Olney: 'I think absolutely the Jays have the AL East'

With no clear frontrunner this year in the American League, the Toronto Blue Jays appear to have as good of a shot as any to advance to their first World Series since 1993. 

Following Monday's 10-4 win over the visiting Minnesota Twins, the Blue Jays hold a five-game lead over the Boston Red Sox and a 5.5-game lead over the New York Yankees for top spot in the AL East with 30 games remaining in the regular season. 

According to FanGraphs, the Blue Jays have an 81.1 per cent of winning the division title for the first time since 2015.

Despite the Red Sox playing better as of late and the Yankees having a easier schedule down the stretch, ESPN's Buster Olney agrees the division is Toronto's to lose. 

"I think absolutely the Jays have the AL East," Olney said Tuesday morning on TSN 1050's First Up. 

"When you have this type of lead with a month to go, it's pretty tough to blow it. The fact that the Blue Jays are getting such great production, George Springer is healthy, Bo Bichette is swinging the bat well, they got Vladdy back in the lineup, it's hard to imagine them giving that many games back."

Boosting the Blue Jays' chances of winning the AL East this year is the addition of former CY Young winner Shane Bieber. 

The 30-year-old pitcher was masterful Friday against the Miami Marlins in his first start since having Tommy John surgery as a member of the Cleveland Guardians in April of 2024. 

Bieber, who was acquired from the Guardians last month in exchange for promising pitching prospect Khal Stephen, allowed just one run and two hits alongside nine strikeouts and no walks over six innings in Friday's debut. 

His next start comes Friday night when the MLB-leading Milwaukee Brewers (82-50) are in town for a three-game set. 

"What we saw the other night [vs. Marlins] was essentially a Cy Young Award winner being dropped into the rotation. I mean that's how good he was. This Friday, when he takes the mound against the Brewers, what an atmosphere that's going to be because you know he's going to get a great reception. The Brewers are a really good team. It's going to be a great test," said Olney.

"I've talked to a number of people over the last week asking them the question: Can they think of another example of a guy coming back from this particular surgery and being this good right from the outset? No one I've spoken to has come up with another name."

Olney says the Bieber trade could end up being the difference maker for the Jays once the season comes to a close.  

"To have a guy come off the injured list and be this good is absolutely remarkable," he said. "You do wonder, in the end when we look back at the trade deadline, this could be the best trade made by any team."

Who's the AL MVP?

This year's American MVP race will come down to two players: Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees and Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners. 

Judge, who already has won two MVPs in 2022 and 2024, is hitting .323 with 40 home runs and 93 RBIs alongside a .439 on-base percentage and a 1.106 OPS. 

The 28-year-old Raleigh is having a career season, hitting .247 with 107 RBIs and a MLB-leading 50 homers. 

Olney says it will come down to who hits better in September. 

"I think it's a coin flip right now," said Olney.

While some believe it may be Judge's award to win given his history and all-around elite numbers, Olney says Raleigh may have a better chance than some are giving him credit for. 

"I've voted for the award in the past and I know how voters think. The fact that Cal Raleigh is a preeminent defensive catcher, like this is not Mike Piazza, who hit a lot of home runs and doing a lot of offence, but not very good defensively,” Olney said.

“[Raleigh] is a really good defensive catcher, a switch hitter, and there's a chance, with 50 home runs now, he's going to challenge Aaron Judge's American League record for home runs in a single season set a few years ago when he hit 62. How incredible would that be? I think Raleigh is going to win the award because I still have my doubts about whether or not Aaron is actually healthy with that elbow issue."

Both the Yankees and Mariners are currently holding a Wild Card spot in the American League.