Rebuilding Raptors have seventh best odds of winning NBA Draft Lottery
Published
Masai Ujiri and the Toronto Raptors are hoping luck will be on their side heading into Monday's NBA Draft Lottery in Chicago.
After posting a 30-52 record in 2024-25, the Raptors will have the seventh best odds (7.5 per cent) to capture the first overall pick and the opportunity to draft Duke superstar Cooper Flagg.
The Utah Jazz (17-65), Washington Wizards (18-64) and Charlotte Hornets (19-63) share the best odds to win the lottery at 14 per cent.
Watch the NBA Draft Lottery LIVE on TSN2 at 7pm ET/4pm PT on TSN2, TSN.ca and the TSN App.
Toronto cannot end up with the fifth or sixth picks. They have a 31.9 per cent to earn a top four selection and a 68.1 per cent of remaining at seven or dropping down further:
First overall pick: 7.5 percent
Second overall pick: 7.8 percent
Third overall pick: 8.1 percent
Fourth overall pick: 8.5 percent
Seventh overall pick: 19.7 percent
Eighth overall pick: 34.1 percent
Ninth overall pick: 12.9 percent
10th overall pick: 1.3 percent
The Raptors' odds of landing the top pick isn't high, but looking back at last year's lottery results, the Atlanta Hawks won the first pick despite having the 10th-best odds at 3 per cent.
Raptors' Lottery History
The Raptors have won the Draft Lottery twice - first in 1996 and then again a decade later in 2006.
After their inaugural season in 1995-96, the Raptors won the 1996 Drafty Lottery, but were forced to surrender the first overall pick to the No. 2 team due to an expansion agreement made with the NBA.
This led the Philadelphia 76ers to select future Hall of Famer Allen Iverson first overall while the Raptors took Marcus Camby, who ended up playing just two seasons in Toronto.
The 1996 NBA Draft also featured Ray Allen going to the Milwaukee Bucks (via the Minnesota Timberwolves), Kobe Bryant to the Los Angeles Lakers (via the Charlotte Hornets) and Canadian Steve Nash to the Phoenix Suns
Toronto finished the 2005-06 season with a 27-55 record, giving them them the fifth best odds to win the lottery. They did just that and proceeded to select Italian big man Andrea Bargnani first overall. Bargnani played seven seasons in Toronto, never living up to the lofty - and arguably unfair - expectations of his first pick status.
Over 15 entries in the NBA Draft Lottery, the Raptors have jumped up in the draft order on just three occasions and fallen four times.
Here's a full look back at the Raptors' draft lottery history.
Raptors at the NBA Draft Lottery
| Year | Team Record | Odds for No. 1 Pick | Pre-Lottery Position | Pick Result | Pick Change | Player Selected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | Expansion | 0% * | 7th | 7 | - | Damon Stoudamire |
| 1996 | 21-61 | 0% * | 3rd | 2 | +1 | Marcus Camby |
| 1997 | 30-52 | 0% * | 9th | 9 | - | Tracy McGrady |
| 1998 | 16-66 | 0% * | 2nd | 4 | -2 | Antawn Jamison (Traded for Vince Carter) |
| 1999 | 23-27 | 0.7% | 11th | 12 | -1 | Alek Radojevic |
| 2003 | 24-58 | 15.7% | 3rd | 4 | -1 | Chris Bosh |
| 2004 | 33-49 | 3.7% | 8th | 8 | - | Rafael Araújo |
| 2005 | 33-49 | 3.6% | 7th | 7 | - | Charlie Villanueva |
| 2006 | 27-55 | 8.8% | 5th | 1 | +5 | Andrea Bargnani |
| 2009 | 33-49 | 1.7% | 9th | 9 | - | DeMar DeRozan |
| 2010 | 40-42 | 0.6% | 13th | 13 | - | Ed Davis |
| 2011 | 22-60 | 15.6% | 3rd | 5 | -2 | Jonas Valanciunas |
| 2012 | 23-43 | 3.5% | 8th | 8 | - | Terrence Ross |
| 2021 | 27-45 | 7.5% | 7th | 4 | +3 | Scottie Barnes |
| 2023 | 41-41 | 1% | 13th | 13 | - | Gradey Dick |
* As an expansion team, the Raptors were ineligible to win the lottery for a number of years after entering the league in 1994-95. They won the 1996 Draft Lottery, but were forced to surrender the pick to the 76ers.
Potential Draft Selections for Toronto
The Raptors are currently in a rebuilding phase with their memorable run to the 2019 championship now in the rear-view mirror.
A player like Cooper Flagg would definitely accelerate their plan to be postseason contenders, but the chances of that happening is more of a dream than a reality, meaning the front office likely has their eyes on some other potential contributors.
Here's a look at who may go in the top 10, according to ESPN's list of 100 prospects.
1 - Cooper Flagg, SF/PF, Duke
19.2 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 4.2 APG, 48.1 FG%
2 - Dylan Harper, PG/SG, Rutgers
19.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 4.0 APG, 48.4 FG%
3 - Ace Bailey, SG/SF, Rutgers
17.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 1.3 APG, 46% FG%
4 - VJ Edgecombe, SG, Baylor
15.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 3.2 APG, 43.6 FG%
5 - Jeremiah Fears, PG, Oklahoma
17.1 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 4.1 APG, 43.4 FG%
6 - Tre Johnson, SG, Texas
19.9 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 2.7 APG, 42.7% FG%
7 - Kasparas Jakucionis, PG, Illinois
15.0 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 4.7 APG, 44% FG%
8 - Khaman Maluach, C, Duke
8.6 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 0.5 APG, 71.2 FG%
9 - Kon Knueppel, SG/SF, Duke
14.4 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 2.7 APG, 47.9 FG%
10 - Derik Queen, C, Maryland
16.5 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 1.9 APG, 52.6 FG%