The door has cracked open in the Atlantic Division

What if a first-round matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning wasn’t preordained?

For months, fans in Toronto and Tampa Bay have been preparing themselves for a first-round rematch – owing in part to Boston’s stranglehold on the Atlantic Division, and in part to a playoff format that forces the two and three seeds within a division to square off in the opening round. Considering the dominance of both teams over the past few regular seasons, plus the postseason pedigree of the Lightning, it was setting the stage for a significant clash.

But something alarming is happening in Florida. For the first time in years, the Lightning are really pressing. Jon Cooper’s team is 2-5-3 in its past 10 games, which included benching multiple stars in a 5-3 defeat to the Buffalo Sabres on Saturday and a six-goal liquidation at the hands of the Carolina Hurricanes on Sunday.

There is, in this case, cause for alarm. Consider the degradation in Tampa Bay’s recent play relative to the dominance we are accustomed to:

The Lightning have been eviscerating the competition for the past five seasons, equal parts a dominant offence and stifling defence backstopped by Andrei Vasilevskiy. What’s remarkable is the only notable stretch where the Lightning came under any sort of pressure was during the pandemic-impacted 2020-21 regular season. You may remember that as the year they played without superstar Nikita Kucherov and also won another Stanley Cup.

But this season feels different. The Lightning’s goal differential since the turn of the calendar year (irrespective of looking at just even-strength or all-situations play) is +0, good enough for 15^th in the National Hockey League. There are no simple and easy explanations: expected goals are in line with real goals (the Lightning are 16^th in the NHL since the new year), and both shooting and save percentages are hovering near league average.

Simply put, they look the part of an average hockey team right now. And with defenceman Victor Hedman injured, concern is mounting.

This Tampa Bay slump is unlikely to drive them out of playoff contention – the Bolts are still playing at a 103-point pace, so even after this losing stretch there is still margin for error. But that fated Maple Leafs and Lightning matchup? It’s still on. For now.

I say for now because two hard-charging, invigorated young clubs in the Buffalo Sabres and Ottawa Senators are doing their best to chase down a playoff spot. The Sabres are 6-4-0 in their past 10 games, nine points back of Tampa Bay with two games in hand. The Senators are 7-2-1 in their past 10 games, nine points back of Tampa Bay with a game in hand. Notably, both have seen significant upgrades in their playoff odds.

Considering their positioning, it would be far easier for the Sabres and Senators – who it must be said, are also competing against one another – to chase down one of the two wild-card spots currently occupied by the Islanders (72 points) and Penguins (71 points). But if Buffalo and Ottawa’s improvement is real, and Tampa Bay’s decay is also real, the Atlantic Division may not look at season’s end how we thought it would back in October.

Chasing down Tampa Bay isn’t as unrealistic as one would think. By goal differentials, both teams have already closed the gap, and there are still 20 games left in the season:

In short: keep your eye on the Atlantic Division. If Tampa Bay’s slippage in the standings is real, and Buffalo and Ottawa continue their surge, this could get interesting in a hurry. Considering how all three teams are playing right now, we could be primed for a very compelling finish to this regular season in the Atlantic – something that seemed implausible just two months ago.

The door has cracked open

Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference