Bellus’ Betting Breakdown: The Eagles’ Case to Win the NFC East

The NFC East is a fascinating division. 

While some stats and trends are worth rolling your eyes at, the fact that no team has won this division in back-to-back years since 2004 is noteworthy. 

Last year the Dallas Cowboys pulled away from the field, winning 12 games and taking the division by three games. 

One thing that helped Dallas last season was their 6-0 record within the division. Oddly enough, that was the first time a team went undefeated in this division since… 2004. 

Last season, this Philadelphia Eagles team was able to make the playoffs, despite opening the season with just two wins in the first six weeks. 

But something changed after Week 6, and the Eagles have been a totally different team since (more on that later). 

And now things seem to be breaking their way. 

Dallas has gotten worse on both sides of the ball.
Washington, while getting healthy on defence will provide a boost, I’m having a hard time wrapping my head around. Carson Wentz suddenly feeling comfortable in this division again. 

New York / Daniel Jones simply can’t be trusted, need I say more?  

This feels like a natural progression in Hurts’ career, with this season being the first divisional title he can add to his resume. 

Mid-season adjustment could lead to success in 2022

Through six weeks last year, Philly was the third-most pass-heavy team at 64 per cent. 

But teams begged the Eagles to run the ball. 

According to Warren Sharp, through Week 6, on early downs in the first three quarters, defences presented light boxes against the Eagles at a 68 per cent rate. 

Light boxes typically means more defenders are playing coverage, not only making it harder to pass, but easier to run. 

For context,  the league average of teams being presented with light boxes in those situations was 51 per cent. 

Everything changed in Week 8 when the team ran for 236 yards against the Detroit Lions. 

It was the first time in the season that they rushed for more than 175 yards in a game as a team, but they’d go on to achieve that total another six times. 

So what changed? 

From Weeks 8-18 the Eagles ran the ball on 58 per cent of early downs in the first three quarters. It was the most run-heavy rate in the NFL. And they ended the season with the best running offence in the league.

While some of that success on the ground is thanks to Hurts, the success in the run game will also open up further opportunities for him to have success through the air. 

Speaking of Jalen Hurts…. 

I believe in Jalen Hurts 

We can talk about all the X’s and O’s we  want. 

But this team is going to live and die with Hurts. 

I’ve considered myself a fan of Hurts since his time at Alabama. 

Watching how he handled being benched during a national championship, and seeing how great of a teammate he was that night, told me everything I needed to know about his character. 

When he followed that up the next season at Oklahoma with 3,800 passing yards, and a total of 52 touchdowns, I was all in. 

I’ve seen Hurts win big games in college, and in the NFL I've seen him quarterback a team to the playoffs as a second-year starter. 

I understand this will come across as a reach, but Hurts appears to be on a similar arc to Josh Allen. 

After his first 19 starts, Hurts has a better completion percentage, thrown for more yards, averages 10 more rushing yards per game, has thrown seven fewer interceptions, and has three fewer fumbles…. Pretty much everything. 

That third year with the Buffalo Bills changed everything for Allen. 

He posted career-highs in pretty much every stat possible, and finished second in MVP voting. 

If Hurts can somehow take a leap in Year 3 that’s anything similar to Allen’s…. Watch out. 

One way Hurts might be able to take that jump is at the line of scrimmage. 

Last season, the Eagles averaged 0.04 expected points per rush in Weeks 8-18 against heavy boxes. 

In those same situations, they averaged 0.34 expected points per pass. 

Philly ranked fourth in EPA/att when passing the ball versus these heavy boxes but they were still the 10th-most run-heavy team in these situations.

A natural progression for Hurts is giving him more control of this offence.

Philly needs to let him come to the line with two plays and audible to a pass if an opportunity to run against a stacked defence needs to be audibled out of.

A.J. Brown Addition

Remember that Year 3 Jump Josh Allen made? 

It just so happened to overlap with the addition of Stefon Diggs, a Pro Bowl wide receiver. 

Now, Pro Bowl wideout A.J. Brown has arrived in Philadelphia and provides a level of offence they’ve been missing. 

Brown has eclipsed 1,000  yards receiving in two of his first three seasons in the league and last season his 66.8 yards per game had him on pace for yet another. 

But injuries forced him to miss some time and Brown ended the year with 869 yards in just 13 games. 

Brown should do a good job off taking the attention away from DeVonta Smith, who impressed last season with his 916 receiving yards and five touchdowns as a rookie.