
Behind a veteran defence and goalie Jake Oettinger, Stars’ leads are typically safe. It’s what makes Dallas such a credible threat to win it all.
Dallas and Rantanen still have some work to do — closing out this series against Winnipeg won’t come easy unless Connor Hellebuyck struggles to find his game, and right after that comes a seven-game gauntlet with one of the Edmonton Oilers or Vegas Golden Knights.
But right now, you have to imagine there’s a smile ear to ear on the face of Stars general manager Jim Nill. His aggressive move to acquire Rantanen and extend him on a $96-million mega contract will be measured over years, but at this moment in time, it looks like the deal of a lifetime.
Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey