Blue Jays look like a team that has found its identity

I guess I was the problem. I went out of the country for about 10 days and the Blue Jays went from third place to first.

What a dramatic turnaround. They finally had that winning streak that has been so elusive over the past couple of years. That hot streak coincided with the Yankees and Rays cooling off and losing some games.

But the reality in baseball is that what goes up usually comes down, and what is down usually goes up again. So, are the Jays truly a 54-39 quality team or are they just a team that was hot and will now fall back to the pack again?

My eyes tell me that they are playing like a high-quality baseball team. They have found a rhythm in their game. The starting pitchers limit the opposition; the Jays score early and get a lead; their pitchers become more aggressive and willing to throw the ball over the plate and work ahead; the hitters become aggressive and confident – they run the bases aggressively and become willing to take an extra base; the defence makes plays behind the pitchers; the relievers come in and shut down any rallies from the opponent; and the Jays victoriously shake hands at the end of the game.

The Jays look different. Their posture is different. They are smiling. There are no more hangdog looks on their faces after a strikeout while watching the iPad video of their at-bats.  The players in the dugout are rooting for each other. There is a positive energy. There is chatter and choreographed handshakes.

It looks and feels different. It looks like this is who they really are as a team. It feels like they have finally found their identity.

The numbers tell a bit of a different story

The numbers tell a bit of a different story, however. The Jays are in first place with a franchise-best 54 wins before the All-Star break. They are on pace to win 94 games. But they have only outscored their opponents by 20 runs. That run differential would generally lead to a 49-44 record.

The Yankees (52-41) have outscored the opposition by 106 runs, which would lead to an expected won-loss record of 57-36. The Tampa Bay Rays (50-44) should have a 54-40 record with their +66 run differential. Even the Red Sox (50-45) should have a 53-42 record with a +56 run-differential. Based upon those numbers, the Jays should be a fourth-place team. But the standings aren’t based upon run differential.

The numbers do indicate that the Jays have had some good timing. Their losses have been by a greater margin than their wins, generally. Statistically, there is a belief that as the sample size grows the run differential will more directly correlate to a team’s record. But there are anomalies that happen all the time.

I say all of this to indicate that the Jays need to get better if they are going to remain on top of the division. This means they need the current group of overachievers (George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Ernie Clement, Addison Barger, Davis Schneider and Nathan Lukes) to keep performing at such a high level and Bo Bichette and Vladimir Gurrero Jr. to step up their performance to an elite level.  

Bichette is getting his hits. He ranks fourth in the American League. The Jays’ shortstop needs to start slugging the ball like he is capable of doing.

The biggest improvement though, needs to come from Guerrero. It’s not that he has been bad. He has been pretty good, actually. But that isn’t the standard by which he should be evaluated. He is the $500-million man. He needs to be a star – I don’t mean an All-Star, I mean a superstar. He needs to be the type of player that will carry the team for a month.  He needs to be what Shohei Ohtani is for the Dodgers, Aaron Judge is to the Yankees, Juan Soto is to the Mets, and Jose Ramirez is to the Guardians.

A plan for the trade deadline

In addition to Guerrero and Bichette getting better, the Jays will need Anthony Santander and Daulton Varsho to be real contributors in the second half. They need to just be who they’ve been throughout their careers – nothing more. Santander needs to be a legitimate run-producing, switch-hitting slugger in the middle of the lineup and Varsho needs to be a power and speed threat and play great centre-field defence.

Because the Jays have Santander and Varsho coming back, they’re unlikely look to at adding a bat at the trade deadline. They need to add pitching. There are a couple of different ways they can go.

They can add a front-line starting pitcher and then a lesser reliever (or two), or they can add a lesser starter and a then a front-line closer.

For instance, the Arizona Diamondbacks may become sellers in the NL West. If so, starting pitchers Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly would impact the front of the rotation. If the Jays land one of them in a trade, then a reliever like Griffin Jax from Minnesota, Dylan Lee from Atlanta, Hunter Gaddis from Cleveland or Kenley Jansen from the Angels would fit in the pen.

If adding a front-of-the-rotation starter is cost prohibitive the Jays could look to acquire a lesser starter like Adrian Houser from the White Sox or Tyler Mahle of the Texas Rangers.

But if that is the case, then I would want major impact at the end of the game. I would want to acquire a top closer and push Jeff Hoffman earlier in the game for high-leverage situations. There are reports that the Guardians might make their closer, Emmanuel Clase, available. Ryan Helsley of the Cardinals and Jhoan Duran of the Twins are also legitimate options to consider.

Springer gets snubbed

Springer is quite possibly the biggest All-Star snub. He has been the MVP of the first-place Blue Jays in the first half of the season. He has hit for average and power and has run the bases extremely well. He has also been an extraordinary leader.

Springer has performed better than Steven Kwan, Julio Rodriguez and Javier Baez. It isn’t even close. I’m not wishing an injury on anyone but I am still holding out hope that he gets his recognition as a replacement.

The fan-based vote can be a popularity contest, and it looks like Detroit Tiger fans rallied for their guys as Gleyber Torres, Riley Greene, and Baez all made the starting lineup.

Springer didn’t get love from the players’ vote either though. I don’t believe there is any lingering effect of the Astros sign-stealing scandal that is attached to Springer’s consideration. I just don’t think his first-half performance has been discussed enough south of the border.

Rodriguez has been a serious disappointment so far this season, but there is charisma and name recognition that is attached to him. Players assumed he should be an All-Star, and you know what happens when you assume things.